Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements

[chickensevil]

well, I am very glad it went green (signficantly even) in the AH. I was cheering for it as I would a sports team as it tried to find its direction. It was a nailbiter.

Indeed those first 10 minutes after hours the stock was all over the place and it finally settled on a direction to go to and the craziness mellowed out. I think we had about 2 million shares trade hands just in the after hours alone (and we still have about 30 more minutes). The first 10 minutes of trading had more volume than any other point in the day, so it is no wonder the stock was going crazy!

 

[mejojo]

Given the AH price and volume, prediction for tomorrow? Will I wake to lots of big green numbers?

 

[chickensevil]

So now, I am hoping for a good macro-market tomorrow to further increase the upside of TSLA. If we hit 260 tomorrow I will be one happy camper!

Prediction - Closing price in excess of 255

 

[Papafox]

It's worth noting that the predictions made by Adam Jonas and Andrea James both came through:
Jonas- Model X will see an additional delay but it won't spoil the party
James- Tesla may come up short on production during 3Q

I was rather fascinated by Elon's remarks to Jonas regarding totally automated cars. On the one hand, Elon said that Tesla will be at the forefront when such a move is made. On the other, he said that such transportation is unlikely for another 7 to 10 years, with regulatory issues very much something that needs to be addressed. I also got the feeling that Elon recognizes that a good many people enjoy driving their cars (particularly Teslas).

 

[anticitizen13.7]

The shareholder letter is quite funny :biggrin::

In anticipation of this effort, we now expect Model X deliveries to start in Q3 of 2015, a few months later than previously expected. This also is a legitimate criticism of Tesla – we prefer to forgo revenue, rather than bring a product to market that does not delight
customers. Doing so negatively affects the short term, but positively affects the long term. There are many other companies that do
not follow this philosophy that may be a more attractive home for investor capital. Tesla is not going to change.

Although I'm bummed that Model X is delayed, I am very glad to see that Tesla is focusing on the long-term instead of the quarterly. The "invest somewhere else if you don't like it" is great!

 

[emupilot]

So now, I am hoping for a good macro-market tomorrow to further increase the upside of TSLA. If we hit 260 tomorrow I will be one happy camper!

Prediction - Closing price in excess of 255

I'm surprised at the market's reaction so far, since I don't think there was anything in the report to get excited about other than the relief that the report is out so there's no more uncertainty. It will open in the mid-240's tomorrow but not get any upward traction. At some point this week, bears will swoop in and pull it down to the 230's.

 

[Perfectlogic]

Didn't take long for Cory to bash the stock again, he was talking to some analyst and started by saying that Tesla loses money on the cars, the analyst responded that they are indeed making money on the sale of the cars, Cory was just shaking his head, wow. Either he is extremely thick, or he is getting paid to spread FUD. I can't believe reporters are allowed to be that biased, he is actually spreading obvious false information, and it has been going on for a while, Bloomberg really needs to step it up.

 

[aznt1217]

the bloomberg west coverage of the Q3 call with cory johnson is comedic. Definitely enjoyed a good laugh.

 

[Lessmog]

Now the call is over

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I got that, but I don't think Lessmog got that. I think he was thinking I was suggesting that the call was over, which is why I was trying to tell him he shouldn't go to bed yet

Thanks again. I'll find a recording and/or transcript. There was no point listening in on my silence so I went to watch my inner movie. :biggrin:

 

[Auzie]

The shareholder letter is quite funny :biggrin::

In anticipation of this effort, we now expect Model X deliveries to start in Q3 of 2015, a few months later than previously expected. This also is a legitimate criticism of Tesla – we prefer to forgo revenue, rather than bring a product to market that does not delight
customers. Doing so negatively affects the short term, but positively affects the long term. There are many other companies that do
not follow this philosophy that may be a more attractive home for investor capital. Tesla is not going to change.

Although I'm bummed that Model X is delayed, I am very glad to see that Tesla is focusing on the long-term instead of the quarterly. The "invest somewhere else if you don't like it" is great!

Ah my favourite part, how sweet to be able to do that. Tesla is not dancing to anyone's tyne, that's the attitude

There is a serious business rationale behind such attitude. Cars can kill their owners and others (example GM) so it makes business sense to perfect the product before bringing it to market. It is far more expensive to correct mistakes, even only cosmetic ones, once the car is in production. Much easier and cheaper to do it pre production. Brand damage can be irreparable if product is released before being ready. For a car maker, brand damage translates directly into revenue loss. That translates into sp drop.

 

[Robert.Boston]

Pre-market trading is puzzling; first up solidly, now about flat to yesterday's close. If this weakness persists into the trading day, it might be a good buying opportunity. I liked the long term messages in the letter and call, and I didn't see anything in the short-term results that suggests they can't achieve the long-term goals. As an investor, that's all that I really care about. This past quarter's EPS? Not meaningful to me.

 

[uselesslogin]

Pre-market trading is puzzling; first up solidly, now about flat to yesterday's close. If this weakness persists into the trading day, it might be a good buying opportunity. I liked the long term messages in the letter and call, and I didn't see anything in the short-term results that suggests they can't achieve the long-term goals. As an investor, that's all that I really care about. This past quarter's EPS? Not meaningful to me.

To me it looks desperate like someone is short and trying to push it down so they can cover their position. It could be an interesting day. I could also be imagining things.

 

[aznt1217]

Short interest is still pretty high given what we know is in the pipe so I don't think you are imagining things.

 

[chickensevil]

The good news with premarket being all over the place won't that play into volatility a bit and keep it high? I mean sure we had an ER and there was a lot of information given... but the news was a bit all over the place. Some positive and some negative so it could really keep the IV high (I mean not as high as before the ER, but certainly not a full on collapse... right?)

 

[AlMc]

The next two days will be interesting as the whole market digests the ER/CC. There may be some big money that wants to see the price abouit $230 so that all those big prices on the Nov 7 options are collected by someone else other than all of us.

 

[InTheShadows]

Sold my puts for scrap.

Bought a bunch of otm and way otm weeklies with the scrap money from the puts about 3-5 mins after open and the IV collapsed.

The first set I bought is up 90% already and the other set is up 20%

 

[Johan]

Sold my puts for scrap.

Bought a bunch of otm and way otm weeklies with the scrap money from the puts about 3-5 mins after open and the IV collapsed.

The first set I bought is up 90% already and the other set is up 20%

Great move!!!

There is upwards pressure and I bet we might go above 250 today... Or maybe I'm just being overly optimistic.

 

[FluxCap]

Great move!!!

There is upwards pressure and I bet we might go above 250 today... Or maybe I'm just being overly optimistic.

255 close is my guess.

 

[chickensevil]

Well, my position looked like total crap this morning... haha! I was like... well there goes all my play money it was fun while it lasted... and I just committed to holding through since there was no point in selling off my weeklies for pennies. Needless to say I am glad I am still holding on. Looks like the short attack has failed in spectacular fashion and the stock is just climbing! I might pull my weeklies not just back to break even but actually make some money when this is overwith.

Man, this is such a volatile stock!!!

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Oh and my lesson learned is always keep a little cash for post earnings... I wish I could have had some money to play like you Johan Sadly all my capital was officially tied up at the end of yesturday.

 

[Johan]

Only had 10% of my trading cash left this morning but the weeklies I was able to snag at the open sure look green now.