Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[donauker]

Yes! That is perfect. It looks like the new battery pack still cools the cells from the side. Instead of transferring heat to coolant running through a tube on the sides of each cell, however, the heat is transferred to aluminum fins in contact with the sides of the cells. The fins then transfer the heat to the base plate. The coolant now cools the base plate instead of the individual cells.

So vgrinshpun and AudubonB were both right. Heat is now transferred to the base plate in the new battery packs, but not through the floor of the individual cells. Heat goes: cell wall -> aluminum fin -> base plate -> coolant.

Great find Off Shore!

Since this is only a concept (by someone not associated with Tesla) on how it might be done, it is merely speculation.

 

[Gerardf]

Just as a minor data point, we ordered two fully loaded P100D this week So where's this nice excel sheet that one is supposed to keep updated?

Wow, congrats.
I assume you are looking for this one. It has a tab for 2016 oct, nov, dec.
Model S Order & Delivery 2016

 

[cziegler]

Check your hole card. (Your cumulative count is about 20% too high-- 162K reported @ 9/30/16) Many of those buyers were serial purchasers; Tesla is eating their trade-ins, while the market value of those cars continues to plummet. Tesla has 100 plus CPOs that it has held for 10+ months; know anyone else that does that? I submit most of the CPO inventory goes to auction before year-end before the auditors write an exception.

I sure wish there was a "Dispute Stated Talkingpoints" button as opposed as just 'Dislike'ing a comment as disliking is vague.

I traded in my Perf Signature VIN S00285 last December when I purchased a S 90D. Before trading the old S into TM, I priced the trade-in value at CarMax and private parties, both options offered more money for my old S than TM - Carmax offered $500 more than TM, I then chatted shortly with the Carmax rep about other brands luxury performance sedans and our S was fetching considerably more than an comparable AMG, I can't recall the exact number but it was ~ 15 grandish.

Additionally, as I've mentioned before, I monitor the activity at Tesla facilities, I count cars in both delivery ques and service bays, both are consistent with TM corporate statements to investors; e.g. 'the reliability if increasing and demand is strong'. For example, my Roadster needs the TPMS senors replaced as the batteries are dead, while service was able to service the car in a timely manner (2 days) a loaner X was not available in any time frame, and if I wanted a loaner S, I would have to wait and week and a half.

 

[Fallenone]

A few folks here maintain solid by-country data here:

Tesla Europe Registration Stats

Second largest country can mean as low as 5% of sales.

We always got misleading info like this, especially from Tesla. Remember that TE rate will be faster than TA? Well of course it will be faster starting off from a base of 0. I'm in general fed up with Tesla's bs info releases like this. I would much rather have some real numbers and real info as to whats going on and what their plans are.

Totally agree with this. 2nd largest may be a few k a year.

 

[Fallenone]

Is there a possibility that comparison was not with an European Country, but with the Europe as a whole? Here is snapshot from the European Stats page which shows that deliveries to Asia/Pacific doubling in Q3 over Q2. It is fare to assume that most of the growth is in China as sales elsewhere in Asia/Pacific, as I understand it were doing well. If there is doubling of Asian Pacific deliveries in this quarter again, and the growth over Q3 and Q4 is attributed to China, deliveries there could easily overwhelm deliveries to whole Europe:

View attachment 204999

Let's not get carried away shall we? If they really did achieve that, they would say that. Tesla is just like any other companies, PRing the best possible spin they can while trying not to give false info.

 

[Fallenone]

I could be wrong, but I after living in China for many years I was always under the impression that wealth was often distributed more in 2nd and 3rd tier cities more than the major cities. Chinese suburbs so to speak. Also, China introduced regulations limiting the number of new drivers licenses in major cities to limit traffic. To get around this wealthy people would go to villages and pay under the table to local officials to get their licenses issued from those towns. I personally witnessed this once with my boss who used to take me around as his token white friend to meet people where his rich friends daughter got a license by paying a local mayor for it while we all smoke cigarettes and tea in his office.

It was bizarre, but far from the most bizarre thing I witnessed along these lines. Playing Majong at a village mayors fish farm with "collections" guys from Macau is up on that list.

Ultimately my point being, I don't think that major cities are necessarily going to be where the bulk of +100,000 USD cars are registered in China. I could be wrong though.

As a Chinese I can tell you this impression is wrong. Wealth is highly concentrated in major cities and people don't do the suburban thing to get licence.

 

[erthquake]

Since this is only a concept (by someone not associated with Tesla) on how it might be done, it is merely speculation.

Correct. Looks like glanced over the source too quickly. My bad. The concept seems pretty logical though.

 

[Papafox]

For reference sake, please note that 98,000+ shares of TSLA were sold in the first minute of trading today. You are welcome to use your own imaginations regarding who the seller(s) would be.

 

[erthquake]

For reference sake, please note that 98,000+ shares of TSLA were sold in the first minute of trading today. You are welcome to use your own imaginations regarding who the seller(s) would be.

Since I'm still learning, would you mind offering your opinion?

 

[Green Pete]

As a Chinese I can tell you this impression is wrong. Wealth is highly concentrated in major cities and people don't do the suburban thing to get licence.

I did actually witness it first hand. Also knew second hand about it happening fairly frequently. So it does happen.

Also, Shenzhen is the only major city to top the list of highest GDP per capita top ten cities on this list.

List of prefecture-level cities by GDP per capita - Wikipedia

Living in 顺德，佛山 I saw WAAAAY more luxury cars than I did in Guangzhou, Shenzhen or Shanghai. Like, if you take out the taxis, luxury cars outnumbered non luxury cars. Can't speak to Beijing Chengdu or Chongqing, but I imagine a similar situation.

Also saw the same phenomenon in Zhuhai

 

[Chop110]

PapaFox: I appreciate you consistently throwing thread relevant comments in the middle of all this*.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Let's not get carried away shall we? If they really did achieve that, they would say that. Tesla is just like any other companies, PRing the best possible spin they can while trying not to give false info.

Well, it was an honest question, as I believe in China Tesla delivers more cars than any single European country for quite some time, and it should not be any news. So I do not appreciate the lecture.

The highest country in Europe - UK has about 2,161 registrations so far this year, while Asia/Pasific has estimated 8,688 deliveries (see snap shot of the table in my post above) and is growing very fast (doubled in Q3). I would guess that Chinese deliveries are significantly more than half of 8,688, no? So stating that China is second largest market, if the reference is for a country, is really not any news worthy, it probably been like that for a while. From the same table Asia/Pacific is about to exceed Europe in Tesla deliveries. So my question is reasonable, but obviously did not mean to be a statement - it is the question - I, after all do not see what you've seen to report.

 

[Papafox]

Since I'm still learning, would you mind offering your opinion?

With short sellers drawing down 112,000 shares at Fidelity before opening, and with other available sources of shares for shorts to sell today, the majority of these shares are likely sold by shorts, IMO. If you are a long and wished to dispose of 90,000+ shares today, selling them all in the first minute is likely not to be the best tactic. Selling smaller blocks over time would likely yield a better average selling price, unless you are racing some bad news which you just learned of.

For comparison sake, this level of activity is several times higher than what we normally see. It's the reason why the volume indicators of TSLA at the nasdaq site are so miniaturized today. If the shorts are indeed drawing down half a million to a million shares of TSLA every week and we keep trading normally in the 180-198 range, the shorts are expending huge resources just to keep the trading below 200. At some point they will either cause interest rates for TSLA borrowing to rise or they will start running low on funds to keep throwing at TSLA.

 

[Fallenone]

I did actually witness it first hand. Also knew second hand about it happening fairly frequently. So it does happen.

Also, Shenzhen is the only major city to top the list of highest GDP per capita top ten cities on this list.

List of prefecture-level cities by GDP per capita - Wikipedia

Living in 顺德，佛山 I saw WAAAAY more luxury cars than I did in Guangzhou, Shenzhen or Shanghai. Like, if you take out the taxis, luxury cars outnumbered non luxury cars. Can't speak to Beijing Chengdu or Chongqing, but I imagine a similar situation.

Yes the thing you describe does happen (a high school friend of mine has been trying to get a Beijing licence plate via the official lottery system for 10 years and still hasn't gotten one) but you would face many limitations driving in Beijing/Shanghai with a licence plate from other provinces. A big appeal of Tesla is owners in Beijing is owners don't have to wait multiple years for the licence plate.

GDP per capita is not a good way to measure wealth concentration by the way. Except for Shenzhen, Wuxi, and Suzhou, the other cities are small cities (in a Chinese way, still quite big if in other countries) and main economy is resource extraction. And the wealth is highly concentrated in the few dozen people who own the resources. My hometown is in a similar situation. Thanks to the discovery of an oil field, some people got filthy rich and the city is importing the largest amount of luxury cars in the province. But there is a great discrepancy between those top management people/government officers and the vast majority. A better way to look at wealth or purchasing power would be the housing prices in China.

All I am saying, is those suburban/rural area of China may have a population of 500k and 500 of them can afford several P100DL but the rest are thrilled to have a Honda Accord. While in main cities you have a population of 5 m and 100k of them can afford a 60 or higher.

 

[Fallenone]

Well, it was an honest question, as I believe in China Tesla delivers more cars than any single European country for quite some time, and it should not be any news. So I do not appreciate the lecture.

The highest country in Europe - UK has about 2,161 registrations so far this year, while Asia/Pasific has estimated 8,688 deliveries (see snap shot of the table in my post above) and is growing very fast (doubled in Q3). I would guess that Chinese deliveries are significantly more than half of 8,688, no? So stating that China is second largest market, if the reference is for a country, is really not any news worthy, it probably been like that for a while. From the same table Asia/Pacific is about to exceed Europe in Tesla deliveries. So my question is reasonable, but obviously did not mean to be a statement - it is the question - I, after all do not see what you've seen to report.

The context of that information is not a press release, it was an overview of how Tesla China have been doing in the past 3 years. So it doesn't need to be news worthy to begin with.

 

[vgrinshpun]

The context of that information is not a press release, it was an overview of how Tesla China have been doing in the past 3 years. So it doesn't need to be news worthy to begin with.

But *you* were the one who presented this as something new. "One interesting information is that it says China has become second largest market for Tesla and one of the fastest growing markets as well". My question was prompted exactly by the way you presented it, as China most likely *was* second country in deliveries for quite some time. So once again, I am a little surprised by your condescending tone.

 

[Green Pete]

Yes the thing you describe does happen (a high school friend of mine has been trying to get a Beijing licence plate via the official lottery system for 10 years and still hasn't gotten one) but you would face many limitations driving in Beijing/Shanghai with a licence plate from other provinces. A big appeal of Tesla is owners in Beijing is owners don't have to wait multiple years for the licence plate.

GDP per capita is not a good way to measure wealth concentration by the way. Except for Shenzhen, Wuxi, and Suzhou, the other cities are small cities (in a Chinese way, still quite big if in other countries) and main economy is resource extraction. And the wealth is highly concentrated in the few dozen people who own the resources. My hometown is in a similar situation. Thanks to the discovery of an oil field, some people got filthy rich and the city is importing the largest amount of luxury cars in the province. But there is a great discrepancy between those top management people/government officers and the vast majority. A better way to look at wealth or purchasing power would be the housing prices in China.

All I am saying, is those suburban/rural area of China may have a population of 500k and 500 of them can afford several P100DL but the rest are thrilled to have a Honda Accord. While in main cities you have a population of 5 m and 100k of them can afford a 60 or higher.

Wuxi, Suzhou, Dalian, Foshan, and Zhuhai all listed above Shanghai Beijing and Tianjin are manufacturing cities. Hangzhou comes just after. Having lived in Foshan Hangzhou and Shanghai still feel my statement holds some water. Most of those cities are complete unknowns to people here.

I WILL say, the lack of need to wait for a license if you buy an EV is VERY interesting piece of news. While we can agree to disagree on the rest, that one tidbit was more than fascinating. I imagine China demand for the M3 would be much higher than I previously anticipated now knowing that.

 

[Fallenone]

But *you* were the one who presented this as something new. "One interesting information is that it says China has become second largest market for Tesla and one of the fastest growing markets as well". My question was prompted exactly by the way you presented it, as China most likely *was* second country in deliveries for quite some time. So once again, I am a little surprised by your condescending tone.

I'm not sure about that "quite some time". Elon said China was 2nd largest in 2014 but it turned out to be an optimistic look thanks to some scalpers and Tesla's "failure" in China was made a big story for some time. With this information from Tesla China, I believe they have reached a steady 2nd place. And also please don't misquote by leaving out "one of the", so it's not a given it is the fastest.

 

[Fallenone]

Wuxi, Suzhou, Dalian, Foshan, and Zhuhai all listed above Shanghai Beijing and Tianjin are manufacturing cities. Hangzhou comes just after. Having lived in Foshan Hangzhou and Shanghai still feel my statement holds some water. Most of those cities are complete unknowns to people here.

I WILL say, the lack of need to wait for a license if you buy an EV is VERY interesting piece of news. While we can agree to disagree on the rest, that one tidbit was more than fascinating. I imagine China demand for the M3 would be much higher than I previously anticipated now knowing that.

That perk is only available for Beijing as other cities don't have that lottery system. Also, alternative energy vehicles have their own lottery system as well. It's just the quota is not reaching as fast as the ICE quota so you don't need to wait. However, as more and more people are buying these vehicles, there could be a wait time as well (still far less than ICE I think).

 

[vgrinshpun]

I'm not sure about that "quite some time". Elon said China was 2nd largest in 2014 but it turned out to be an optimistic look thanks to some scalpers and Tesla's "failure" in China was made a big story for some time. With this information from Tesla China, I believe they have reached a steady 2nd place. And also please don't misquote by leaving out "one of the", so it's not a given it is the fastest.

I would say for about a year now. What percentage of total Asia/Pacific deliveries do you think are going to China?