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Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements
- Thread starter Jonathan Hewitt
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InTheShadows
Active Member
After watching this earnings and the last one. My new strategy is to buy after earnings.
My play this morning is doing great but it hasn't made up for the hit I took to iv last night. It's getting close though. I got back all I put into my puts with this play but some of my calls are still underwater.
My otm calls I bought this morning are ITM now.
My play this morning is doing great but it hasn't made up for the hit I took to iv last night. It's getting close though. I got back all I put into my puts with this play but some of my calls are still underwater.
My otm calls I bought this morning are ITM now.
Muskol
Member
After watching this earnings and the last one. My new strategy is to buy after earnings.
My play this morning is doing great but it hasn't made up for the hit I took to iv last night. It's getting close though. I got back all I put into my puts with this play but some of my calls are still underwater.
My otm calls I bought this morning are ITM now.
That was a nice move grabbing the calls at the open, congrats, but I would counter your strategy that the stock could've easily gapped up and that opportunity would not have presented itself. Curious to see how Q4 ER pans out in this respect.
chickensevil
Active Member
What I was suggesting was merely to leave SOME capital to play immediately AFTER the market opens. This way if another opportunity like this presents itself you have something to play with. (Although, I guess that issue could be solved with a margin account, right? But some of us choose not to play that way.) Really I shouldn't have touched the options pre-earnings anyway, and knew that this was likely a bad decision... but seeing the price drop yesturday and I couldn't help it. I think if we had a positive macro-market today and if the shorts hadn't driven the price down this morning, things might have panned out better, but overall it was likely very stupid to play the pre-ER market.
But if you are going to, you should probably still leave yourself something for the post-IV crush to really play the extra movement that happens after the market opens, because it has never really sat still and traded flat post ER. So buying something in the morning and selling it in the afternoon would be a good cheap play that assuming you got the direction right would pay out well enough.
It sunk 7% again in the PM, which opens at 4 AM EST, back to yesterday's close, which explains the flat open.
Right. Up 7% in the aftermarket, back to zero in the premarket then up to 6% in the regular session. That deep V hasn't been seen before. Usually the regular session will gap up (on good days) or down (on bad days) and it is too late to get the full range for the reaction to the ER. This one was a bizarre anomoly in that if your timing was excellent, you could have bought shares at yesterdays closing price this morning and had a 5-6% increase in the regular session. Strange.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Tesla Motors expanding facilities in Tilburg for european deliveries.
TM renting a new warehouse in Tilburg to double assembly work to 50km2 in April:
Google Übersetzer
TM renting a new warehouse in Tilburg to double assembly work to 50km2 in April:
Google Übersetzer
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Well, I had the 'tea leaves' right about delivery and production number and the ZEV credits being used to help the EPS this quarter. BUT...I was wrong about sitting on cash and buying a few puts for the ER. So, my core stock holdings, a few last minute 240J16 LEAPS (thanks CitizenT) and calls gave me a 'green' ER but certainly not as green as it could have been.
So, I have bought back some trading shares today but am waiting for J17LEAP release in about 10 days to deploy more.
Anyone see a big movement up in the next 10 days (over $250)? Every prediction I have made in the last 10 days has been A*s backwards!
So, I have bought back some trading shares today but am waiting for J17LEAP release in about 10 days to deploy more.
Anyone see a big movement up in the next 10 days (over $250)? Every prediction I have made in the last 10 days has been A*s backwards!
mershaw2001
I'm short the short sellers
I see a move from 240 through 255, but not further. Many people betting against tesla are trapped and the price will bounce down to 240 and not let them exit, so given 24 or 48 hrs the price will melt up a bit. I don't see much further movement because the results weren't stellar and didn't have any significant surprises. In fact, semi negative but we've flushed all the sellers out in the past 3 weeks.
Timing has gotten increasingly hard. I think it is time to just settle back with shares and have a 5 year timeframe. If it goes to say 800 by 2019 that is a 36% annual return. But, it might be -20% in 2016, then 50%, 50%. Options used to be the easy money but it is getting harder and harder to assume TSLA will take a straight path up, even if you are a bull.
I have 2016 leaps and some March '15 I am holding since I think we are low historically, but if we hit 255-260 I would be temped to close those and go to all shares, and take a 5 year nap.
I have 2016 leaps and some March '15 I am holding since I think we are low historically, but if we hit 255-260 I would be temped to close those and go to all shares, and take a 5 year nap.
Put in an order last night to buy back the top part of my iron condor for 40 cents, it executed at 33 cents just after open. Probably could have done better but ill take it. Just wanted to protect myself from us going over 250 today or tomorrow, which I see as possible. At least, I hope it happens, haha, because i still have 260s for nov22 which aren't worth a lot.
I am tempted to buy weeklies for next week. It seems to be bullish when the price is getting pegged to an option expiration value like today.
I just read this article about Elon Musk's involvement in plans to build large numbers of small communication satellites. The most remarkable thing about it is the comments on Tesla at the bottom - the consensus opinion seems to be that he is just a conman. I can't believe so many people still don't get it - it seems that the WSJ doesn't attract any readers who understand Tesla!
http://online.wsj.com/articles/elon-musks-next-mission-internet-satellites-1415390062
http://online.wsj.com/articles/elon-musks-next-mission-internet-satellites-1415390062
Thumper
Active Member
Chickenlittle
Banned
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