Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements

[mershaw2001]

Mershaw can you explain briefly this market versus limit orders thing ? If that is briefly possible.

It appears for the incident in question that the last trade before close - which I assume was at 16:00EST - was as shown currently at $232.50.
But someone's AH trade got picked up at $238 at 16:34EST ! But they were expecting to buy in around $232.50. How come they got stiffed at $238 ?
What should they have done differently ? THNX

In a limit order, you specify the maximum share price you would pay to buy (or minimum share price you would sell). If there is no offer that meets your limit, the transaction will never occur. In a market order, you tell your broker to buy (or sell) at whatever the market is currently asking (or bidding). Market orders always fill immediately, but if no one is asking at a reasonable price (like in after hours when there is very little volume) then your broker will have to buy at a really high price (and screw you) in order to get the order executed. That is why there is no market orders in after hours.

 

[Cal1]

Limit orders are filled a set price or better. E.g. a buy 100 shares at 35 will buy at the first price seen that is $35 or LOWER as that would be better. A sell limit order is done at that price or higher e.g. sell 200 shares at 72 will be filled at the first price the market sees at $72 or higher. Day orders expire at the end of the day while Good Till Cancelled (GTC's) can sit around for months. GTC's are usually filled before day orders. Stop orders are completely different animal.

 

[mdemetri]

So can anyone explain what a 'limit/debit' vs a 'limit/credit' order is when doing a two legged option order?

(PS - I am a first time poster here, but I have been following this thread for months and am up >50% since I invested in Tesla options shortly after the May 8 ER. Many thanks to all here as, I have learned a ton. I have owned my Model S P85 since March '13 and been a regular contributor to Tesla's forum since that time. I have kicked myself for well over a year for not investing in Tesla over a year ago, but finally took the plunge with the drop after the May 8 ER).

 

[Gerardf]

I am very curious if Tesla will indeed release some GigaFactory update and 'first ground-breaking in June' as more-or-less promised early May.

The market might not like any delay in that, and I was hoping to see some nice push in the stock as a result of that news. We are quickly running out of time left in this month.

 

[green1]

I always though ground breaking in June was just insanely optimistic. NOTHING moves at that speed when it comes to construction, and Tesla has a lousy track record with dates anyway. I too worry how the market is going to react to the lack of news (though I hope they are as realistic as we are and won't punish the stock too much). I do still expect a pop when it does finally get announced (6 months?)

 

[AlMc]

I always though ground breaking in June was just insanely optimistic. NOTHING moves at that speed when it comes to construction, and Tesla has a lousy track record with dates anyway. I too worry how the market is going to react to the lack of news (though I hope they are as realistic as we are and won't punish the stock too much). I do still expect a pop when it does finally get announced (6 months?)

Six months is a bit long even by TM standards. I suspect if no announcement before the Q2 ER, then there will be an announcement with the ER call.

 

[sleepyhead]

So can anyone explain what a 'limit/debit' vs a 'limit/credit' order is when doing a two legged option order?

(PS - I am a first time poster here, but I have been following this thread for months and am up >50% since I invested in Tesla options shortly after the May 8 ER. Many thanks to all here as, I have learned a ton. I have owned my Model S P85 since March '13 and been a regular contributor to Tesla's forum since that time. I have kicked myself for well over a year for not investing in Tesla over a year ago, but finally took the plunge with the drop after the May 8 ER).

Limit debit means that you will be paying cash for the trade. I.e. if you put in a limit/debit order for 0.10, it means you are willing to pay up to 0.10

Limit credit order means that you will be collecting cash for the trade. I.e. if you put in a limit/credit order for 0.10, it means you are willing to collect no less than 0.10

 

[austinEV]

I always though ground breaking in June was just insanely optimistic. NOTHING moves at that speed when it comes to construction, and Tesla has a lousy track record with dates anyway. I too worry how the market is going to react to the lack of news (though I hope they are as realistic as we are and won't punish the stock too much). I do still expect a pop when it does finally get announced (6 months?)

I don't think the market has priced in a June announcement. As you say, nothing moves at that speed. And I hear bluster about groundbreaking as a negotiation tactic with the candidate sites only, and I think people get that. Recent stock enthusiasm is driven by:

1) momo stock crowd ascendant again
2) model X excitement
3) the patent move, which paradoxically emphasizes that TM has the EV market cornered. See morgan stanley note.
4) run up to 2H output increases. New factory capacity, and TM's own guidance has the second half increasing run rates. Could be a pop sometime with Q2 investor letter or Q3 investor letter, or somewhere in between. Don't want to be out of TSLA for that.

 

[green1]

Six months is a bit long even by TM standards. I suspect if no announcement before the Q2 ER, then there will be an announcement with the ER call.

Going from not even picking a site, to having shovels in the ground for a major construction project usually takes a year or more. 6 months is a very short time frame.

 

[techmaven]

It doesn't have to be moving substantial quantities of dirt, it could just be an announcement of first site selection, maybe a PR event at the site.

 

[maoing]

and Tesla has a lousy track record with dates anyway.

I listened to Q1 ER conference call, I think Elon confirmed the June ground breaking several times. It's not good to miss the date for such a "focused" project. Aren't we counting on TM's perfect execution?

 

[green1]

He also confirmed Model S delivery at least a year before it happened, and Model X delivery in 2013, and Canadian superchargers in 2013, and the list goes on and on. Tesla does fulfill it's promises, but never on time.

 

[InTheShadows]

Going from not even picking a site, to having shovels in the ground for a major construction project usually takes a year or more. 6 months is a very short time frame.

You can't say that. We have no idea how much preliminary work they have done. If they have full factory design done and their site needs are done it's just a matter of finding a site and taking their preliminary designs to the planning commission.

The reason he is doing it this way is he wants to see where he can get permitting done the quickest.

6500 jobs into a region is huge and should motivate any planning commission to clear the path and expedite the project.

 

[green1]

Government bureaucracies simply don't move at that speed. regardless of incentives. There's also not insignificant site specific planning involved in these sorts of projects, everything from type of soil, levelness of the land, to which side the road/railway/power lines/water pipes/etc are on all affect some of the planning. If they do it in 6 months it will still be a record setting pace. I get that Elon likes to push timelines, but some things just aren't in his control. If his track record of predicting dates was better I might believe he'd found some ways around this, but his track record in this department is absolutely atrocious, I don't see any reason to believe this time will be any different.

 

[dalalsid]

Government bureaucracies simply don't move at that speed. regardless of incentives. There's also not insignificant site specific planning involved in these sorts of projects, everything from type of soil, levelness of the land, to which side the road/railway/power lines/water pipes/etc are on all affect some of the planning. If they do it in 6 months it will still be a record setting pace. I get that Elon likes to push timelines, but some things just aren't in his control. If his track record of predicting dates was better I might believe he'd found some ways around this, but his track record in this department is absolutely atrocious, I don't see any reason to believe this time will be any different.

All I hope for is that they have picked at least one site in all the states and acquired the land in at least one state by the end of this month. I don't really care if there is construction equipment on the ground or not. I would also like the Gen III not to slip beyond mid-2018 (for me more than for my investment)

- - - Updated - - -

Government bureaucracies simply don't move at that speed. regardless of incentives. There's also not insignificant site specific planning involved in these sorts of projects, everything from type of soil, levelness of the land, to which side the road/railway/power lines/water pipes/etc are on all affect some of the planning. If they do it in 6 months it will still be a record setting pace. I get that Elon likes to push timelines, but some things just aren't in his control. If his track record of predicting dates was better I might believe he'd found some ways around this, but his track record in this department is absolutely atrocious, I don't see any reason to believe this time will be any different.

All I hope for is that they have picked at least one site in all the states and acquired the land in at least one state by the end of this month. I don't really care if there is construction equipment on the ground or not. I would also like the Gen III not to slip beyond mid-2018 (for me more than for my investment)

 

[austinEV]

It seems there are lots of adequate victory conditions for "hitting June". I think if they just announced the site and said permitting was in process that would suffice.

 

[AlMc]

It seems there are lots of adequate victory conditions for "hitting June". I think if they just announced the site and said permitting was in process that would suffice.

THAT.....is all I hope by Q2ER as it certainly will be a question, mabe the first question, on the ER conference call

 

[chickensevil]

All after hours trades have to go in as limit orders, you can't market order the after hours.

Sorry, thank you for the correction, I guess the comments about it being a late posted trade makes the most sense then...

@AustinEV

This is a fantastic idea that I think I would love to also help try to contribute to. Because I know as I get into many different discussions about the stock it seems to me that it is hard to recall what has been officially stated, what has been "heard around the rumor mill" (He said/She said), and what was just a really great hypothesis from some forum member that makes a lot of sense for how something is going.

As much as I am really in love with the company, I really do like to only present facts as facts and list everything else as opinion, because it really makes me mad when I see other people being negative about the company and then making some off base comment as if it were fact, and yet nothing like that had ever been stated. So having a nice library as it were, would be really helpful!

The other things see really useful as well, for those who are new to the company and the stock. So anything I can do to help, I am there!

 

[green1]

It seems there are lots of adequate victory conditions for "hitting June". I think if they just announced the site and said permitting was in process that would suffice.

And here I agree... I also don't think it's likely in the next few days, but a site announcement in the next few weeks is possible. (again I think they over-promised a bit on this, but they could announce a site (not "break ground") in only a couple months.)

 

[Curt Renz]

And here I agree... I also don't think it's likely in the next few days, but a site announcement in the next few weeks is possible. (again I think they over-promised a bit on this, but they could announce a site (not "break ground") in only a couple months.)

During the conference call on May 7, a questioner asked when ground would be broken on a Gigafactory. Musk answered in a less than firm tone, "...probably next month." I didn't take that to be a promised deadline. He said another ground breaking could occur about a month later, but the decision on which site would actually contain the first Gigafactory would not be made until later this year. He said there will be multiple ground breaks so as to not delay the completion of the first Gigafactory. He said that any delay would be far more costly than having to break ground several times.