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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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Hi folks has the revenue recognition GAAP changes for 2016-17 been discussed on here? I searched for it and didn't see much. Per the q3 10q they hadn't declared when they would begin using the changes (my understanding is they can start anytime between Dec 15 2016 and 2017). Here the text from the 10Q:

"In May 2014, the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) issued an Accounting Standards Update (ASU) No. 2014-09, Revenue from Contracts with Customers (Topic 606) , which amends the existing accounting standards for revenue recognition. The new guidance provides a new model to determine when and over what period revenue is recognized. Under this new model, revenue is recognized as goods or services are delivered in an amount that reflects the consideration we expect to collect. In March 2016, the FASB issued an ASU, Revenue from Contracts with Customers: Principal versus Agent Considerations (Reporting Revenue Gross versus Net) , which clarifies the principal versus agent guidance in the new revenue recognition standard. In April 2016, the FASB issued an ASU, Revenue from Contracts with Customers: Identifying Performance Obligations and Licensing , which clarifies the guidance on accounting for licenses of intellectual property and identifying performance obligations in the new revenue recognition standard. In May 2016, the FASB issued an ASU, Revenue from Contracts with Customers: Narrow-Scope Improvements and Practical Expedient , which clarifies the transition, collectability, noncash consideration and the presentation of sales and other similar taxes in the new revenue recognition standard. The guidance is effective for fiscal years beginning after December 15, 2017; early adoption is permitted for periods beginning after December 15, 2016. The new standard is required to be applied retrospectively to each prior reporting period presented or retrospectively with the cumulative effect of initially applying it recognized at the date of initial application. We have not yet selected a transition method and are evaluating the impact of adopting this guidance."
 
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It was 3 years ago Tesla entered China. Today Tesla China's official social media gave a review of what was accomplished in China in three years. One interesting information is that it says China has become second largest market for Tesla and one of the fastest growing markets as well. Since Norway is more or less saturated, it is not surprising China has become 2nd. But if anyone has any detailed info on the largest European country, then it would be safe to say China has more sales than that one.
 
It was 3 years ago Tesla entered China. Today Tesla China's official social media gave a review of what was accomplished in China in three years. One interesting information is that it says China has become second largest market for Tesla and one of the fastest growing markets as well. Since Norway is more or less saturated, it is not surprising China has become 2nd. But if anyone has any detailed info on the largest European country, then it would be safe to say China has more sales than that one.
That's huge news, thanks for sharing. Fastest growing + largest non-US market is a good combination given the huge potential pool of buyers. It's notoriously hard to get good data from how Tesla is faring in China so little tidbits like this are much appreciated.
 
And another single data point so take it however you will. For the first week of Dec in five major cities in China there were 148 Tesla out of 228 BEVs registered for an experimental new licence plate specifically for alternative energy vehicles (including BEV and PHEV and others). Although I think these 5 major cities would capture most of the sales in China, I don't know if every single Tesla had to register for this new licence plate. There could be more that did not opt for this.
 
Hi folks has the revenue recognition GAAP changes for 2016-17 been discussed on here? I searched for it and didn't see much. Per the q3 10q they hadn't declared when they would begin using the changes (my understanding is they can start anytime between Dec 15 2016 and 2017). Here the text from the 10Q:

"In May 2014, the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) issued an Accounting Standards Update (ASU) No. 2014-09, Revenue from Contracts with Customers (Topic 606) , which amends the existing accounting standards for revenue recognition. The new guidance provides a new model to determine when and over what period revenue is recognized. Under this new model, revenue is recognized as goods or services are delivered in an amount that reflects the consideration we expect to collect. In March 2016, the FASB issued an ASU, Revenue from Contracts with Customers: Principal versus Agent Considerations (Reporting Revenue Gross versus Net) , which clarifies the principal versus agent guidance in the new revenue recognition standard. In April 2016, the FASB issued an ASU, Revenue from Contracts with Customers: Identifying Performance Obligations and Licensing , which clarifies the guidance on accounting for licenses of intellectual property and identifying performance obligations in the new revenue recognition standard. In May 2016, the FASB issued an ASU, Revenue from Contracts with Customers: Narrow-Scope Improvements and Practical Expedient , which clarifies the transition, collectability, noncash consideration and the presentation of sales and other similar taxes in the new revenue recognition standard. The guidance is effective for fiscal years beginning after December 15, 2017; early adoption is permitted for periods beginning after December 15, 2016. The new standard is required to be applied retrospectively to each prior reporting period presented or retrospectively with the cumulative effect of initially applying it recognized at the date of initial application. We have not yet selected a transition method and are evaluating the impact of adopting this guidance."

I know very little about accounting. But my gut (which means little I realize) makes me feel like this alone stands to impact Tesla SP in the short term more than anything. I would be very curious what more knowledgeable people have to say.

Edit: I have to admit, I find it a little odd that accounting changes can have such a large impact without any of the fundamentals changing. One would wish that analysts would understand the company better regardless of the numbers but in the end I guess EPS ends up being the ultimate metric that affects public opinions of a company, rather than innovation.
 
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Yahoo finance news feed doesn't mention the Fremont factory expansion approval yet. Interesting that there are instantly ten articles on a limited recall of $5 adapters, but crickets on real news like the factory. I expect the slide this morning to reverse once that news goes mainstream....

Yep. I'm so sick of the rapid fire copying of negative news.

It happens in Ameritrade account too... awful.

Marketwatch ( Rupert Murdoch ) is gawd awful too
 
Hi folks has the revenue recognition GAAP changes for 2016-17 been discussed on here? I searched for it and didn't see much. Per the q3 10q they hadn't declared when they would begin using the changes (my understanding is they can start anytime between Dec 15 2016 and 2017). Here the text from the 10Q:

"In May 2014, the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) issued an Accounting Standards Update (ASU) No. 2014-09, Revenue from Contracts with Customers (Topic 606) , which amends the existing accounting standards for revenue recognition. The new guidance provides a new model to determine when and over what period revenue is recognized. Under this new model, revenue is recognized as goods or services are delivered in an amount that reflects the consideration we expect to collect. In March 2016, the FASB issued an ASU, Revenue from Contracts with Customers: Principal versus Agent Considerations (Reporting Revenue Gross versus Net) , which clarifies the principal versus agent guidance in the new revenue recognition standard. In April 2016, the FASB issued an ASU, Revenue from Contracts with Customers: Identifying Performance Obligations and Licensing , which clarifies the guidance on accounting for licenses of intellectual property and identifying performance obligations in the new revenue recognition standard. In May 2016, the FASB issued an ASU, Revenue from Contracts with Customers: Narrow-Scope Improvements and Practical Expedient , which clarifies the transition, collectability, noncash consideration and the presentation of sales and other similar taxes in the new revenue recognition standard. The guidance is effective for fiscal years beginning after December 15, 2017; early adoption is permitted for periods beginning after December 15, 2016. The new standard is required to be applied retrospectively to each prior reporting period presented or retrospectively with the cumulative effect of initially applying it recognized at the date of initial application. We have not yet selected a transition method and are evaluating the impact of adopting this guidance."

This is expected to change accounting for various types of financed "we deliver now, you pay later" stuff, I believe. (Not sure whether it applies to all leasing, but I think so.) It'll probably make SolarCity books a hell of a lot more comprehensible. I haven't looked into it in detail but I get the gist.

Dunno when Tesla will adopt it but it'll probably make it a lot clearer what the real value of the leases is. This type of accounting *is* subject to management assumptions about *creditworthiness and interest rates*, mind you, so that's something to be watchful for.

Related article: #TSLA (Tesla Motors Inc.) Short Sellers: Mind the GAAP
 
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It was 3 years ago Tesla entered China. Today Tesla China's official social media gave a review of what was accomplished in China in three years. One interesting information is that it says China has become second largest market for Tesla and one of the fastest growing markets as well. Since Norway is more or less saturated, it is not surprising China has become 2nd. But if anyone has any detailed info on the largest European country, then it would be safe to say China has more sales than that one.

A few folks here maintain solid by-country data here:

Tesla Europe Registration Stats

Second largest country can mean as low as 5% of sales.

We always got misleading info like this, especially from Tesla. Remember that TE rate will be faster than TA? Well of course it will be faster starting off from a base of 0. I'm in general fed up with Tesla's bs info releases like this. I would much rather have some real numbers and real info as to whats going on and what their plans are.
 
It was 3 years ago Tesla entered China. Today Tesla China's official social media gave a review of what was accomplished in China in three years. One interesting information is that it says China has become second largest market for Tesla and one of the fastest growing markets as well. Since Norway is more or less saturated, it is not surprising China has become 2nd. But if anyone has any detailed info on the largest European country, then it would be safe to say China has more sales than that one.

Is there a possibility that comparison was not with an European Country, but with the Europe as a whole? Here is snapshot from the European Stats page which shows that deliveries to Asia/Pacific doubling in Q3 over Q2. It is fare to assume that most of the growth is in China as sales elsewhere in Asia/Pacific, as I understand it were doing well. If there is doubling of Asian Pacific deliveries in this quarter again, and the growth over Q3 and Q4 is attributed to China, deliveries there could easily overwhelm deliveries to whole Europe:

Snap1.png
 
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Overcoming my usual resistance to commenting on subjects about which I know nothing, is this Teslarati article relevant?
What makes the Tesla 100 kWh battery so different?

Yes! That is perfect. It looks like the new battery pack still cools the cells from the side. Instead of transferring heat to coolant running through a tube on the sides of each cell, however, the heat is transferred to aluminum fins in contact with the sides of the cells. The fins then transfer the heat to the base plate. The coolant now cools the base plate instead of the individual cells.

So vgrinshpun and AudubonB were both right. Heat is now transferred to the base plate in the new battery packs, but not through the floor of the individual cells. Heat goes: cell wall -> aluminum fin -> base plate -> coolant.

Great find Off Shore!
 
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This is expected to change lease accounting, I believe. Probably make SolarCity books a hell of a lot more comprehensible. I haven't looked into it in detail but I get the gist.

Dunno when Tesla will adopt it but it'll probably make it a lot clearer what the real value of the leases is. This type of accouning *is* subject to management assumptions about *creditworthiness and interest rates*, mind you, so that's something to be watchful for.

And PPA agreements, which used to make up (still makes up?) the majority of their sales. My interpretation is that in addition to these changes reflecting in future reporting companies are supposed to also show how this would reflect on previous quarters. But I again have only fundamental understanding of this.
 
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This is expected to change accounting for various types of financed "we deliver now, you pay later" stuff, I believe. (Not sure whether it applies to all leasing.) It'll probably make SolarCity books a hell of a lot more comprehensible. I haven't looked into it in detail but I get the gist.

Dunno when Tesla will adopt it but it'll probably make it a lot clearer what the real value of the leases is. This type of accouning *is* subject to management assumptions about *creditworthiness and interest rates*, mind you, so that's something to be watchful for.
Yeah I've been trying to do some homework on it and for SolarCity especially it seems like it could be a big shift in how it is viewed if all or some of those long-term leases are recognized, seems like if they are good enough to securitize than it ought to be good enough for GAAP. Not sure if they have to announce ahead of time that they are making the changes or it will just show up on the books.
 
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And another single data point so take it however you will. For the first week of Dec in five major cities in China there were 148 Tesla out of 228 BEVs registered for an experimental new licence plate specifically for alternative energy vehicles (including BEV and PHEV and others). Although I think these 5 major cities would capture most of the sales in China, I don't know if every single Tesla had to register for this new licence plate. There could be more that did not opt for this.

I could be wrong, but I after living in China for many years I was always under the impression that wealth was often distributed more in 2nd and 3rd tier cities more than the major cities. Chinese suburbs so to speak. Also, China introduced regulations limiting the number of new drivers licenses in major cities to limit traffic. To get around this wealthy people would go to villages and pay under the table to local officials to get their licenses issued from those towns. I personally witnessed this once with my boss who used to take me around as his token white friend to meet people where his rich friends daughter got a license by paying a local mayor for it while we all smoke cigarettes and tea in his office.

It was bizarre, but far from the most bizarre thing I witnessed along these lines. Playing Majong at a village mayors fish farm with "collections" guys from Macau is up on that list.

Ultimately my point being, I don't think that major cities are necessarily going to be where the bulk of +100,000 USD cars are registered in China. I could be wrong though.
 
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