-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements
- Thread starter Jonathan Hewitt
- Start date
-
- Tags
- TSLA
I understood that to mean that it's necessary to do the capital raise now in order to complete the GigaFactory in three years. If they're willing to let the gigafactory timeline slide longer, then a capital raise is not necessary.
If I was CEO I would have announced the secondary yesterday, we all kind of expected it back when he first mentioned gigaFactory so no one should be surprised, I simply became suspicious when he quickly agreed with the analyst & pronounced the potential secondary.
There's no question about a capital raise, but the big question is to what degree and WHEN. We'll know more next week. What's interesting is I think that's why the Apple meeting took place. Between Samsung, Panasonic, Apple, etc. these guys are all heavily reliant on Li-on tech. There could be a secondary, but Elon also said he doesn't like share price distracting daily operations.
I call today a sucklessful day.
I call today a sucklessful day.
I can think of at least four reasons he did not/would not:
1. He has not lined up/signed up the partner's yet.
2. He would like to announce where it will be constructed and has not lined up the space.
3. SCTY is one of the partners and he did not want to release until after their ER next week.
4. He used the 'non announcement announcement' during the ER call to leverage either the potential partners or sites to, as someone else said, 'get on board because the train is leaving'.
I am still suspicious that Apple may be a player/potential player in this Gigafactory
He didn't mean it's necessary to raise capital within three years. What he meant is that TSLA will need to raise capital at some point if they want to finish their gigafactory within three years. This raise would be soon, then, because they need the money before they start the project, not after. If they aren't in a hurry and don't mind taking more than 3 years to make the factory, then they could just use their own cash generated from sale of cars to fund it over time. But what he meant is that TSLA won't have enough cash from their business operations to finish the factory in that timeline, and that they would need to raise cash otherwise. Last call he talked about taking on a partner, this call he talked about capital raise. So it'll be one or both of those things.
____________
And since it seems everyone else already said that, I just wanted to get on here and talk about how happy I am about the ER move. Obviously it would have been nice to go to 250 or something insane, but I expected a move of about 5% either direction (probably up) after ER (because the best news was preannounced), and thought premiums were too high given that the move wouldn't be that huge. So we're sitting here at 210 over a previous ATH of 206 or so and 8% up after yesterday's close, and the best call trade could have made about 50% from yesterday today (more if sold in the morning, but I'm never awake at open). So it turns out the idea of a bull put spread was pretty much the perfect trade and made me a bunch of money. Had I gone a little wider with the spread (I went 170/185 so wide enough) or maybe sold it a bit closer I could have made more, but I thought that was optimal given the potential for a 5% swing either direction, and made more money than naked puts would because I didn't need as much margin for this so I could sell 15 contracts instead of 1 or whatever. Feels really good to make exactly the right trade for the right reasons. And glad DaveT chimed in to tell me it was a good idea when I mentioned it a week ago...hope some other people could benefit from it too
Last edited:
Although TSLA was up $16 today, I feel the reaction has been relatively muted, especially considering the stock was down $10 yesterday pre-ER release. While the street seemed to like the numbers and outlook, I'm assuming the capital raise has people waiting for more details. Really, we are only up like $6 (or <3%) from where we were Tuesday. I didn't play the weeklies big because the premiums were so high and I didn't expect a lot of surprising info... I only bought 1 Feb 28 $225 contract yesterday.. rest are in Jan '15 $300/$350/$385 LEAPs (which were rolled up from Jan '15 $150s). If we had held the the gains from AH around $215 or $220, I would have been more confident about a short squeeze over the next few days. It could still happen of course, but less likely now IMO. If anything, the shorts will be adding to their positions, not covering yet.
I really expect the shorts to start beating their drums again over the capital raise for the gigafactory once it's announced. We may get another nice buying opportunity if that happens. For now, I'm just sitting on the way OTM LEAPS and some cash available to buy more following any secondary offering. The secondary should really only be a one-time dip, if that... I still expect Tesla to smash their expectations this year with ease (and hopefully TSLA will let me pay for our Model X).
I really expect the shorts to start beating their drums again over the capital raise for the gigafactory once it's announced. We may get another nice buying opportunity if that happens. For now, I'm just sitting on the way OTM LEAPS and some cash available to buy more following any secondary offering. The secondary should really only be a one-time dip, if that... I still expect Tesla to smash their expectations this year with ease (and hopefully TSLA will let me pay for our Model X).
He didn't mean it's necessary to raise capital within three years. What he meant is that TSLA will need to raise capital at some point if they want to finish their gigafactory within three years. This raise would be soon, then, because they need the money before they start the project, not after. If they aren't in a hurry and don't mind taking more than 3 years to make the factory, then they could just use their own cash generated from sale of cars to fund it over time. But what he meant is that TSLA won't have enough cash from their business operations to finish the factory in that timeline, and that they would need to raise cash otherwise. Last call he talked about taking on a partner, this call he talked about capital raise. So it'll be one or both of those things.
____________
And since it seems everyone else already said that, I just wanted to get on here and talk about how happy I am about the ER move. Obviously it would have been nice to go to 250 or something insane, but I expected a move of about 5% either direction (probably up) after ER (because the best news was preannounced), and thought premiums were too high given that the move wouldn't be that huge. So we're sitting here at 210 over a previous ATH of 206 or so and 8% up after yesterday's close, and the best call trade could have made about 50% from yesterday today (more if sold in the morning, but I'm never awake at open). So it turns out the idea of a bull put spread was pretty much the perfect trade and made me a bunch of money. Had I gone a little wider with the spread (I went 170/185 so wide enough) or maybe sold it a bit closer I could have made more, but I thought that was optimal given the potential for a 5% swing either direction, and made more money than naked puts would because I didn't need as much margin for this so I could sell 15 contracts instead of 1 or whatever. Feels really good to make exactly the right trade for the right reasons. And glad DaveT chimed in to tell me it was a good idea when I mentioned it a week ago...hope some other people could benefit from it too
Yea I think this is my lesson from this ER. When IV is really high bull put/call spreads are much better. Best time for calls is when stock has settled down for a while like we did in the 150's and 140's before the 6900 deliveries announcement. Return on those calls were insane. Lesson learned
Has anyone else noticed the Porsche 911 fire recall notice? Porsche warning: 911 GT3s can catch fire
They asked all drivers to immediately stop driving the 2014 911 GT3
Porsche stock closed today down ~1.5%
They asked all drivers to immediately stop driving the 2014 911 GT3
Porsche stock closed today down ~1.5%
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
I agree. I think the share price is on a steady but not instant upward path, and that this trend will continue as more pieces of good news arrive. The earnings release was just one important event.
Giga-factory
Model X finalization and fully working demos
China sales/delivery
NHTSA report
Ramp up of additional line(s) at the Tesla Factory
All of this stuff will add up… it's going to be a steady stream of bad news for short sellers.
People are silly, they raised their price targets, but trimmed sentiment. It's essentially a signal that there are better opps if you want hyper growth. They are being conservative.
Similar threads
