The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
I bought them back earlier today at $0.17 per share. Didn't want to risk a last minute spike. I made a few pennies and managed to avoid the steamroller.
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Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements
- Thread starter Jonathan Hewitt
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Smart move. Glad to hear it wasn't a losing trade even though it didn't turn out as you hoped.
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
No, it turned out just as I'd hoped. I had sold them for $1.28 and left only $0.17 on the table.
Edit for full disclosure: I then went long the same number of contracts, again at 210, this time hoping for a spike
A lottery ticket that left my gains at $1.00 per share. I'm happy.
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I'm considering doing the same. I like ~$10 OTM because it usually costs somewhere close to a dollar for weeklies. So you can get a few contracts for a 3-digit amount of money, which is nice.
I did a spreadsheet analysis and found that 2% OTM on weeklies provided the optimum return over 26 weeks if there is no trend in TSLA. If there is an upward trend, long term options give better results. (But don't take my word for it, as I'm a hack)
I have been averse to weeklies because I don't like seeing my money disappearing over random events. If I look at it as a strategy to be repeated weekly, it feels more like relying on the probabilities to come out ahead in the end. Unless there is some goofy action Monday morning, I think I will try starting my 2% OTM strategy then.
pz1975
Active Member
I reserve weekly options for exactly things like next week - potential major positive catalysts with no expectation (there low IV unlike ERs). The Detroit auto show was the perfect example where I achieved a 10-bagger in one day. Even if I had lost everything I had put in, it was worth the risk. I don't know if there will be any catalysts at all next week, but I think the odds are greater than 10-20% so I am willing to take the chance to potentially make a 5-10 bagger. I bought some calls before close today in case things go up Monday. If not, then I will add more before the shareholder's meeting (probably 5-10% OTM) and sell after for probably minimal loss if nothing happens.
This is the strategy I am employing as well. Over the last few days I have 'tried' to dollar cost average some June 6 210s. If we have further drop Monday I may add a couple more OR if flat or a slight rise some 215s. It certainly does NOT feel like the auto show where I was very sure we would see a spike (I was amazed at the size of the spike!) but I think we have a better than even chance of having positive news come out of the annual meeting. Of course, a 'macro' event could occur in the US or Globally that wrecks that plan.......I think I recall some European economic news is to come out on next Friday so if we get a nice rise Tues/Weds I will probably close the position and not take a chance of a general market dip late in the week.
InTheShadows
Active Member
Pretty much the same here. I bought a 215 today and two 225's as a lottery ticket.
What time is the call? I might be sitting in the service center when it happens. If it turns out good I'll go buy them a case of beer. And tell them to thank their boss.
PS: I hope I have to buy a case of beer on Monday.
Updated: (Oh shoot, it's Tuesday, never mind. )
Funny I am sort of happy seeing TSLA down a little if I am going to play the weeklies tomorrow. I figure there is a higher chance of an upward movement even with no news. If we end up rallying up towards $220 prior to the meeting I probably won't buy anything at all.
I didn't wait until the meeting I picked some up right before the close today. If we are down again tomorrow I'll pick a few more up as the meeting starts and will probably close everything out by the end of the day even if I'm down a few dollars. Of course if I get lucky and they double by tomorrow morning I'll sell half.
Out of curiosity, what are people expecting to find out tomorrow that could cause a big jump? Do big firms actually sit in on these meetings and make buying decisions on the fly? Maybe I'm naive, but I just can't picture a room full of people with their phones out and fingers hovering over the "Buy" button hanging off Elon's every word.
pz1975
Active Member
Who knows with Elon/Tesla? They have been known to let out important news at unexpected times (Detroit auto show for example). I think most people here are just taking a chance that IF something comes out, then they have some short-term calls on board to leverage a nice profit. It is easier this week than an ER week because the IV is low and won't suddenly drop after the meeting tomorrow so there won't be any significant loss in the value of the calls if the stock trades sideways tomorrow. If nothing comes out, then the calls can be traded back in for minimal loss. My expectation of some kind of news that could bump up the stock to be about a 25% chance. That is easily worth the risk for a potential multi-bagger with minimal risk.
As an aside, how does drivel like this (Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA): Why The Stock Is Questionable | ETF DAILY NEWS) continue to get published? Every main point in this article is completely and easily proven false. I guess the good news is that as long as people believe this junk, the stock will still have lots of room to go up.
Shareholder annual meetings in most companies are dull, completely un-newsworthy. But Tesla isn't most companies....
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