SW2Fiddler
We Are Cognitive Dissidents
What I would love is for @arnolddeleon to weigh in with knowledge experience and data. Arnold I know you have to have been watching the TM / SCTY show unfold...
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A lot of shorting is going on. Shares available to short at Fidelity were depleted by 166K within first 20 min of trading. The question is how much ammo they've got left and whether this would be enough to dissuade buyers. I think they will loose this one
This is exactly right. This is Elon's iPad following up on the iPhone (Model S). Creating excitement and demand for something that didn't previously exist in any meaningful way. I've never ever gotten excited about a roof, but I know with certainty when I buy or build a house it's going to have one of these roofs one way or another (even if it's 3x as expensive as an asphalt roof).
Remember all those people driving Priuses and Camrys before buying a 2-3x expensive Model S? Yeah, these are the same people who will dig deep to step up from an asphalt roof to a Tesla roof.
The difference here should be even more dramatic - there's a relatively smaller pool of people who previously did not see value in owning a more expensive car...there's a "car culture" and status considerations that naturally pushed a good chunk of people to buy nice cars well before Tesla existed. People use cars every day and can appreciate additional performance, luxury, etc. For roofs, I think the pool of people previously striving to have a premium roof for cache or whatever is very small. Not many dig deep and budget for a premium roof - they just get the cheap, utilitarian solution. This roof will change all that. It looks nice and has "performance" that lowers your bills. It's also right on trend - people seem to be spending more on houses than ever, we have tv networks dedicated to home design and remodeling, etc. The more I think about this, the more I love the move.
I am not surprised. They actually started earlier this time. They usually reserve the hammer until close to 9:00
Krugerrand
Meow
Nice try folks,to crack some jokes.I've seen this drama with Powerwall last year. This is just deja vu for me. There were many like you two, claiming $100M TE revenue by December of last year. If you have been investing in TSLA since your join dates, you haven't made much unless you were trading the ups and downs like me
Let's check again when the ordering page opens for these new miracle tiles, ok? Till that time, it's just speculation vs. realism.
a) I have never claimed anything about TE revenue. Ever.
b) *rolling eyes* on the whole "I'll take a WAG that they invested in TSLA the day they joined the forum and therefore I know I've made more money, which totally makes me the better, smarter person. Speculation vs realism much? (However, you couldn't have looked at my join date real closely, eh?)
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Krugerrand
Meow
Might make sense to add a Solar Tile factory section to that European Gigafactory when the time comes?
I believe it is a typo. Another source shows that the price target is $338.
In any case, Baird is fun to read (and so is Cowen for bears). But firms like these have no sway in market what so ever in my view. If anything at all, big wall street investment banks may have some sway as they have relationships with big/institutional investors.
Here are the current ratings and price targets coming from big investment banks.
Firm.....Recommendation....Price Target
Morgan Stanley....Equalwt/Cautious....245
RBC.....................Sector Perform........220
Goldman Sachs...Neutral/cautious......190
J.P.Morgan..........Underweight............180
Barclays..............Underweight............165
UBS.....................Sell..........................160
Not a single Buy rating... hmmm....
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
They won't need to beat asphalt shingles to sell more than they can make ever. Their shingles without Solar are cheaper than their shingles with Solar so those are obviously less than clay or concrete shingles and they look better and are stronger. So if you have a shaded Roof, they will be compelling without Solar. Huge, huge market.
We'll know that the big institutions have finished selling the shares that they purchased in order to avoid forced recalls when the SP starts going up.
This is a puzzling claim, since the primary cost of traditional permanent roofing is labor.
What has changed between the shorts and TSLA now is that time is no longer on their side. When the Q3 delivery numbers were released and the Q3 ER came out, longs like myself were looking to take some profits before reducing exposure a bit because of the presidential election and the SCTY merger vote. Longs saw potential negatives ahead. Now, these factors are gone, and replaced with the very real likelihood that Q4 delivery numbers and Q4 ER could be very good. Tesla Energy is cranking up and Model 3 remains on schedule while drawing closer. Time is now working against the shorts. Further, there's no black cloud hanging over Tesla any more. At some point TSLA breaks out to the upside. It's only a matter of time.
Labor cost is not a constant but a function of 'hardness' of a task.
Less work, lighter work can result in less labor and less labor cost.
Appears in the first hour of trading a delivery of vegetarian pies has been delivered by WS while the train with steaks remains off in the horizon.
What we have seen and heard in terms of the roofs is truly remarkable, mind blowing stuff. One of the best gifts for long term investors.
Having said that, I believe market will not give one cent of a credit for any of it in the near term. Tesla will not only have to roll it out but actually show it in the top line and bottom line as material numbers to get any credit. I believe that is probably more than an year away.
Think about it, storage is on the cusp of a take off but market seems to act like it doesn't even exist. The numbers for storage are much more digestible and project'able than this roof stuff. If storage doesn't get any love from market, what luck do we have with roofs?
Having said that, I believe market will not give one cent of a credit for any of it in the near term. Tesla will not only have to roll it out but actually show it in the top line and bottom line as material numbers to get any credit. I believe that is probably more than an year away.
Think about it, storage is on the cusp of a take off but market seems to act like it doesn't even exist. The numbers for storage are much more digestible and project'able than this roof stuff. If storage doesn't get any love from market, what luck do we have with roofs?
So far everything Musk has said he would do he has done except he has been a little late occasionally. So if he says it will be cheaper than traditional roof even before solar generation is considered, then it will be, it's just a matter of when.
Clearly it is the labor component in construction they have been targeting, to make this claim. It must be some kind of insta-roof.
Clearly it is the labor component in construction they have been targeting, to make this claim. It must be some kind of insta-roof.
Krugerrand
Meow
They're probably sipping room temp red wine with AIMc. Just watching and waiting. I think most people fit in that category. The next largest group think it won't ever work/not going to happen/it'll blow up. The smallest group know the final outcome with a certainty they can't explain.
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1) None of the lawsuits attempting to stop the merger have any merit.
2) Shareholders and leading independent firms overwhelmingly support the merger.
3) Shareholders had the opportunity to ask all the questions they could possibly have about the merger.
3) Elon's comment about Solar Roof costing the same as a non Solar Roof is huge.
4) Did Elon say Model 3 production would begin in about 3 months?
5) Even if Trump increases subsidies for Coal and new oil exploration, and eliminates subsidies for Solar, (a very unlikely scenario that would be extremely idiotic and probably illegal), demand for the Model 3, and SolarCity roofs won't be effected.
5a) If Trump cut incentives for EVs and Solar and increased incentives for oil, coal, etc. he would be killing all automobile manufacturers except for Tesla.
6) Elon's comment about the supply chain for roofs being extremely inefficient is very interesting and almost guarantees SolarCity roofs will cost a lot less than anyone thinks.
2) Shareholders and leading independent firms overwhelmingly support the merger.
3) Shareholders had the opportunity to ask all the questions they could possibly have about the merger.
3) Elon's comment about Solar Roof costing the same as a non Solar Roof is huge.
4) Did Elon say Model 3 production would begin in about 3 months?
5) Even if Trump increases subsidies for Coal and new oil exploration, and eliminates subsidies for Solar, (a very unlikely scenario that would be extremely idiotic and probably illegal), demand for the Model 3, and SolarCity roofs won't be effected.
5a) If Trump cut incentives for EVs and Solar and increased incentives for oil, coal, etc. he would be killing all automobile manufacturers except for Tesla.
6) Elon's comment about the supply chain for roofs being extremely inefficient is very interesting and almost guarantees SolarCity roofs will cost a lot less than anyone thinks.
Looking at the trading chart, shorties are not having much success holding their dip. It's starting to erode now with buying pressure. If it turns green and there's a nice spike the the upside you could have a situation similar to yesterday with a fairly dramatic transition from morning red to afternoon green. We'll see.
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