Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements

[anticitizen13.7]

Or time to catch falling knives .

Investors with a long time horizon should worry less about this, especially given that Tesla is a company with a bright future. I think that people make the mistake of wanting to buy at the absolute bottom, which is hard to predict.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

I think anyone worked about the short term is likely owning investment methods that are shorter term. Even LEAPs become short term in a bear market. So what are peoples protection strategies (and yes I know that those with stocks only can just hold until the rain passes).

 

[Rifleman]

Investors with a long time horizon should worry less about this, especially given that Tesla is a company with a bright future. I think that people make the mistake of wanting to buy at the absolute bottom, which is hard to predict.

This is my view at this point. I have full faith that Tesla is heading in the right direction, and am not so worried about their short term share price. If anything, this is a buying opportunity, not a cause for worry.

 

[marvinat0rz]

Meh. If worst comes to worst, dead LEAPS become a tax deduction for realized gains in shares, and we can buy more if it dips down to ridiculously low levels. I'm staying put for the time being, but might buy more common stock if we go down to $170 or something. Sure glad I hedged after the run-up, though.

 

[sahanim]

I grabbed my LEAPS and some 220 and 240 Sept calls what turns out to be a little early:frown:. But I guess I have myself set up for a possible Q1 and Q2 ER surge with the Sept calls.....well at least that is what I hope. Good luck to all in these turbulent times!

im in the same boat as you. I bought some sept calls a couple days ago when the price was hovering around 207-210. I expected more resistance at 200 and did not think we would get to it so quickly(if at all). Either way, september should be more than enough time for tesla to shoot off some more fireworks.

 

[techmaven]

The self-rationalization I'm reading is very sad. So far, I'm getting the vibe that if tsla falls, u guys buy more or move into options (insane "rotation" btw). If tsla rises, u guys write eachother poems, buy sleepy plane tickets, and have no plans to sell until tsla dominates the world. .... Got it

Well, in the context that many of us here believe in a Tesla long term future where both the sales of it's BEVs and it's stock price are going to rise dramatically, it would be natural for many of us to invest towards that future. The moaning and groaning about short term losses, even if they are dramatic shouldn't detract from the long term picture. For 2020, will it really matter that the stock price went from $265 to $195 if the stock is trading well north of $500? Further, we've been here before. The stock has retreated mightily before and the doubters have been screaming since well under $30.

Maximizing gains with short term trading, however, is still an art and is not for the feint of heart. But none of this short term action changes my long term beliefs.

 

[AnOutsider]

Moderator Note: Some posts have gone over to the land of snippiness. Healthy debate is good. Personal attacks? bad. Let's please try to keep it civil.

 

[TSLAopt]

Moderator Note: Some posts have gone over to the land of snippiness. Healthy debate is good. Personal attacks? bad. Let's please try to keep it civil.

Thanks Moderator.

BrysonDad,
It's ok if you are short or have a short mentality on the stock, healthy debate is good as the Moderator says. Please just be a little more mature about how you express your view instead is sounding like a bratty school kid trying to insult his classmates.
Just because your view is contradictory to most other's view on here about TSLA stock does not mean you have to be defensive in how you express it by condescending others. We are all big boys here and will treat you with respect as long as you treat others respectfully.

we actually want you to voice your contradictory viewpoints, so please do not leave, just argue them politely. Thanks.

 

[SteveG3]

Thanks Moderator.

BrysonDad,
It's ok if you are short or have a short mentality on the stock, healthy debate is good as the Moderator says. Please just be a little more mature about how you express your view instead is sounding like a bratty school kid trying to insult his classmates.
Just because your view is contradictory to most other's view on here about TSLA stock does not mean you have to be defensive in how you express it by condescending others. We are all big boys here and will treat you with respect as long as you treat others respectfully.

we actually want you to voice your contradictory viewpoints, so please do not leave, just argue them politely. Thanks.

agreed. I may have something like unconditional appreciation for TESLA, but drop out the E, and I try for a "Spock"-like approach, all data appreciated, but emotions, uh, what are those?

 

[hummingbird]

Moderator Note: Some posts have gone over to the land of snippiness. Healthy debate is good. Personal attacks? bad. Let's please try to keep it civil.

I was here 5 minutes ago checking things out. I noticed the moderator removed brysondad's post above. I would like to voice that I don't agree with the moderator's action.

The topic of group-think is very relevant to investing. This thread is called "Social Chat Short Term TSLA Movement".

I see brysondad's comments as very relevant to TSLA stock traders. I happen to think he is right pointing out the completely-one-sided tone of this investment forum.

It is obvious to me many of you guys here are just not interested in hearing anything negative about: 1) this business, 2) this stock, and 3) traders of this stock. (BTW, three completely different topics).

brysondad's comment was very much about the psychology of the traders here. IMO his comments are useful and valid. He simply held up an mirror (in the post that was removed.)

p.s. Before you guys attack me further, for the record, I love this company, I drive an EV and love the Model S and the Nissan LEAF, I completely admire Elon Musk. I happen to be long this stock at the moment. You guys may not like me and brysondad because we see this forum from a different light, but I am actually trying to be constructive here on TMC. After all this is an Internet stock forum, brysondad and I could easily just walk away.

I hope my post will not be removed by the moderator for being off topic.

 

[TSLAopt]

I was here 5 minutes ago checking things out. I noticed the moderator removed brysondad's post above. I would like to voice that I don't agree with the moderator's action.

The topic of group-think is very relevant to investing. This thread is called "Social Chat Short Term TSLA Movement".

I see brysondad's comments as very relevant to TSLA stock traders. I happen to think he is right pointing out the completely-one-sided tone of this investment forum.

It is obvious to me many of you guys here are just not interested in hearing anything negative about: 1) this business, 2) this stock, and 3) traders of this stock. (BTW, three completely different topics).

brysondad's comment was very much about the psychology of the traders here. IMO his comments are useful and valid. He simply held up an mirror (in the post that was removed.)

p.s. Before you guys attack me further, for the record, I love this company, I drive an EV and love the Model S and the Nissan LEAF, I completely admire Elon Musk. I happen to be long this stock at the moment. You guys may not like me and brysondad because we see this forum from a different light, but I am actually trying to be constructive here on TMC. After all this is an Internet stock forum, brysondad and I could easily just walk away.

I hope my post will not be removed by the moderator for being off topic.

Thanks for your thoughts Hummingbird/tftf. Why are you long the stock if you think it is over-valued?

 

[hummingbird]

I am not tftf. I never suggested the stock was under valued or over valued. I simply said I am long for the moment.

 

[emupilot]

So TSLA has been finding strong support at 204 even as it's been tested repeatedly. If it does crash through, however, where is the next support level?

 

[TSLAopt]

So TSLA has been finding strong support at 204 even as it's been tested repeatedly. If it does crash through, however, where is the next support level?

Good question. Whenever this 'correction' is over and nasdaq stops dropping (QQQ) and that will be the support level for TSLA I would presume before it marches back upwards as good news starts hitting.

 

[c041v]

Just because your view is contradictory to most other's view on here about TSLA stock does not mean you have to be defensive in how you express it by condescending others. We are all big boys here and will treat you with respect as long as you treat others respectfully.

This.

Insulting those looking at the glass half full adds no value to the discussion. Telling us why it might be half empty is a welcome point of view.

I've read numerous other posts by the user in question and I don't find them to be particularly negative, but they are generally poorly presented and somewhat incindiary.

Back on topic: TA Analysts, how well do the technicals generally hold up under Macro conditions like this?

 

[DaveT]

here are some Spock thoughts to ponder: Elon is rock star CEO, real-life Tony Stark, Steve Jobs incarnate, face of what's right with American capitalism. That's a risk. He is head of 3 Companies... not just any company, but companies with the stated goal of revolutionizing the industry they play in. Running a "traditional" company is hard enough, he's guiding 3 "non-traditional" startups.

Last time I checked, Elon is mortal in terms of time, location, and energy. He admitted himself on 60min that everything nearly came to an end (out of money). So in the spirit of Black Swan thought experiment, if Elon were to re-live his life 100-times, how many times do we end up here? If you were honest with yourself, you quickly realize this is a highly risky position.

Elon's health and well-being is a risk I'm very aware and conscious of. Elon is very aware of this as well (more so than probably any of us) and takes necessary security precautions. He's also still very young, 42 years old, so health risks are lower than if he was 10 or 20 years older. Also, he's not the "head of 3 companies" rather he's CEO of two companies: Tesla and SpaceX. And he's done a remarkable job managing both companies for many years.

Telsa can be homerun beyond anyone's price target, but I contend that the "positive catalysts" folks are mentioning here are misguided.

1. china demand: unknown (speculation is just speculation. You say chinese forums talk up Tsla, I say the same forums say Chinese economy crashed). china charging infrastructure: none, no official plans to roll out supercharger or chinese home/style charging. china leadership/management: starting over after recent exit (no reason given).

2. model x: schedule risk. wing door has historically not been popular on other cars. The gull wing design is a risk. At stores with model x prototypes, do they allow you to play with the gull wing doors? (please inform). Why a wing door? I thought Model S's stated goal was to look like a conventional car (not a prius or leaf)... u think they'd sell less model x if it had a conventional door?

3. gigafactory: simple, costs a lot of money. and far far away. It's like if i ran a bakery, but my flours are all all stored 1-2 states over. Maybe it's just me, but if tesla picks 1 state out of 5 or so states in competition, wont the remaining states retaliate with legislation to prevent tsla from selling? the carrot and stick goes both ways.

4. demand: tsla has not demonstrated demand beyond regions with significant subsidies (california, norway, some east coast cities).

5. supply: a lot of growth stories are supplied constrained. Apple is one of the few that managed supply/demand beautifully (no surprise that Tim Cook the supplychain guy eventually became CEO?). I believe this is why tsla had a fall back in oct-nov 2013, folks had a hard time seeing how demand can be met. Giga factory plan is Tesla's plan to manage the supply/demand curve. However, for a "genius" leader in Elon, I find this "build it myself" plan a little brute force approach. Please remember, unable to meet demand killed a lot of growth stories...

good investing.

The main positive catalyst for this year is Tesla ramping production. They are going from 600 cars/week to 1000 cars/ a week by the end of the year, all while achieving at least 28% gross margin. Model X demand also looks healthier than most anyone has predicted/expected, so 2015 also looks like a very strong year as well. Tesla can likely deliver 40,000 cars this year ($4b revenue) and 70-80,000 cars next year ($7-8b revenue).

 

[ggr]

First let me say that I agree that non-group-think postings are valuable.

1. china demand: unknown (speculation is just speculation. You say chinese forums talk up Tsla, I say the same forums say Chinese economy crashed). china charging infrastructure: none, no official plans to roll out supercharger or chinese home/style charging. china leadership/management: starting over after recent exit (no reason given).

I disagree on this one. It doesn't matter how much China's economy might go down, it still has a huge number of wealthy status-conscious new buyers, and I seriously can't imagine that the introduction of the Model S won't be a huge success. There's execution risk still, I agree, but no demand risk.

2. model x: schedule risk. wing door has historically not been popular on other cars. The gull wing design is a risk. At stores with model x prototypes, do they allow you to play with the gull wing doors? (please inform). Why a wing door? I thought Model S's stated goal was to look like a conventional car (not a prius or leaf)... u think they'd sell less model x if it had a conventional door?

When it's on the road it looks a lot like many other crossovers, just like the Model S looks nice but basically similar to many others. That doesn't mean that it can't/won't be distinctive and high-tech, and the doors are an essential part of that. But I agree that there's execution/schedule risk, and I wouldn't be surprised at a further delay in the Model X, and some teething problems with the door.

3. gigafactory: simple, costs a lot of money. and far far away. It's like if i ran a bakery, but my flours are all all stored 1-2 states over. Maybe it's just me, but if tesla picks 1 state out of 5 or so states in competition, wont the remaining states retaliate with legislation to prevent tsla from selling? the carrot and stick goes both ways.

This is really two things. Being far away is, I think, a non-issue, given that currently the cells come from Japan, and rail transport is very reliable compared to shipping and import. And I work with some bakeries, they rarely have more than a couple of weeks of ingredients to hand.

4. demand: tsla has not demonstrated demand beyond regions with significant subsidies (california, norway, some east coast cities).

I simply disagree with this one. The subsidies have stimulated the initial demand, but there are plenty starting to appear in places without significant or any subsidies.

5. supply: a lot of growth stories are supplied constrained. Apple is one of the few that managed supply/demand beautifully (no surprise that Tim Cook the supplychain guy eventually became CEO?). I believe this is why tsla had a fall back in oct-nov 2013, folks had a hard time seeing how demand can be met. Giga factory plan is Tesla's plan to manage the supply/demand curve. However, for a "genius" leader in Elon, I find this "build it myself" plan a little brute force approach. Please remember, unable to meet demand killed a lot of growth stories...

The reasons for the fall last year didn't have anything to do with supply constraints, unless you count not being able to live up to irrational market expectations as supply constraints. Yes, there's plenty of room for execution risk here. But (and here I am being a groupie) the whole point is that Elon & Co have been meeting and exceeding every expectation in this area for about 5 years.

Yes, I'm long, and somewhat longer today...

 

[Curt Renz]

3. gigafactory: simple, costs a lot of money. and far far away. It's like if i ran a bakery, but my flours are all all stored 1-2 states over. Maybe it's just me, but if tesla picks 1 state out of 5 or so states in competition, wont the remaining states retaliate with legislation to prevent tsla from selling? the carrot and stick goes both ways.

My bet is with a location in Nevada not far from Fremont with a direct rail connection. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs has indicated that Tesla will be building additional automobile and battery factories within four years. Those states that are protectionist on the dealership issue may be wise to reconsider, especially if provided a strong hint by not being awarded the first Gigafactory

 

[techmaven]

Brysondad,

I tried to discuss the role of Elon Musk with Tesla on an earlier Google Hangout, and I'm afraid my remarks might have been interpreted as saying that Elon Musk wasn't important. That's not the case. However, while I don't have inside information at all, I think that Mr. Musk has hired quite a few very capable people to work diligently at Tesla on an every day basis. I see this in the interviews given by Tesla employees of various levels. I see this in the written words by many Tesla engineers and engineering managers. I see this in the resumes of the people that work there. Of course Mr. Musk is still extremely instrumental and Tesla is would not have achieved to this point at this time without him. But on a day by day basis, when nothing big needs to be decided, then no, it is not as crucial. Remember, Mr. Jobs also split time with Pixar and I suspect Mr. Jobs was far more involved at a number of levels at Apple, almost to a detrimental level.

1) The Chinese economy has hardly crashed. Further, the absolute numbers that Tesla wants to sell in China is very small in the context of the overall market. Given where Tesla is right now in production levels, it won't take many sales as a percentage of the overall luxury sedan market in China for Tesla to do quite well. Do you have information that switching from Kingston Chang to Veronica Wu was all that disruptive? Wasn't she already Mr. Chang's boss? It still doesn't follow that this change had anything to do with any soft demand issues.

2) Model X is definitely a risk on a number of levels. However, the pre-order levels are already quite high and these pre-orders were executed with the knowledge of the prototype versions with the falcon door.

3) Given that the cells come from Osaka, Japan right now, you are complaining about them coming from as far away as Texas? Further, the public wants Tesla to be able to sell direct so over time, Tesla is likely to be the winner here.

4) You have no real data about demand other than the fact that customer deposits have been increasing and that Tesla is still production constrained. We will only get a real sense of demand when Tesla is no longer production constrained, which might not come to pass until years after Gen 3. Therefore, this idea that Tesla has not demonstrated demand is nonsensical on the very face of it. Further, we do not know to what extent the subsidies in the U.S. have on buying. Maybe all it does is delay the purchases a bit as people need more cash to buy a Model S. Also, the tax credits in many states are not changing yet, and certainly I bought without a subsidy in my state. The federal tax credit will take quite some time before that is an issue.

5) the first gigafactory is actually not big enough. Panasonic is likely still at full tilt providing cells even when the gigafactory is at full nameplate capacity.

 

[aznt1217]

I've been sitting quietly on the sidelines looking at the past Brysondad's posts, but I think I'll comment now. While I do accept the opposite view and I do think that sometimes we all get carried away when money is falling from the skies and we are pissing champagne a majority of your posts are too troll-like (don't take it as an insult). I say this because a lot of it is pretty much unsubstantiated or structured poorly. Why are you talking about the ability to live 100 times? It makes no sense in the context. Yes, times were tough because the company was at a totally different stage and were coming off a significant amount of failures that required massive overhauls-- which is why he needed to dump a significant amount of resources into both companies. We're past that point and are in ramp up mode where scaling while maintaining quality are important. Both of which the management has acknowledged.

I think a lot of the positive catalyst folks aren't misguided. Let's take your points that you mention. I'm actually one of the few people that doesn't give Elon ALL the credit. You do realize that the company's leader is only as good as his team. That's what he spent his time building. Yes his health is a risk, but this isn't a Steve Jobs scenario. Like DaveT said, he is well aware of this and I'm pretty sure he has a succession plan. It's not a coincidence JB has been accompanying him to events. He's not stupid, he knows it's a lot of work and his delegation skills have improved substantially over time. This is always a risk with any company and it's something that can't be diversified away. Elon AND team are amazing individuals with the chops proven to run a company.

1. China demand. While I am skeptical of the Chinese and some anecdotal stories aren't enough, there's reality that needs to be looked at. Even if the Chinese economy crashed the vast majority of wealthy aren't affected. Income inequality just spikes. I know this for a fact as I know friends in China who are considered the ultra wealthy and were more than happy to drop $400K on a S class. They've seen and driven the Model S here and the product speaks for itself. Also in Hong Kong, there are Roadster owners that were interviewed who clearly want the Model S. It's also the law of large numbers. As you mentioned Tesla is supply constrained so even if Chinese demand was pent up it wouldn't be the worst thing. It's not even speculation. It's going to do well in China, just based on the fact that it has so many wealthy people in it. Google Whenzhou province and you'll see price and charging won't be an issue. It's also in China's best interest to promote green cars. The ultra rich won't be buying Kandi's. I guarantee it and are going to get tired of being ripped off by German car brands-- now that it's out there (they'll still buy them don't get me wrong, but a lot of people will be converting).

Okay, so the GM left? big deal Veronica Wu has been the face of Tesla China anyway. Just because one person leaves doesn't mean that the entire organization breaks down. Peter Rawlinson left Tesla and where are we now?

2. Model X, we know about schedule risk, but we also know there's huge demand. First off, it's not a Gull Wing door. It has been popular on cars, but just on cars that are out of reach and the main reason why it wasn't popular was because of parking. Do you really think that Tesla engineers didn't think of this? Go look at the animation and even the initial reveal of the prototype, the problems are stated. The door has a dual hinge system so it can open unobstructed next to a parked car. Why are you talking about Model S when you are talking about the Falcon Wing? Why would you get to "play" with a prototype? Do other auto manufacturers let you sit in concept cars?

3. Funding for the Gigafactory is complete. This is undisputed, it's just a matter of location selection and seeing plans come to fruition. Why would other states retaliate? If Tesla makes cars it generates sales revenue. If everybody thought like this, then other states should retaliate with other manufacturers picking and closing plants in certain states. Look up Hyundai, Volkswagon, and other manufacturing plants. I get your logic, but it's just flat out wrong.

4. This is a joke right?

5. Supply chain management is one aspect of it, but controlling growth and maintaining quality is more important. The iPhone 1 wasn't exactly high volume, it took time for suppliers to adapt. That and a majority of parts were being sourced from other manufacturers. The Gigafactory is preparation for the 500k volume car. In the near term this shouldn't affect much except potential for more margins on the existing product. The build it myself plan isn't brute force. It makes sense logistically. You need to piece everything together. It's a car with a significant amount of IP that needs to be protected and managed for safety reasons. Being unable to meet demand killed a lot of growth stories? Can you cite some examples. Being able to meet demand without quality control killed a lot of growth stories. Piss poor management killed a lot of growth stories.