Shorting Oil, Hedging Tesla

[TheTalkingMule]

Please lord let this fool start throwing down massive crude oil tariffs.

Trump aims to ease U.S. oil industry's cash crunch, no plan to trim output: sources

 

[TheTalkingMule]

It's illegal to price fix but not illegal for SOPP (Socialist Oil Producers of the Permian©) to agree on supply cuts.

Explainer: Antitrust law won't get in the way of U.S. acting to raise oil prices

 

[mspohr]

Please lord let this fool start throwing down massive crude oil tariffs.

Trump aims to ease U.S. oil industry's cash crunch, no plan to trim output: sources

A few gems

Interior Secretary David Bernhardt, who was also on the call, said he was making federal lands available to drillers and considering a series of other options to help oil companies, but provided no details.

The energy industry had also expected the administration to offer some additional ways to help the industry weather the crisis, including waiving royalty payments from drillers for oil produced on federal lands, imposing an import tariff on foreign crude oil or easing shipping regulations. One of the sources called the outcome “a waste of time”.

 

[mspohr]

OPEC Meeting Is Delayed as Saudi and Russian Tensions Flare OPEC Meeting Is Delayed as Saudi and Russian Tensions Flare

A meeting planned for Monday between officials of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other oil producers, which had buoyed hopes for a deal to end the turmoil in energy markets, has been put off, according to two OPEC delegates.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

So far we've seen....

1) The POTUS adding stimulus and protections for US producers

2) Saudi and Russian sniping in the media

3) US producers refusing to curtail production

Not sure how all that equals a massive rally in WTI? Time to short with SCO perhaps. I have to think buying into SCO on three EIA report days in a row would be profitable.

 

[Dr. J]

Oil up a lot yet again for no reason. FRO @ $7 today?

I had a buy order just above that, but didn't fill. Maybe next week.

 

[Dr. J]

It's illegal to price fix but not illegal for SOPP (Socialist Oil Producers of the Permian©) to agree on supply cuts.

Explainer: Antitrust law won't get in the way of U.S. acting to raise oil prices

Limiting US oil production would seem to require coordination of several states' regulators, because I don't think the feds have that power. Not impossible, but seems unlikely and only partially workable.

Nice acronym, though.

 

[mspohr]

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Putin's Oil Price Gambit Has Run Out of Road
Russia was happy to take the pain of lower oil prices in its fight with U.S. shale producers. But that was before Covid-19 changed the game.

Moscow is pragmatic. But Trump will need to make some concession-like noises at least on American production cuts, to help Putin save face. Not easy, but given the shut-ins already triggered by the price fall, also not impossible, with the help of U.S. state energy regulators. Other non-OPEC producer nations may have to join in.

 

[renim]

I expect that although both USA Republicans amd Democrats had differing views of Trump's 'American Energy Dominance' I doubt either thought that OPEC+ would arrive at this state so quickly....

Curious times.

 

[mspohr]

Saudi Arabia Sends Wave Of Supertankers To U.S. Ahead Of Oil Meeting | OilPrice.com

The world’s top oil exporter, Saudi Arabia, is making good on its promise to flood the world with oil even as demand collapses, with a surge in tankers carrying Saudi crude to the United States, tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg showed on Wednesday.

 

[mspohr]

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Trump Forced by Oil War Into Unthinkable Push for Higher Prices

Donald Trump is trying to do something no U.S. president has dared to do in decades: Drive up the price of oil.

“If we were energy dominant,” he said, “we would not be groveling to these countries to cut production.”

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Saudi Arabia Sends Wave Of Supertankers To U.S. Ahead Of Oil Meeting | OilPrice.com

The world’s top oil exporter, Saudi Arabia, is making good on its promise to flood the world with oil even as demand collapses, with a surge in tankers carrying Saudi crude to the United States, tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg showed on Wednesday.

I mean.....this is an absolute trainwreck and we're at $33.50 Brent. How is that possible?

Saudis have been holding back deliveries to the US on purpose since spring 2017 to make our stockpiles look undersupplied. This new level of shipments might be "an attack on US shale", but in reality we're just taking things back to where they were in 2016. A normal day recently is 330-700kb/d, the old normal was 1-1.5Mb/d.

US imports from Saudi Arabia 2016-present:



Saudi storage has been assumed to be overflowing for years, now that they've simply resumed normal US shipments we think they're gonna consider making cuts to support pricing? No way in hell. Not after everyone and their mother now knows demand has either peaked or is about to.

We need to make sure this is framed in our minds as normal production, not some kind of all out Saudi pumping. That may be coming at some point, but it's not here yet.......it's already an insurmountable mess.

I'm into FRO to leverage this perma-glut. Probably should have doubled-down on the dip earlier today, but will look to gather more around $7.60 if we touch that again.

Chevron is nearing freakin $90 a share today and is almost back to it's 5 year average! If that can be maintained long enough for options to adjust and get cheap, I'm into 2022 CVX puts with strikes around $40-$60.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Saudi Arabia Sends Wave Of Supertankers To U.S. Ahead Of Oil Meeting | OilPrice.com

The world’s top oil exporter, Saudi Arabia, is making good on its promise to flood the world with oil even as demand collapses, with a surge in tankers carrying Saudi crude to the United States, tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg showed on Wednesday.

After seeing TheTalkingMule's reply, I'm wondering if this could be used in a terrorist act? Imagine a bunch of oil tankers (which tend to leak) holding station off the shores of a target nation. "Buy our oil, or they'll continue to leak and foul your marine ecosystem and fisheries"?! It'll be like BP Horizon again, but this time with subconscious intent!

 

[adiggs]

Chevron is nearing freakin $90 a share today and is almost back to it's 5 year average! If that can be maintained long enough for options to adjust and get cheap, I'm into 2022 CVX puts with strikes around $40-$60.

I've been thinking about how to play what I see as the imminent stock market collapse due to the ongoing shutdown of the economy. I've been doing whole economy puts, but this might be a more targeted and volatile / downward moving possibility.

Heck Chevron is still saying that their first capital priority is maintaining the dividend. I'm thinking "who is going to loan you money to pay out in dividends?"


Maybe we're finally getting to a Shorting Oil opportunity that doesn't need a 5 year option!

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I've been thinking about how to play what I see as the imminent stock market collapse due to the ongoing shutdown of the economy. I've been doing whole economy puts, but this might be a more targeted and volatile / downward moving possibility.

Heck Chevron is still saying that their first capital priority is maintaining the dividend. I'm thinking "who is going to loan you money to pay out in dividends?"

The great part is that all this election year stimulus will give us a nearly full recovery that we know can't hold. My goals are to clear any TSLA sold put obligations in the next month or so, then start buying 2022 oil puts.

Maybe we're finally getting to a Shorting Oil opportunity that doesn't need a 5 year option!

We were in the window already before coronavirus, the opportunity is even greater if a full recovery is present in June. Deee-licious.

 

[adiggs]

I like the way you're thinking @TheTalkingMule .

The stimulus is going to provide an amazing sugar high for awhile. But at some point, all that cash sloshing around is going to go looking for economic activity to make claims on, and there won't be enough economic activity for the cash to claim.

I've been thinking Jun 21 puts, partly because I think that's far enough out for the economy and market to adjust (at least mostly), and partly because the premiums are lower.

 

[jhm]

I mean.....this is an absolute trainwreck and we're at $33.50 Brent. How is that possible?

Saudis have been holding back deliveries to the US on purpose since spring 2017 to make our stockpiles look undersupplied. This new level of shipments might be "an attack on US shale", but in reality we're just taking things back to where they were in 2016. A normal day recently is 330-700kb/d, the old normal was 1-1.5Mb/d.

US imports from Saudi Arabia 2016-present:

View attachment 530770

Saudi storage has been assumed to be overflowing for years, now that they've simply resumed normal US shipments we think they're gonna consider making cuts to support pricing? No way in hell. Not after everyone and their mother now knows demand has either peaked or is about to.

We need to make sure this is framed in our minds as normal production, not some kind of all out Saudi pumping. That may be coming at some point, but it's not here yet.......it's already an insurmountable mess.

I'm into FRO to leverage this perma-glut. Probably should have doubled-down on the dip earlier today, but will look to gather more around $7.60 if we touch that again.

Chevron is nearing freakin $90 a share today and is almost back to it's 5 year average! If that can be maintained long enough for options to adjust and get cheap, I'm into 2022 CVX puts with strikes around $40-$60.

The only explanation is that oil investors are a cult.

 

[jhm]

Oil Could Fall Back To $20 | OilPrice.com

Shocking just how fast and far oil demand as fallen. Maybe as much as 26 mb/d!

 

[TheTalkingMule]

The only explanation is that oil investors are a cult.

I nearly forgot.....up is now down!

 

[ggies07]

Oh, this should go well.....

Exclusive: U.S. banks prepare to seize energy assets as shale boom goes bust