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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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We expect a better understanding of Tesla’s short-term plans for production at the Gigafactory to come out of the event. The company says that it aims for 50 GWh of production in 2018, but plans for 2017 are not as clear.

If they stay true to the timeline, we should see some revenues starting from Q1 itself and hopefully it's ramped enough by Q2 to start delivering a positive cash flow.

Hopefully by Q1 ER they can start delivering a positive cash flow! They've had the TE automated assembly line set up for full months. The bottleneck has been lack of cells. If they can produce cells in quantity they should be able to do an almost instantaneous TE ramp.
 
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Some may have been following the list of all available inventory P100D/P90D MS cars that a forum user here on TMC generated by 'scraping' the Tesla websites. A list of all cars available on 12/2 and again morning of 12/28 are posted on the relevant thread. Of the 500 hundred cars listed 12/2, 70 were no longer present on the 12/28 list but were replaced with 62 other cars (different VINS). If those 70 cars were indeed sold, that would have been just shy of 10million dollars worth of inventory P100D/P90D sold during those 3.5 weeks (not including 12/25).
 
Speigal is predicting 18500 deliveries in Q4 with terrible margins. Maybe algorithms are listening. Someone labeled ISO 14000 predicts 17000. Looking forward to clearing up Q4 speculation next week.
Mark B. Spiegel on Twitter

For deliveries to be that bad, based on VIN tracking, that would suggest that TSLA produced some 8,000 or so cars they couldn't sell this quarter. Seems... unlikely at best.
 
Electrek coverage of Jan4 GF event: Tesla CEO Elon Musk to participate in Q&A at a Gigafactory event for investors next week

Sounds like we get remarks and Q&A with Elon + JB, plus factory tours.

Sure sounds to me like there is cell production and PowerWall2's ready-to-install to show off. If you're in TSLA management shoes, would you invite investors to see the inside of your potemkin village factory if you didn't?

I think its really a case of TSLA wanting to show off that they can in fact execute something on exactly the advertised schedule.

I really wish the headline for this was "...event for some investors next week" since it isn't for all investors. Right? Not all, right? Cuz I sure as hell am an investor for over four years and didn't get an invite.
 
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We expect a better understanding of Tesla’s short-term plans for production at the Gigafactory to come out of the event. The company says that it aims for 50 GWh of production in 2018, but plans for 2017 are not as clear.
Some quick math:

- Phase 1 is 1/7 of the final size
- Phases 1&2 are 40% of the final size and will produce 50 gWh in 2018

That implies that Phase 1 could produce around 18 gWh in 2017.
 
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