THIS x100. The desire to come up with a narrative each day, dominated by suggestions that shorts are "coordinating" their "attacks" is infuriating and is really clogging up this thread.
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THIS x100. The desire to come up with a narrative each day, dominated by suggestions that shorts are "coordinating" their "attacks" is infuriating and is really clogging up this thread.
CALGARYARSENAL
Member
I have said it once and I will say it again, Papa and Vrshn are wonderful contributors, much more so than I will ever hope to be. That being said, I do feel people scope this thread and trade accordingly. I don't mind talking about shorts from here to eternity, but I am confident (just like my Friday call about CHK - up 7% today) that the moment we stop focusing on short selling is the day the stock turns around and heads higher. Short sellers must love this thread. In a perfect world I would be a magic moderator that banned short selling statistics and talk for a month. Tesla is a big pile of dog doo technically and people hate Elon. That's why there is selling. While we watch Tesla head down for the next few days, why don't we have a vote on this? No short selling talk for a month. A dream!
dennis
Model S Plaid
Did you forget about the huge Solar City/Tesla joint project for solar and storage in Kauai or are you just conveniently ignoring it? And also ignoring Elon's repeated statements that a big reason for the merger was to not have to jump through so many legal and procedural loops because the companies were separate on future projects like that. And ignoring his statements that Tesla is expecting many more such projects.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
As much as I do think there's merit to Papafox's and other's observations about deliberately timed short selling and how that can sometimes move the stock in meaningful ways, I do agree that for the most part what we're seeing on days like today, or in the last weeks or even months for that matter is mostly de-risking taking place in a gradual fashion.
But everyone does love a good story, or as was said down thread: a good narrative. Sometimes it does get slightly too Dan Brownish though.
Renowned TSLA short seller Mark Spiegl reached for his 128 Gb Apple iPhone 7. A glimmer of anticipation glimmered out through the pupils of both his green eyes, like twinkling faraway stars on a starry night. His decisive thumb, the finger in direct proximity to his index finger, reached out leisurely yet decisively across the 4.7 inch LED backlit capacitive retina display. He was going to post a tweet on Twitter, bashing Elon Musk and Tesla. "Brand new $TSLA autopilot accident- soon it'll drive cross country but right now even 20mph appears to be a problem" his thumb typed in to the iPhone, moving decisively yet leisurely across the keyboard containing all the letters of the alphabet.
"That was a very well composed Twitter tweet" he thought to himself, delighted with the Twitter tweet he had just sent by clicking on the "Send" button with his thumb. One of his two hands reached for the lower part of his upper lip and started fiddling the would be mustache that would have been there, had he had a mustache. "A most excellent tweet indeed" he said to himself without actually saying anything, as he was talking to himself in his own mind, without using his voice. "Surely this will set fear in the hearts of all TSLA investors".
As the esteemed fund manager sat down on his luxurious soft couch, the soft pillows softly preventing his body falling toward the floor, he thought to himself, his thoughts projecting ideas from within inside of his mind: "My tweet is going to scare TSLA investors to a great extent". He was looking forward to the day when Tesla would go bancrupt, much in the same way someone who is anticipating something good does. He pondred the events that might come to take place between now and then, and even though the events hadn't yet taken place he was able to ponder them inside his mind, using only his thoughts and his mind as the tool to do it. "I'm going to be right in the end, and all my current losses will be recouperated many times over" his thoughts thought.
(I apologize for any uncessary, repetitive or superflous tautologies in the above short story, I was in no way mocking famous novelist Dan Brown).
Regret that I have but one "love" to bestow.
That is some brilliant dan browning. Is that original or the output of some awesome Brownerizer aglo?
The only quibble is you need a nonsensical metaphor or 2: "...delighted with the twitter tweet he had just sent by clicking the "Send" button with his thumb, like the mighty buffalo rampaging across the grasslands."
I think part of the reason for Tesla's decline today is that solar stocks, across the board, were being hammered. CSIQ was down 8.7%! TSLA is now a solar stock...
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
If you want to call my brain an awesome Browneriser algo then by all means, thanks! I also do like your metaphor a lot, it really lifts the sentence to new heights, much in the same way that a great white shark forcefully claps his jaws down as he bites in to an adult seal.
(Sorry Audobon, this will be that last off topic post of the day from me)
So I generally tried to stay away from politics here for a number of good reasons, but after seeing some discussion here which, I think, miss the point, I will say this much: I now think the impact of Trump winning on Tesla will be minimal if measurable at all. Let me explain why.
If this happened a few years ago, we could be in really deep sugar, but by now Teslas are bought based on merit and not just because of any tax rebates. Tesla vehicles are widely perceived as at or near the top of their class, great value for money and won many accolades. People chose them over an Audi, BMW or Mercedes regardless of incentives.
As for Tesla Energy, with the new battery cells from Nevada GF1 and the new PV cells from Buffalo GF 1, residential and industrial scale power generation/storage systems from Tesla are on the verge of becoming very competitive if not clearly superior to fossil solutions on their own right. Having heard more and more from Elon and Tesla, I am now convinced we are seconds before liftoff (relatively speaking).
So where does that leave us? Are there still any doomsday scenarios?
Well notice I said Trump winning up above... a Trump presidency (as in 4 years of governing) is still somewhat more risky than the alternative would have been, but I am less concerned about at least one of the main threats I saw a few weeks ago now:
1, So far it seems Trump will not directly "sanction" green energy or EVs with extra taxes due to whatever made-up reason. Now this can still change in the future and there may be unfavorable laws coming up on e.g. a state level with nothing stopping fossil industry lobbyists from getting their agendas through, but it looks like Trump is choosing his battles and an all out war on alternatives is not high on his agenda.
2, If he messes up the global economy real bad or goes into trade/cold/actual war with former allies or dangerous foes (khm... Russia, China) that would have an overall negative effect on global economy which would surely inhibit Tesla's growth and the stock market as well. But that's too early to tell.
So I am not going as far as being optimistic, but I am a little less worried (from the TSLA perspective!) than I was before.
If this happened a few years ago, we could be in really deep sugar, but by now Teslas are bought based on merit and not just because of any tax rebates. Tesla vehicles are widely perceived as at or near the top of their class, great value for money and won many accolades. People chose them over an Audi, BMW or Mercedes regardless of incentives.
As for Tesla Energy, with the new battery cells from Nevada GF1 and the new PV cells from Buffalo GF 1, residential and industrial scale power generation/storage systems from Tesla are on the verge of becoming very competitive if not clearly superior to fossil solutions on their own right. Having heard more and more from Elon and Tesla, I am now convinced we are seconds before liftoff (relatively speaking).
So where does that leave us? Are there still any doomsday scenarios?
Well notice I said Trump winning up above... a Trump presidency (as in 4 years of governing) is still somewhat more risky than the alternative would have been, but I am less concerned about at least one of the main threats I saw a few weeks ago now:
1, So far it seems Trump will not directly "sanction" green energy or EVs with extra taxes due to whatever made-up reason. Now this can still change in the future and there may be unfavorable laws coming up on e.g. a state level with nothing stopping fossil industry lobbyists from getting their agendas through, but it looks like Trump is choosing his battles and an all out war on alternatives is not high on his agenda.
2, If he messes up the global economy real bad or goes into trade/cold/actual war with former allies or dangerous foes (khm... Russia, China) that would have an overall negative effect on global economy which would surely inhibit Tesla's growth and the stock market as well. But that's too early to tell.
So I am not going as far as being optimistic, but I am a little less worried (from the TSLA perspective!) than I was before.
Surprise!
Yet another troll post about those mean ol' nasty evil shorts who just "pondred" ways to make companies "bancrupt" in order to "recouperated" losses many times over.
His thoughts thought?
Are you saying his thoughts are capable of thought?
He pondered things inside his mind? Is it possible to ponder things outside his mind? How does that even work?
You are watching way too many cartoons with evil Snidely Whiplash characters.
Come back to the real world - there are better things here than badly written trolling of shorts.
How long do you think this gradual derisking will go on? When do think we will see accumulation like the one we saw from mid Feb to early April?
Am I the only one who thinks it's funny that some people are annoyed by posts about shorts shorting in the short-term thread?
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
I'm pretty much with Dave (@dha) on that: I would suppose until Trump takes office and a more clear picture emerges of what type of people he will surround himself with, what people he will appoint in key places and eventuall what kind of policies he will work to put in to place (and if they seem like bad policies, what kind of resistance he will face). And I do think that this is one of those times where it's really important for TSLA investors to zoom out a bit and be more concerned with the macro environment and the stock market as a whole rather than TSLA specifically, which after all in many ways will behave like any other high beta stock in the short-medium term.
So, to answer the question, my guess is accumulation will start again when/if these dark clouds on the horizon blow over.
No
But I did recently tried to read one of his books, however I had to give up after a few chapters. When thinking about our inate love for good story, one that maybe sometimes is taken a step or two too far because it seems intriguing, I thought of his writing.
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In a long post this weekend, I suggested that short-sellers employ three primary tools: the mandatory morning dip, capping of TSLA to prevent it from exceeding a certain price, and weighting the short-selling heavily in the low-volume afternoon hours. Today we saw extensive use of two of these tools: capping methodology and weighted selling during the low-volume late afternoon hours. I also suggested that because of this being the second full trading day after the SCTY merger approval, the shorts were likely to throw plenty of resources towards decreasing the stock price and trying to sell the false narrative that TSLA longs were selling today because of fear of the merger.
Begin by examining the TSLA daily trading chart and the NASDAQ daily trading chart. All pertinent pieces of information should be taken into account when explaining a stock's behavior and macros are an essential piece of the puzzle.
What we saw today was a respectable rally during the first hour of trading (amateur hour). One explanation is that the rally was a reaction to new longs entering the stock shortly after opening (amateur hour) after watching the Tesla autopilot videos or become inspired to buy for any number of reasons over the weekend. The other explanation is that the NASDAQ rallied during this time period and then fell substantially. Evidence suggests that TSLA was influenced strongly by the NASDAQ's rise and fall during this time period.
A very interesting thing happened around 10:45am, though: TSLA transitioned into horizontal trading with lots of micro climbs and descents, and the NASDAQ kept right on climbing. Why did TSLA stop following the NASDAQ, as it had obviously been doing during the first hour of trading and start trading flat? I suppose you could suggest that longs were selling, but with the broader market heading higher, what sense does it make to stop the ascent of a stock you plan to sell? Wouldn't it make more sense for big longs to slow down or stop the selling and then resume after the stock price had climbed higher? On the other hand, it makes a great amount of sense for shorts to cap the stock price and try to contain the gains of TSLA during the day by selling whatever number of shares were necessary to hold a price level.
We saw TSLA trading horizontally at about 187.50 and then readjust lower. It traded for most of the day very near to 187 even while the NASDAQ continued its upward trajectory. Doesn't this relationship between TSLA and the NASDAQ look odd to you?
At about 2:30pm, TSLA took a dip but recovered. My explanation? Long buyers of TSLA were still willing to buy at 187 and bid the SP back up after shorts tried to pull it down. By studying short strategies, you learn that shorts sometimes need multiple selling attempts to pull a stock price down. By 3:00 pm the shorts had increased the volume of selling high enough to start making progress. Look at the volume indicators during the time of afternoon when the SP started to fall, and you can see several large transactions within a minute. They were in the 10,000-15,000 share sizes within a minute's duration, which is plenty enough to normally move the SP. By about 3:45 pm the NASDAQ felt a second wind and was heading upward at a brisk pace, but TSLA was at that time heading downward at a brisk pace. If the downward motion of TSLA was caused by news, what was that news? TSLA certainly didn't start downward in the afternoon because of pressure from the macros, quite the opposite.
One member pointed out that nearly 200,000 short shares were drawn down from Fidelity alone this morning. I frequently see a definite correlation between the amount of short shares taken out in a morning and negative pressure on the SP of TSLA during the day. I think it would be naive to believe that no correlation between shares sold short and negative trading of TSLA exists, especially on days when the MAJORITY of trading in TSLA is conducted by short-sellers. I'm currently waiting for today's data on short selling to be released by www.shortanalytics.com . I'll post the results later today so that we have an additional data point, but I wouldn't be surprised to see 2/3rds of today's trading involving short-sellers. On such a day, it is truly ridiculous to insist the decline in SP came about primarily because longs didn't like the SCTY merger and were lightening their positions. Where is your evidence of this? @ggr has pointed out that solar stocks were down today. Fair enough, that is a reasonable explanation for part of the decline. Nobody claims that one cause is responsible for the entire day's trading activity. What I desire to do is to make an argument for why short-selling affected the day's trading and you get to consider it along with all the other explanations.
What's the value of understanding the volume of short selling, the availability of shares to short, the techniques used by short sellers, and the likely short term goals of short-sellers? It helps us understand when TSLA may be ready to break out of this horizontal trading and head higher. It should be one of the factors you consider with your trading. Feel free to skip posts involving short-selling if you believe that short-selling is benign and has little effect upon the stock price, but please don't ask that other traders be deprived of this point of view. Some are finding value in it.
Begin by examining the TSLA daily trading chart and the NASDAQ daily trading chart. All pertinent pieces of information should be taken into account when explaining a stock's behavior and macros are an essential piece of the puzzle.
What we saw today was a respectable rally during the first hour of trading (amateur hour). One explanation is that the rally was a reaction to new longs entering the stock shortly after opening (amateur hour) after watching the Tesla autopilot videos or become inspired to buy for any number of reasons over the weekend. The other explanation is that the NASDAQ rallied during this time period and then fell substantially. Evidence suggests that TSLA was influenced strongly by the NASDAQ's rise and fall during this time period.
A very interesting thing happened around 10:45am, though: TSLA transitioned into horizontal trading with lots of micro climbs and descents, and the NASDAQ kept right on climbing. Why did TSLA stop following the NASDAQ, as it had obviously been doing during the first hour of trading and start trading flat? I suppose you could suggest that longs were selling, but with the broader market heading higher, what sense does it make to stop the ascent of a stock you plan to sell? Wouldn't it make more sense for big longs to slow down or stop the selling and then resume after the stock price had climbed higher? On the other hand, it makes a great amount of sense for shorts to cap the stock price and try to contain the gains of TSLA during the day by selling whatever number of shares were necessary to hold a price level.
We saw TSLA trading horizontally at about 187.50 and then readjust lower. It traded for most of the day very near to 187 even while the NASDAQ continued its upward trajectory. Doesn't this relationship between TSLA and the NASDAQ look odd to you?
At about 2:30pm, TSLA took a dip but recovered. My explanation? Long buyers of TSLA were still willing to buy at 187 and bid the SP back up after shorts tried to pull it down. By studying short strategies, you learn that shorts sometimes need multiple selling attempts to pull a stock price down. By 3:00 pm the shorts had increased the volume of selling high enough to start making progress. Look at the volume indicators during the time of afternoon when the SP started to fall, and you can see several large transactions within a minute. They were in the 10,000-15,000 share sizes within a minute's duration, which is plenty enough to normally move the SP. By about 3:45 pm the NASDAQ felt a second wind and was heading upward at a brisk pace, but TSLA was at that time heading downward at a brisk pace. If the downward motion of TSLA was caused by news, what was that news? TSLA certainly didn't start downward in the afternoon because of pressure from the macros, quite the opposite.
One member pointed out that nearly 200,000 short shares were drawn down from Fidelity alone this morning. I frequently see a definite correlation between the amount of short shares taken out in a morning and negative pressure on the SP of TSLA during the day. I think it would be naive to believe that no correlation between shares sold short and negative trading of TSLA exists, especially on days when the MAJORITY of trading in TSLA is conducted by short-sellers. I'm currently waiting for today's data on short selling to be released by www.shortanalytics.com . I'll post the results later today so that we have an additional data point, but I wouldn't be surprised to see 2/3rds of today's trading involving short-sellers. On such a day, it is truly ridiculous to insist the decline in SP came about primarily because longs didn't like the SCTY merger and were lightening their positions. Where is your evidence of this? @ggr has pointed out that solar stocks were down today. Fair enough, that is a reasonable explanation for part of the decline. Nobody claims that one cause is responsible for the entire day's trading activity. What I desire to do is to make an argument for why short-selling affected the day's trading and you get to consider it along with all the other explanations.
What's the value of understanding the volume of short selling, the availability of shares to short, the techniques used by short sellers, and the likely short term goals of short-sellers? It helps us understand when TSLA may be ready to break out of this horizontal trading and head higher. It should be one of the factors you consider with your trading. Feel free to skip posts involving short-selling if you believe that short-selling is benign and has little effect upon the stock price, but please don't ask that other traders be deprived of this point of view. Some are finding value in it.
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No
You could also take up writing for a living, fiction, or stock analysis. But then I repeat myself.
A sign of senility, doc?
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Great post, and I very much agree with your conclusion there. Of course the short term price movements of TSLA isn't just dictated by short selling, but then again it is one of the absolutely most highly shorted stocks in the market and has been for a very long time, so it would also be very strange to think that short activity didn't have very important implications for both the short term and the long term price dynamic of TSLA. (If it affects the price short term then of course it will affect the price long term).
I think you have presented some very compelling "evidence" in this post, and in some of your previous posts, to point out these implications of short selling. The problem is there can be a significant amount of confirmation bias, "tea leaf reading" if you will, if you go look at such a complex phenomenon as short term stock market price movements with a theory already in hand. Also, there are very few stocks with the similar type of short interest that TSLA has had, and has, in existence right now or historically to draw parallels to.
Only if you ignore the many illegal actions and rule violations it would be required to use to do so.
These firms are very highly regulated so most of the speculation about then that I see here is very far off the mark.
Don't mean to target your post surgically, just a good example of common incorrect things.
CyberDutchie
Active Member
I just cannot believe the poor performance of Tesla stock since the last earnings surprise.
Very frustrated for us longs. I mean, there is nothing there not to like about this company. They pull one miracle of technology after the other. Market at all time highs and TSLA is down, sigh.
I used to follow this board pretty closely, but lately I haven't. What is the point if the stock just doesn't want to move up. And I'm not interested in selling (tax reasons) or shorting (options trading proved too costly for me) so that type of advice is wasted on me. Sitting on a significant number of call contracts that expire come January '17 with no glimmer of hope to even hit the strike price on those. Lots of money down the drain, again!
Anyone else feeling the frustration?
Sorry, I dont have anything positive to contribute here...
Very frustrated for us longs. I mean, there is nothing there not to like about this company. They pull one miracle of technology after the other. Market at all time highs and TSLA is down, sigh.
I used to follow this board pretty closely, but lately I haven't. What is the point if the stock just doesn't want to move up. And I'm not interested in selling (tax reasons) or shorting (options trading proved too costly for me) so that type of advice is wasted on me. Sitting on a significant number of call contracts that expire come January '17 with no glimmer of hope to even hit the strike price on those. Lots of money down the drain, again!
Anyone else feeling the frustration?
Sorry, I dont have anything positive to contribute here...
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Yep. Far worse performance than I expected given last ER and all the recent developments and de-risking we've seen.
I'm still upset with SCTY acquisition annoucement. Really caused a big haircut.
Next year would've been easier timing (post model 3 launch).
I'm certain Elon didn't expect TSLA to trade so poorly
I remain long term bullish, but I don't see any near-term catalysts till Q4 delivery numbers in early Jan. And, delivery numbers may or may not exceed expectations
Sorry. Just as bummed as you are with TSLA. I'm thrilled with Tesla company milestones (minus SolarCity acq timing)
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