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Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements

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Out of curiosity, what are people expecting to find out tomorrow that could cause a big jump? Do big firms actually sit in on these meetings and make buying decisions on the fly? Maybe I'm naive, but I just can't picture a room full of people with their phones out and fingers hovering over the "Buy" button hanging off Elon's every word.[/QUOTE]



As Robert said, most shareholder meetings are like watching paint dry. However, TM/Elon seem to be a different breed. Curt gave the example of the Detroit auto show. If you were on a live feed from the show and bought as soon as Jerome announced deliveries far exceeding guidance and picked up your cell phone/computer and bought calls immediately you would have had a 10 bagger.

Now, I do not expect this type of announcement at the meeting tomorrow and I might lose a good portion of my investment in June calls but IMO (and don't anyone take my advice as I made a killng on 'auto show' calls but have since seen much of that money evaporate) it is a good risk/reward play.
 
Out of curiosity, what are people expecting to find out tomorrow that could cause a big jump? Do big firms actually sit in on these meetings and make buying decisions on the fly? Maybe I'm naive, but I just can't picture a room full of people with their phones out and fingers hovering over the "Buy" button hanging off Elon's every word.[/QUOTE]



As Robert said, most shareholder meetings are like watching paint dry. However, TM/Elon seem to be a different breed. Curt gave the example of the Detroit auto show. If you were on a live feed from the show and bought as soon as Jerome announced deliveries far exceeding guidance and picked up your cell phone/computer and bought calls immediately you would have had a 10 bagger.

Now, I do not expect this type of announcement at the meeting tomorrow and I might lose a good portion of my investment in June calls but IMO (and don't anyone take my advice as I made a killng on 'auto show' calls but have since seen much of that money evaporate) it is a good risk/reward play.

No don't expect any crazy orders in until information gets absorbed. What will be good is Investors get to ask serious questions and not those less sophisticated rushed questions on the Conference Calls
 
Pretty much the same here. I bought a 215 today and two 225's as a lottery ticket.

What time is the call? I might be sitting in the service center when it happens. If it turns out good I'll go buy them a case of beer. And tell them to thank their boss. :D

PS: I hope I have to buy a case of beer on Monday.

Updated: (Oh shoot, it's Tuesday, never mind. )

Hi. Would someone be willing to explain to a complete novice what this lottery ticket type of weekly order(s) means? I get conceptually at the end of a week you think the stock price will be up to 215 or as a wilder gamble yet to 225 per share. How would that be described in plain english perhaps? I'm not asking for specific advice as much as hopefully less lingo or shorthand so that I can learn more and ultimately understand what you're talking about better.

Thanks
 
Short-term options react to changes in the price of their underlying stock in an exaggerated manner. For example, the price of the stock may rise 2%, and the corresponding weekly option may rise 100%. On the other hand, if the stock drops a few % (or doesn't move at all as the option expiration approaches), the option price will approach zero and ultimately expire worthless.

That's extremely oversimplified, but hopefully it gives you an idea of what folks are talking about.

In the example of the Detroit show, people who were Johnny-on-the-spot buying weeklies right after Jerome let the cat out of the bag were able to sell them for obscene gains later that day as the news sunk in and the price of TSLA jumped.
 
Thank you. I got the lottery ticket analogy of either an obscene big winner or a worthless scap of paper depending on the events of the week when it expires. A pure gamble. Is there an online simulator or calculator or something you might recommend that I could play with to learn a little more and possibly model a 215 and 225 movement in TSLA scenario?
 
Thank you. I got the lottery ticket analogy of either an obscene big winner or a worthless scap of paper depending on the events of the week when it expires. A pure gamble. Is there an online simulator or calculator or something you might recommend that I could play with to learn a little more and possibly model a 215 and 225 movement in TSLA scenario?

Of course to trade options you must first be a client of a stock brokerage that has approved you for an options account. Here is the tutorial from the Chicago Board Options Exchange where I took classes, participated in mock floor trading, and daily interviewed market makers: http://www.cboe.com/LearnCenter/Tutorials.aspx
 
Thank you. I got the lottery ticket analogy of either an obscene big winner or a worthless scap of paper depending on the events of the week when it expires. A pure gamble. Is there an online simulator or calculator or something you might recommend that I could play with to learn a little more and possibly model a 215 and 225 movement in TSLA scenario?

Honestly it is easier to just do it in your head.

For example (hypotheticals), if the stock is 205 and you buy 1 weekly 215 call for $100 and the stock jumps up to 220, then the option will now be worth $900ish ($500 because 220-215 = 5 + $400ish for time value + IV). If the stock closes at $220 on Friday then that option would be worth $500. (Most people would sell it before close to avoid having to actually buy the 100 shares.) So your $100 investment got you $900 if you sell it right away, which is a 9 fold return (9-bagger).

Now, same situation, but you buy the 205 call for $400 instead. The stock jumps to 220 - now it is worth $1,900 ($1,500 because 220-205 = 15 + $400 for time value + IV). So this time your $400 investment became $1,900, which is almost a 5-bagger.

You can quickly make these calculations in your head looking at strike prices and contract costs, then estimating return based on different scenarios of what the stock moves to.

If the stock stays flat, goes down, or only goes up a bit, then the 205 call will retain more value (less % loss); thus, it is safer to buy an at-the-money call but less potential for major return if the stock goes way up.

I don't really see it as a lottery ticket because if nothing happens during the 2 hours meeting, I am planning to just sell all my calls afterwards for minimal loss (assuming it doesn't drop much in the meantime). Kind of low risk, potential high reward.
 
To all TMC members attending the shareholder's meeting. Wish I was there, I know it will be fun. Ask meaningful questions as we will all benefit from the answers! Especially counting on Flux and DaveT to 'hog' the microphone:wink::biggrin:
 
To all TMC members attending the shareholder's meeting. Wish I was there, I know it will be fun. Ask meaningful questions as we will all benefit from the answers! Especially counting on Flux and DaveT to 'hog' the microphone:wink::biggrin:

Just got to my seat, front row :smile:. I don't think I'll be asking questions but I hope to see some other TMCers on the mic as well.
 
I joined the few others in line for a lottery ticket and I got me some $215 weeklies. I'm hoping Elon announces a vertical take-off and landing option for the Model X.
Would explain "Grasshopper Mode" in the maintenance screen. :)
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