Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements

[pz1975]

Max profit point is lower but the max pain point is higher in your version. Probably a wash overall. Thanks for the insight. I have started trying these sorts of non-delayed spreads the last few weeks and they seem to do well without the stress of naked options.

 

[ckessel]

So, at what point do even the most optimistic of us thing the stock has hit it's limit for the time being? We're nearly 1/2 the market cap of Ford and GM. We can extrapolate some really high values with the assumptions of Gen3, but all assumptions have some counter due to the risk.

 

[mershaw2001]

I think that using the market cap for these other car companies is incorrect so it's not fair to say "two teslas make up a gm but they have 1/1000000th of the production" (as a recent article said). These car companies are the epitome of how to run the business wrong. "let's add middlemen to take 10% of our profit". "let's make buying stressful!". "Let's make service terrible!". "let's keep pension plans". Etc.

I believe the stock has stabilized at 210 and will now proceed upward, mostly because the short float is so high. I think we're closer to 40% short show, and I think that we now need to spark that movement upward. Tesla is firing on all cylinders and I think that 280 or 300 would begin to be seen as overvalued and force a downward correction, but 220 is a fair price now. I've done some shorting, and buying to cover on an upward move like this stops being about "is the company at a rational price or irrational" and becomes more of "i'm on the wrong side of this trade and need to get out".

 

[Cameron]

I think this giga-factory announcement is going to be the biggest thing Tesla has ever announced up until this point. Not just because the factory will physically be very large, but also because this is the missing link between Tesla being just a small niche company, and a juggernaut completely changing the world as we know it. I find it amazing you have guys like Mr. Kass shorting this announcement thinking "dilution" is going to scare investors when we are talking about the single most important part of the companies future. That's telling me people are underestimating whats to come, and are in for a rude awakening. I am betting this will be the start of a run to 300.

 

[sleepyhead]

I think this giga-factory announcement is going to be the biggest thing Tesla has ever announced up until this point. Not just because the factory will physically be very large, but also because this is the missing link between Tesla being just a small niche company, and a juggernaut completely changing the world as we know it. I find it amazing you have guys like Mr. Kass shorting this announcement thinking "dilution" is going to scare investors when we are talking about the single most important part of the companies future. That's telling me people are underestimating whats to come, and are in for a rude awakening. I am betting this will be the start of a run to 300.

Even though I think that there might be a small pullback due to dilution (because of people like Kass), I am starting to think exactly like what you wrote in your post.

 

[Robertj]

I agree. Up until now we have had knowledge and support for 50k model S and via Elon at least 50 k of the model X,

Until now the gen 111 has been all talk . We understand the it require primarily a huge drop in battery costs

The Giga factory brings the first signs that this will happen , no longer just a pipe dream.

this could underpin the institutionall buying and send the stock toward $ 350 this year

 

[Lessmog]

I think this giga-factory announcement is going to be the biggest thing Tesla has ever announced up until this point. Not just because the factory will physically be very large, but also because this is the missing link between Tesla being just a small niche company, and a juggernaut completely changing the world as we know it. I find it amazing you have guys like Mr. Kass shorting this announcement thinking "dilution" is going to scare investors when we are talking about the single most important part of the companies future. That's telling me people are underestimating whats to come, and are in for a rude awakening. I am betting this will be the start of a run to 300.

While I agree in principle with your analysis of the company/companies, let's not forget that we on this board are probably an informed minority and the market in general may very well stampede for irrelevant reasons. But I'm pressing my thumbs, as we say, and hope to be able to secure a little profit bit by bit and hold the rest for longer-term, if possible in a more real-time based account. This wild volatility combined with pay-out delays is bad for me.

 

[DaveT]

Short Term TSLA Investor Social Chat

Sold a weekly 225/227.5 bear call spread for a credit of $0.55. This forms an iron condor with my previous Feb28 197.5/200 bull put spread (previous credit of $0.60). New max profit from trade is $1.15 and max pain of $1.35. If TSLA closes this Friday between 200 and 225, I keep all the credit received.

 

[sleepyhead]

Sold a weekly 225/227.5 bear call spread for a credit of $0.55. This forms an iron condor with my previous Feb28 197.5/200 bull put spread (previous credit of $0.60). New max profit from trade is $1.15 and max pain of $1.35. If TSLA closes this Friday between 200 and 225, I keep all the credit received.

With such a big catalyst on the horizon, I would gladly take the opposite end of that trade.

Good luck but I hope TSLA finishes above $230 this week.

 

[DaveT]

Short Term TSLA Investor Social Chat

With such a big catalyst on the horizon, I would gladly take the opposite end of that trade.

Good luck but I hope TSLA finishes above $230 this week.

Just sold another weekly bear call spread 230/232.5 for credit of $0.37 (max pain of $2.17). If TSLA drops in the next couple days to around 210 then I'll try to complete an iron condor by buying a 197.5/200 bull put spread.

 

[sleepyhead]

Picking up nickles in front of a steamroller.

I would wait a couple of weeks for the stock to settle before using such strategies. Too much volatility in the stock right now and not enough IV in options to be going short IV.

Chances are that your iron condors will all finish at max payout, but the risk is not worth the reward.

 

[DaveT]

Short Term TSLA Investor Social Chat

Good luck but I hope TSLA finishes above $230 this week.

I hope TSLA closes this week at $224.99.

 

[sleepyhead]

I hope TSLA closes this week at $224.99.

Been there, done that in January. Too much stress.

Now I am riding unhedged for the most part. The higher TSLA goes, the better for me.

 

[DaveT]

Picking up nickles in front of a steamroller.

I would wait a couple of weeks for the stock to settle before using such strategies. Too much volatility in the stock right now and not enough IV in options to be going short IV.

Chances are that your iron condors will all finish at max payout, but the risk is not worth the reward.

You may be correct but I'm seeing things a bit different. I think we're somewhat range bound this week with the gigafactory/secondary announcement. I think closing this week over $225 is a 25-30% chance and closing over $230 is a 10% chance. Those odds are how I'm viewing it. We'll see what happens.

 

[FluxCap]

Looks like the market might be starting to realize how much value the GigaFactory announcement is going to inject into TSLA. Go March calls, go.

 

[Blurry_Eyed]

Looks like the market might be starting to realize how much value the GigaFactory announcement is going to inject into TSLA. Go March calls, go.

+1 - I also unhedged my positions last week and am letting it ride as I also believe the GigaFactory announcement will stir the pot and have the institutions take a serious look at the stock. Also with Kass jumping up and down about his short position last week, I suspect a lot of shorts who just follow the herd were drawn in over the past couple of days which kept a lid on the stock after earnings. I suspect that herd starting to run out of steam and the momentum will swing back in favor of the bulls, especially if the GigaFactory financing doesn't dilute as the market expects.

 

[sleepyhead]

You may be correct but I'm seeing things a bit different. I think we're somewhat range bound this week with the gigafactory/secondary announcement. I think closing this week over $225 is a 25-30% chance and closing over $230 is a 10% chance. Those odds are how I'm viewing it. We'll see what happens.

Did you edit a post? I swear it said 1.15/3.85 but now it says 1.15/1.35.

That is a big difference and not as bad a play as I was alluding to.

Still think it is a bad idea to be short IV this week.

 

[DaveT]

Short Term TSLA Investor Social Chat

Did you edit a post? I swear it said 1.15/3.85 but now it says 1.15/1.35.

That is a big difference and not as bad a play as I was alluding to.

Still think it is a bad idea to be short IV this week.

Yeah I edited it shortly after posting it since $3.85 was a mistake (I was calculating off of a $5 spread but realized I had $2.5 spreads so the max pain is profit minus $2.5) so it was a $1.15 max profit and $1.35 max pain.

 

[772]

i think this is just TSLA moving with major market indicies that are hitting ATHs today.

 

[sleepyhead]

Yeah I edited it shortly after posting it since $3.85 was a mistake (I was calculating off of a $5 spread but realized I had $2.5 spreads so the max pain is profit minus $2.5) so it was a $1.15 max profit and $1.35 max pain.

That risk/reward profile makes a lot more sense. You are getting over 80% potential return on money at risk. A lot better than before editing, i.e. less than 30%.