Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements

[mershaw2001]

I'm actually rather pleased to see that this is the best the shorts, false analysts, paid shills and media plants can do to tank the stock today. So far, not really so bad. They really, really don't want Tesla to win and are starting to use more of their collective might to work against it.

Fortunately, this is desperation. It is the lashing out of an industry about to be disrupted completely. They are beginning to realize this. It would be foolish to assume they will go out quietly.

This is my sentiment exactly. I don't plan on buying right here, as I made some key purchases in teh past 3 days that makes me feel overloaded with tesla (and I'd only buy more on a move below 16). However, if the hardest they can push is the the first support level, then we're looking good. I see good times in the future late next week for tesla, give it a day or two of going up a dollar at a time next week, and then we'll start to see capitulation on some shorts.

 

[AlMc]

Those are some pricey options my friend. But on the positive side as long as 170 holds you should be profitable.

Thought the LEAPS were actually a good 'deal' with the idea that TSLA will be well over $200 in the next year. The Nov 8th are just so I can see what will happen with the 3rdQ ER on the 5th.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Sorry to pick on you RO but...

Didn't we just have a discussion about how some of us are already weary of posts like this?

It's almost to the point where I have to shorten my signature so that I can add a "YMMV/YouManageYourOwnMoney/IfYouGambleWithTheMarketItsOnYou" type stuff. This isn't a child's forum, and if people are treating it as such then they should find iamthecauliflower and have lunch to complain every 20 seconds about how the sky is falling.

i thought we were weary of posts complaining about people with posts like that or is it people complaining about people complaing about posts like that? of course we could have just ignored it and there would be one post to ignore instead of three

 

[Lessmog]

Haha, or four.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Sorry to pick on you RO but...

Didn't we just have a discussion about how some of us are already weary of posts like this?

It's almost to the point where I have to shorten my signature so that I can add a "YMMV/YouManageYourOwnMoney/IfYouGambleWithTheMarketItsOnYou" type stuff. This isn't a child's forum, and if people are treating it as such then they should find iamthecauliflower and have lunch to complain every 20 seconds about how the sky is falling.

I tend to post a lot of cautionary stuff too, but this is the "chat" thread so I think the standards are a bit looser than in the serious "short term" thread.

Besides, I often see posts that appear to be despairing, so I try to put some balance back in with my perspective.

 

[Citizen-T]

I worry about the number of people here trying to day trade TSLA. The company is fundamentally a long-term story. Yes, there was a period this year when pretty much any long strategy brought in $$$. I fear that taught some people to be a little reckless. Short-term TSLA plays at this point are little more than gambling.

There are lots of people that are not day trading TSLA. Funny thing is that they don't frequent the Short Term TSLA Investor thread.

 

[woof]

170 Nov8 @12.50
170 Jan17 2015 @ 42.00
180 Jan 17 2015 @ 36.00

Those are some pricey options my friend.

How does one determine if those are "pricey" or not? I'm curious as to how one values options.

Also, as it appears that many of the readers here are just selling the options before they expire, does the original "price" matter much, or is it more about how close/far the option tracks movements in TSLA?

 

[Clemsons2k]

How does one determine if those are "pricey" or not? I'm curious as to how one values options.

Also, as it appears that many of the readers here are just selling the options before they expire, does the original "price" matter much, or is it more about how close/far the option tracks movements in TSLA?

Well I guess pricey is a relative term. A single option for $4200 is pricey for my portfolio but probably not for his. Also the IV is pretty high right now so all options are on the pricey side compared to if the stock wasn't all over the place.

And the original price does matter as its what you're paying for the contract. Whatever the price is when you sell before expiration dictates how much money you get or lose.

 

[AlMc]

How does one determine if those are "pricey" or not? I'm curious as to how one values options.

Also, as it appears that many of the readers here are just selling the options before they expire, does the original "price" matter much, or is it more about how close/far the option tracks movements in TSLA?

Woof...These are my first, and possibly last, options. My beginners strategy was that I wanted a small option play for earnings as I suspect we have a good ER on the 5th I hope the stock rises into at least the 185 range and I may make a couple bucks. The Jan17, 2015 did not seem pricey to me as I firmly believe before I start really getting 'time decay' in late 2004 that we will see $230-240 (hopefully after Q1 earnings is my plan) and I will make a couple bucks there. If not, TSLA has been good to me and I won't lose sleep if I sell them at a loss.

Where in Mass are you... I grew up in Chelmsford/Lowell area and still have family there.

 

[ckessel]

It's become pretty clear to me I picked the precisely ultimate wrong moment in time to use TSLA options. I started, almost to the day (Oct 1st on a "dip" from the Sept 30th ATH), when TSLA went flat and into decline and broke its many months long upward trend. Yay me.

I also bought TSLA originally, almost literally to the minute, before TSLA had a serious crash back when 2 execs left the company a couple years ago.

Yay me again, fortunately that recovered quickly as as pure stock I was holding for years it mattered little. Still, my ability to hit exactly the wrong moment in time to buy is just scary. If I'd bought just the next day, not even at the knife edge drop, I'd have quite a bit more money now.

At this point, I'm just praying the Q3 earnings gets me to break even and I'll probably never play TSLA options again (aside from LEAPS, but those are quite different).

 

[brianman]

How does one determine if those are "pricey" or not? I'm curious as to how one values options.

I'm cheap. Any option over ~5% of the strike price is "pricey". It feels like you're basically more on the path toward just buying the stock rather than an option.

- - - Updated - - -

It's become pretty clear to me I picked the precisely ultimate wrong moment in time to use TSLA options. I started, almost to the day (Oct 1st on a "dip" from the Sept 30th ATH), when TSLA went flat and into decline and broke its many months long upward trend. Yay me.

I also bought TSLA originally, almost literally to the minute, before TSLA had a serious crash back when 2 execs left the company a couple years ago.

Yay me again, fortunately that recovered quickly as as pure stock I was holding for years it mattered little. Still, my ability to hit exactly the wrong moment in time to buy is just scary. If I'd bought just the next day, not even at the knife edge drop, I'd have quite a bit more money now.

At this point, I'm just praying the Q3 earnings gets me to break even and I'll probably never play TSLA options again (aside from LEAPS, but those are quite different).

If you're limiting yourself to CALLs rather than CALLs and PUTs, that might be the issue.

Buying a PUT right before a drop is gold.

 

[ckessel]

If you're limiting yourself to CALLs rather than CALLs and PUTs, that might be the issue.

Buying a PUT right before a drop is gold.

Well, if I'd thought the stock (well, all my stocks) were going to drop, I'd have bought puts.

 

[brianman]

Well, if I'd thought the stock (well, all my stocks) were going to drop, I'd have bought puts.

Sorry, I should have quoted a smaller portion. The part that motivated me to reply was "I picked the precisely ultimate wrong moment in time to use TSLA options." This part I disagreed with.

The "ultimate wrong moment" to use options (independent of strategy) is either (a) when the stock price has essentially zero volatility for an extended period (no price motion) or (b) when the stock price has "significant" volatility for an extended period. (a) is bad for the option buyer. (b) can be bad for the option seller, depending on whether his/her strategy is +/- relative to the specific volatility.

 

[ckessel]

Sorry, I should have quoted a smaller portion. The part that motivated me to reply was "I picked the precisely ultimate wrong moment in time to use TSLA options." This part I disagreed with.

Fine, seems pedantic. How about, I picked the precise moment in time when TSLA decided to change it's months long behavior.

 

[AlMc]

Fine, seems pedantic. How about, I picked the precise moment in time when TSLA decided to change it's months long behavior.

Please announce a day in advance what TSLA investment decisions you will be making moving forward so that we may all profit from them!:wink:

Yeah...Like I always get the timing and direction correct......NOT

 

[brianman]

Fine, seems pedantic. How about, I picked the precise moment in time when TSLA decided to change it's months long behavior.

Not sure I agree with the characterization ("change its months long behavior") but now I understood your point better. Thanks for the clarification.

 

[woof]

The Jan17, 2015 did not seem pricey to me as I firmly believe before I start really getting 'time decay' in late 2004 that we will see $230-240 (hopefully after Q1 earnings is my plan) and I will make a couple bucks there. If not, TSLA has been good to me and I won't lose sleep if I sell them at a loss.

It seems the long term options are touted as a long term share replacement strategy...a means to control more shares with less money. 2015 is a ways away, plenty of time to see a profit. If by 2015 TSLA isn't above $170 (barring a stock split), we're all in trouble.

Where in Mass are you... I grew up in Chelmsford/Lowell area and still have family there.

North Shore, not far from Chelmsford. Peak Foliage was last week--love the autumns here.

 

[ckessel]

It seems the long term options are touted as a long term share replacement strategy...a means to control more shares with less money. 2015 is a ways away, plenty of time to see a profit. If by 2015 TSLA isn't above $170 (barring a stock split), we're all in trouble.

Yea, that was my plan when I bought LEAPS. I sold TSLA, bought about 20% more in Jan2015 LEAPS with a break even point around $195, so pretty conservative. With the remaining money after converting to LEAPS I've been buying solar and options.

Sadly, that cunning plan is not playing out well. Options have been hammered, TSLA particularly, but even almost all the solar is underwater after the last couple weeks. The most concerning right now are the Nov 1 TSLA175s I got back when we "dipped" near $180. Historically, at the time, it seemed very unlikely it'd be a big loss since they were ITM at purchase, but right now it's looking at a very possible 100% loss with only 5 days left.

If you're completely tied into full stock and want to play short term while not losing all the long term, LEAPS seem useful for that. I'm wishing I hadn't, but that's not the fault of the LEAPS.

 

[Causalien]

Ckessel, there's something about George Soros that I think will help you and everyone else in the trading game. He is a billionaire for good reasons and personally, I think he is actually richer than Warren Buffett after having to meet with one of his team on his site. He is more of the private billionaire who doesn't broadcast his total wealth.
The thing about his trading is this. He says he trades based on his gut feelings. Now that might sound laughable at first, but most people miss the sentence that comes afterward. (Because nowadays journalists just takes the first sentence and say "Gotcha"). He actually goes into detailed explanation on how it works.

There are very distinct physiological trait that is associated with two of his most powerful emotions: Greed and fear. They manifest in pains at different part of his body so he knows exactly the moment he gets too greedy and too fearful. Sell on greed and buy on fear.

I believe that it took him several year to develop and hone those responses, but it is what I did as well.

 

[clmason]

Some good discussion happening over the past 24 hours over at the Julian Cox Expert Analysis thread. Quite educational and entertaining. Glad all the experts are chiming in.

In light of the debate, Cash on hand and change vs prior quarter is a crucial KPI, at least more important than I previously understood.