I know exactly that feeling. I get it even when at a minimum long. Definitely not alone on that one
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Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements
- Thread starter Jonathan Hewitt
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I know exactly that feeling. I get it even when at a minimum long. Definitely not alone on that one
pz1975
Active Member
I sold some July11 250 calls yesterday. I have them covered with Jan15 250 calls. Just looking to scalp some extra cash while I wait to roll those forward.
Bull market
Are we witnessing one of the greatest bull markets in history?
The equity-only put/call ratio is hitting extreme levels. In fact, it's nearing one of its lowest-ever levels. On Wednesday, the put/call ratio closed at 0.38. Since 2003, the ratio has only dropped lower than that on six occasions. The recent divergence between the two is absolutely mesmerizing
Are we witnessing one of the greatest bull markets in history?
The equity-only put/call ratio is hitting extreme levels. In fact, it's nearing one of its lowest-ever levels. On Wednesday, the put/call ratio closed at 0.38. Since 2003, the ratio has only dropped lower than that on six occasions. The recent divergence between the two is absolutely mesmerizing
InTheShadows
Active Member
Are we witnessing one of the greatest bull markets in history?
The equity-only put/call ratio is hitting extreme levels. In fact, it's nearing one of its lowest-ever levels. On Wednesday, the put/call ratio closed at 0.38. Since 2003, the ratio has only dropped lower than that on six occasions. The recent divergence between the two is absolutely mesmerizing
What does that mean?
Gauge for market sentiment. Lower the ratio, more bullish 'the market'. However, like everything, contrarians look at it as an indicator as well. Feeling it is time to buy (high ratio) when everyone is buying puts and time to sell (low ratio) when everyone else is buying calls.
But as the ratio declines it is suppose to indicate a bullish sentiment. Auzie's chart indicates very bullish sentiment.
SPY is a fund that mimics S&P 500 performance. S&P 500 is index that represents 500 companies listed on NSYE and Nasdaq
The graph shows SPY rise and rise from 2009 (value of 70 at the bottom) to now, value of 196.26.
The over laid graph shows put/call ratio of equities. This ratio gauges market sentiment. The ratio is calculated by dividing the number of traded put options with the number of traded call options.
Market seems to be happy:biggrin: This guy explains it better
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InTheShadows
Active Member
So it's an overall market sentiment, not a tsla specific sentiment? The contrarian side if me says look out though.
I guess for the technical reader it means that the market is going to move pretty good one way or the other depending on your view.
Tesla is a business that is very sensitive to market sentiment.
The market sentiment is very real and not in any way connected to technical analysis.
What I see on the graphs is that the businesses are doing good. US economy is thriving. Companies are making profits.
Imo saying I will take a contrarian approach and sell when everyone is buying is likely to fail. There is more chance of success if one looks at multiple economic indicators and makes his/her decision based on multiple indicators and data.
It also helps a lot if one is born under a lucky star:biggrin:.
The way I look at it is if TSLA had a big run up (such as this week) for no real big reason (such as this week), then selling calls is a way of locking in that big profit you made on TSLA. Since TSLA ran up for no very good reason as much as it did, then you should expect it to pullback (which it did). Since it pulled back, the calls that you sold allowed you to minimize that loss and to keep all of the gain that you made. Now you can use that gain to reload on TSLA since it pulled back and all...
On the other hand if it goes up even more, then remember that you already made a big gain and those calls you sold added to your gain on top of that. All you did was capped your upside, since you did not believe that TSLA deserves to go any higher on the somewhat insignificant news that pushed TSLA up too much this week; up 10%.
Like I said this strategy is not for everyone. I sold some SPWR $32.50's a couple weeks back, and had to roll them to $33, and then to $34. But this week it went to $40 and I had my shares called away for $34. Missed out on a big gain, but I was long SPWR elsewhere and have huge long positions in other solar stocks and TSLA, so my portfolio did really good this week anyway. All I did was limit my upside a little bit, but if the week was flat or down for solars then the short calls would have been a great idea.
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The reason I say this is because IMO SCTY is looking for a relatively large share offering to get started on the manufacturing facility and for other corporate purposes, since their operations and business model bleed a lot of cash, and will continue doing so for the foreseeable future. For this reason, I am not a fan of going long SCTY after this big run up.
I am not a fan of shorting it either, since I think that Elon and the investment banks collude to move stock prices (both TSLA and SCTY) in order to get favorable terms when they raise capital. I suspect that what they do is potentially illegal, but it is impossible to prove and the SEC would never look into this, especially since everyone else does this. The whole game on Wall St. is rigged.
When I bought those SCTY puts yesterday, I was watching price action very closely to derive an exit point. I noticed that as soon as SCTY would start going down, some MM would start putting in big blocking bids to prevent the stock from falling into a downward spiral. I feel like MM are working hard to prop up the stock price of SCTY in order to raise capital on more favorable terms. This is exactly what Adam Jonas did (probably in collaboration with MS's MM's) to prop up TSLA prior to GF capital raise.
Elon plays the game too: he knew that they needed a lot of cash for GF, so he guided Q4 very low and then pulled every trick in the book to get to 6900 deliveries, even though they produced 500 less cars than they sold. He then instructed Jerome to say 6900 at Detroit Auto Show to get the stock moving.
I am fairly certain that Elon, Goldman, MS, etc. are all working together to make Elon's Earth saving mission become a reality. I am not going to argue against this, because it is a very noble cause and there is literally no other way to save the world than by playing this kind of game that is borderline illegal. Everybody on Wall St. does something similar so if Elon just sat quiet and went about doing his thing by himself then he would get clobbered. You have to work the system to get what you want.
This is my honest opinion, and I could be very wrong; but there are just way too many "coincidences" happening in the past. In any case, I am going to go find some flame retardant suit to put on for all of the flack I am about to get for posting this :scared:
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
After watching todays price action I got more and more confident about next week.
I bought some calls with different strike prices from 220$, 230$, 240$, 250$ that expire in sept.
Let's see next week if that was a good move
Good luck to all with your investments and have a nice weekend!
I bought some calls with different strike prices from 220$, 230$, 240$, 250$ that expire in sept.
Let's see next week if that was a good move
Good luck to all with your investments and have a nice weekend!
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anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
Sounds good. Thanks for the info!
I can't wait to see how many cars/week Fremont will be producing with 2 lines. With higher production numbers and a prototype Model X likely for this Fall, I think the last half of this year is going to see a big swing upwards in share price. That being said, this week was a great week! :smile:
green1
Active Member
I am not aware of Tesla ever making one of their promised deadlines yet, and a site has yet to be announced, so I'd say that the odds of breaking ground this month are somewhere between zero and none. My big hope is that the lack of breaking ground doesn't send the stock in to a big dive. I do expect a good positive bump once ground finally is broken though.
After watching todays price action I got more and more confident about next week.
I bought some calls with different strike prices from 220$, 230$, 240$, 250$ that expire in sept.
Let's see next week if that was a good move
Good luck to all with your investments and have a nice weekend!
I sold some calls tonight. Here is an idea, maybe we could establish direct TSLA exchange here, by pass brokers:biggrin:.
Another question, how do we know they haven't already broken ground? Maybe they don't want to bother with a press release etc until they are farther along?
maybe..
when I was in Las Vegas service an employee said they were waiting for a big announcement in the next week or two internally. His friend was involved in some design stuff for the Gfactory. That was on May 27th.
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