I'm feeling lucky -- trimmed some speculative shares (i.e., non-core holdings) at $202.50. Not quite the tippy-top, but close enough. Now, just need to time redeploying that capital back in.
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Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements
- Thread starter Jonathan Hewitt
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InTheShadows
Active Member
Are you thinking of options or common?
After i rearranged my deep itm feb and march options first thing this am I almost bought 195 strike weeklies this am when the stock was in the 193's but didn't. I had some work I had to get done and figured I wouldn't be missing out on much because I didn't think it would get above 198 (which was break even) today. I haven't even looked to see what they are worth now. IMO when I don't buy something I was thinking of buying and it runs up like this it's just better to put my head in the sand and not look.
I'm glad I rearranged this am though. Going from deep itm to slightly otm on a no reason pullback is great.
Probably long-dated call / LEAPS, and probably not until after the earnings call. The IV is placing a huge premium on calls right now that I expect will moderate after the ER. Of course, I may be missing out on some big upside after the ER, but I still have a substantial long position. I'm happy to hear clever ideas from others, though.
Scream "Tesla f*re" outside CNBC's studios within earshot of Rick Santelli, give him a case of 5-hour energy drinks, pick up some calls before he knows what happened?
Other than that, IV's going to crush any potential bargains in call options before ER, I think. I've been hunting but not finding anything attractive.
InTheShadows
Active Member
I haven't done anything further out than march lately the iv is way too high right now. I'm planning on selling half my near term before the ER if we go much higher than this. If we don't then just selling 1/4. Then after the iv collapses the next day I want to move most of my short term to long term. I hope that's a good strategy. I'm still a noob at options so we shall see.
I sold 1/3 of my Feb22 165s and 170s today when we topped $202. That was my break even point. I will be watching pre ER, if we spike up to over 206 (arbitrary number) before ER 1/3 more will go. I have no basis for this plan. But I am someone that has to have a plan.
I have several deep ITM Jan15 LEAPS and my core stock holding that I plan on keeping unless a very negative catalyst occurs.
InTheShadows
Active Member
That's pretty funny. I am very goal oriented but I force myself to not set hard number goals with my stock investments. I only have one goal and that is to keep the trend going up. If I set a hard number goal and start to fall short of it I'm afraid I would get too aggressive (I'm already extremely aggressive) to try and obtain it and start taking unnecessary risk to get there.
We just watched a movie on netflix last night called "the brass teapot", the psychological progression that takes over the couple is interesting and could easily apply to stock market trading.
I'm not selling any leaps either, they too are my core tsla holding, especially the deep in the money ones. I'm hoping to significantly increase my leap position in the next two weeks.
I offloaded my Feb 28 192.50's end of day today. Still holding multi strike ITM LEAPS and Mar 22 175's in the tax-free account. My justification today? I could walk away with nearly 100% now, or hang for 200% ...or 0% in a week. I just have no idea how things are going to play up to earnings, but I'll at least have some capital to deploy on a dip.
Besides, I need to do my taxes and I think the government is going to be looking for some money from me
Besides, I need to do my taxes and I think the government is going to be looking for some money from me
InTheShadows
Active Member
Besides, I need to do my taxes and I think the government is going to be looking for some money from me
That's why I installed more solar last year and bought the best car in the world. Well that was one of the reasons. The main reason is because both are the right thing to do.
I've sold all my options and instead bought some long term shares for my core position. If earnings is a blowout I think it's possible we could never be less then 200 again so I wanted to take advantage of getting shares at this price. I'm going to wait to buy calls till after earnings because as everyone has noticed they are just really expensive. I made a killing this past week so I am in no rush to gamble it all away on an earnings that could really go either way. I am going into earnings fairly conservatively, though I would like to see a blowout report or else we may be stuck below 200 for a while.
InTheShadows
Active Member
So is anyone else thinking we might get a massive dip and rebound tomorrow? I might try and time the bottom for a day trade if it looks that way. If I was more experienced I might try to buy a put to catch the drop.
I honestly don't think there will be much of a drop due to this story... the shorts are running out of ammo. Remember the adapter "recall" news that came out after the stock jumped ~$15 after NAIAS? It did basically nothing... if anything it reinforced the superiority of Tesla over how other manufacturers do recalls. This fire didn't have anything to do with the Tesla since it was apparently untouched by the fire (the electrical parts and battery anyway)... it could have been faulty wiring, arson, or maybe the ICE that was parked next to it.
My first profit taking in TSLA: this morning I sold covered calls on all of my TSLA shares acquired in March 2013, that is about half of my TSLA shares.
The calls are Mar21st 2014, strike 250. I picked the call date that takes me out of short term capital gains in case I have to surrender the shares and strike that will likely leave me with intact TSLA share ownership post March 2014, as I am still very bullish TSLA for 2014.
It felt much riskier becoming TSLA long one year ago than it feels now. I guess the reward is commensurate with the risk.
Ah, I should say thanks, so thank you TMC contributors, Elon and John Broder!:tongue:
The calls are Mar21st 2014, strike 250. I picked the call date that takes me out of short term capital gains in case I have to surrender the shares and strike that will likely leave me with intact TSLA share ownership post March 2014, as I am still very bullish TSLA for 2014.
It felt much riskier becoming TSLA long one year ago than it feels now. I guess the reward is commensurate with the risk.
Ah, I should say thanks, so thank you TMC contributors, Elon and John Broder!:tongue:
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RationalOptimist
Member
The fact that Tesla offered to cover costs, and that the owner refused are both a little puzzling. The former implies either a ridiculous level of customer service... or some sense of possibly contributing to the problem. The latter could be any of. "No, don't be silly, it's my fault. No, you've already done enough for me, and by the way, the car is awesome. No, there was minimal damage. Or, more ominously, No way, Jose, I'll see you in court. Or: No way, I'm not going to be bought off, I'm going to the media with this."
Would love to know the full story. Until there's a little more clarity, I'm guessing we'll be off $10+ tomorrow. (and I hereby rename myself Irrational Pessimist.)
Would love to know the full story. Until there's a little more clarity, I'm guessing we'll be off $10+ tomorrow. (and I hereby rename myself Irrational Pessimist.)
InTheShadows
Active Member
The thing is though, it has already been repeated once and the general public is not going to call to confirm it like people here have. And people tend to panic quickly. I do agree with you though and it's obvious that the article is very poorly written. It's just that some people might panic and cascading through some tight stops could happen.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
I'm expecting a small dive tomorrow, but this could go either way, since the news articles state that the battery and charging systems were not touched by the flre.
It's possible... but the nice thing about the timing of this is that investors can read the details of the story for themselves and make their own conclusions, whereas if it were in the middle of the day, they might just stop at the headlines.
It's entirely possible that we have here a case of a decent, intelligent human being (shocking!) who has refused to request damages for an incident he is certain had nothing to do with the awesome Tesla Model S in his garage, and therefore doesn't want to take unfair advantage of the generosity of Elon, Jerome and crew. Just my current theory.
Don't get me wrong, I'll be more than happy to snap up some cheap calls tomorrow if I get the chance, but so far in AH trading this looks like the non-event it is.
I've never done puts either. However, I expect a small drop but remember that the 'shorts' are going to give the stock support because they see that 200 is not far off and they know that the ER and Guidance will be positive. In addition, there are many TSLA longs that will stay the course and buy more as the shorts and TM has put more cash in our pockets to buy more shares. I sold 1/3 of my shares with the first 'problem' and all shares with the 'third'. Bought back near the bottom. I will not sell shares this time. I am confident that merely putting the words Tesla and fire in the same article will not result in a big dip...and if it does I will be buying this time, not selling. I believe this is the sentiment of many here.
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