Solar PV News

[SageBrush]

Residential solar power purchasing tipping points found

Researchers have looked at historical buying patterns across multiple countries and U.S. states, and found that starting near $1,000/kW of net present value broader uptake of residential solar begins, at $3,000/kw the market is really overheating, and at $7,000/kW it’s projected that 50% of viable home owners would be financially motivated to adopt solar power.

My financial acumen is not up to this task.
What numbers did the authors use for financing and grid cost increases ?

One bit of translation though: a $1,000/kW savings works out to be ~ 2 cents a kWh cheaper than the utility in REAL (inflation adjusted) money.

 

[mspohr]

My financial acumen is not up to this task.
What numbers did the authors use for financing and grid cost increases ?

One bit of translation though: a $1,000/kW savings works out to be ~ 2 cents a kWh cheaper than the utility in REAL (inflation adjusted) money.

I just ran NPV for my first 5 year old (expensive) system using 5% discount rate and 5% increase in electricity price per year.
Came out at about $4000/kw
My newer much cheaper DIY system came out to $9,000/kW

 

[SageBrush]

I just ran NPV for my first 5 year old (expensive) system using 5% discount rate and 5% increase in electricity price per year.

Meaning a discount rate of zero, correct ?

 

[mspohr]

Meaning a discount rate of zero, correct ?

Yes, net zero. YMMV

 

[SageBrush]

Yes, net zero. YMMV

I like to imagine that a low risk investment returns 1-2% more than inflation, although I do not know how to value the lack of liquidity that a PV investment implies. The numbers will look much better when residential PV is properly valued by the mortgage and home equity players.

Do you agree with this calc ?
50 kWh lifetime per watt installed
1.015^30 = 1.56x time value

Then if installed cost is C pennies per watt then the NPV cost per kWh is 1.56C/50.
Example: if installed cost is $2/watt then Real PV per kWh cost is 6.24 cents a kWh

I find this calc more approachable because it lets me compare my Real cost of kWh by PV to the utility charge.

 

[mspohr]

I like to imagine that a low risk investment returns 1-2% more than inflation, although I do not know how to value the lack of liquidity that a PV investment implies. The numbers will look much better when residential PV is properly valued by the mortgage and home equity players.

Do you agree with this calc ?
50 kWh lifetime per watt installed
1.015^30 = 1.56x time value

Then if installed cost is C pennies per watt then the NPV cost per kWh is 1.56C/50.
Example: if installed cost is $2/watt then Real PV per kWh cost is 6.24 cents a kWh

I find this calc more approachable because it lets me compare my Real cost of kWh by PV to the utility charge.

I do agree with your calc and think it is a more appropriate way to think about solar investment. This is the calc I have done in the past.
I was trying to reproduce the methodology of the paper (which unfortunately is behind a scumbag Elsevier paywall).
I used 5% discount rate and 5% increase in electricity price as guesses. This lets your investment keep up with inflation. However, you are still getting annual returns on your investment.

 

[mspohr]

Commentary: Why microgrids are key to solving energy poverty worldwide

When electricity enters a community, everything changes. Families can light their homes, charge their cell phones, and power appliances that save hours of household chores each day. Communities enjoy modern health care services and education, and streetlights increase safety for women and girls.

Farmers increase their crop yields with irrigation, protect their crop value with cold storage, or increase their returns through postharvest processing. Small businesses can grow and hire new workers, connecting into increasingly integrated supply chains and markets at home and around the world. Indeed, electricity is the foundation on which modern businesses run and thrive.

When such gains happen at scale, the economic benefits multiply and lift up communities, regions, and countries. This is what ending energy poverty means—and why we believe ending energy poverty is core to ending poverty itself in the 21st century.

Extending the existing grid is of course another way to address energy poverty, although that expansion takes time and is often not cost effective, especially in rural areas where most of the world’s unelectrified population lives. A typical microgrid, on the other hand, can be up and running in as little as two months. It can power a small village or an entire town, and serve a wide range of customers, including households, businesses, and public institutions such as health care clinics and schools.

 

[Merrill]

I think microgrids are the key where I live, get rid of Pacific Graft and Extortion have smaller areas to cover and maintain.

 

[mspohr]

Tinder, except for solar and sheep

in 2018, it was found that sheep grazing services on the east coast of the U.S. and in New York range from $308 to $555 per acre. These values were far below the reported average of $868 per acre per year for traditional vegetation management.

 

[mspohr]

https://www.ozy.com/news-and-politi...b268f42ffb7edfa8e855321c19b73645&utm_term=OZY

Yet the district is an exemplar of a larger pattern that’s redefining how American schools respond to climate change. From Nevada to New York City, Arizona to Hawaii, a growing number of school districts are investing in solar microgrids. But it’s California that’s driving this move, at a time the state finds itself repeatedly singed by wildfires.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

The Pros and Cons of the World’s Biggest Solar Park


Problems and solutions related to solar.
More mention of sheep.
Maybe PV could be an effective carbon offset for lamb.

 

[mspohr]

Interesting approach to long term solar energy storage
Solving seasonal storage with aluminum cycling

The process, described in the paper Seasonal energy storage in aluminium for 100 percent solar heat and electricity supply, published in Energy Conversion and Management, ‘charges’ by using electricity to convert aluminum oxide or aluminum hydroxide into elemental aluminum. The aluminum, which can be stored safely for any period of time, is discharged by oxidizing it to release hydrogen, heat and aluminum oxide.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Interesting approach to long term solar energy storage
Solving seasonal storage with aluminum cycling

The process, described in the paper Seasonal energy storage in aluminium for 100 percent solar heat and electricity supply, published in Energy Conversion and Management, ‘charges’ by using electricity to convert aluminum oxide or aluminum hydroxide into elemental aluminum. The aluminum, which can be stored safely for any period of time, is discharged by oxidizing it to release hydrogen, heat and aluminum oxide.

Basically, it's using a rechargeable metal air or metal hydroxide battery.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Qatar’s 800 MW tender draws world record solar power price of $0.01567/kWh

A tender isn't certain to be deployed, but it follows a winning tender last year in Portugal under 1.7c/Kwh.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

'Solar honey' emerging as a win-win for clean-energy proponents, beekeepers and farm owners

More agrivoltaics.

Sweeeeet.

 

[mblakele]

Vietnam grapples with an unexpected surge in solar power
The energy-hungry country may need fewer coal-fired plants than it thought

Solar power played almost no part in Vietnam’s energy mix in 2017. To speed the technology’s adoption, the government offered that year to pay suppliers a generous $0.09 for every kilowatt-hour produced by big solar farms, but only if they started operations within the following two years. It expected some 850mw of capacity to be installed. Instead, by the end of 2019 the country found itself with 5 gigawatts [...]

The Vietnamese economy has been growing by 5-7% a year for the past two decades. The government has plans to double power generation by 2030, but estimates that supply may run short as soon as next year. It needs to find new sources of power as soon as possible.

Coal is the cornerstone of Vietnam’s energy supply. Under current plans, the fleet of coal-fired power plants will soon triple. But construction has been dogged by regulatory delays, local opposition and flagging investor interest. Building a new plant takes the better part of a decade. Solar farms, in contrast, incite far less opposition and take about two years to build.

The solar boom has not been without problems. Almost all the new facilities are in the sunny south-east, where they overwhelm the local grid and occasionally force evn to refuse to buy the power they generate [...]

[...] South-East Asia will still have a lot more coal-fired generation than environmental activists would like. But solar’s sudden spark in Vietnam should at least change officials’ views of what is possible.​

 

[SageBrush]

The solar boom has not been without problems. Almost all the new facilities are in the sunny south-east, where they overwhelm the local grid and occasionally force evn to refuse to buy the power they generate [...]

Sounds like they need storage, EVs, and perhaps off-shore wind to match supply to demand.

Familiar story, just a little more acute due to the rapid build-out and lack of NG to play nanny

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

EIA Electric Power Monthly - January 2020 (to November 2019)

Solar lags wind by a lot, but continues to grow.

747.0MW of new utility scale solar was added and planned 12-month solar capacity additions increased by 1,271.0MW to 9,935.2MW.

Including estimated small-scale generation, solar was 2.07% of US generation compared to 1.74% a year ago, suggesting that it was quite a sunny month. That brought the rolling share to 2.56%, up from 2.21% a year ago.

Utility Solar:

Capacity (MW):

Period	Prior	Change	New	Change
Month	34,642.9	747.0	35,389.9	2.16%
YTD	31,878.4	3,511.5	35,389.9	11.02%
Rolling	30,448.1	4,941.8	35,389.9	16.23%
Plan +12mo	9,411.2	1,271.0	9,935.2	.

(PV) Capacity Factor (MW):

Value	Prior	Change	New	Change
Month Capacity	28,158.3	4,825.7	32,984.0	17.14%
Month Factor	17.3%	0.2%	17.5%	1.16%
Rolling 12mo Factor	25.4%	-0.9%	24.5%	-3.38%

Generation (GWh):

Year	Month	YTD	Rolling	Month %	YTD%	Rolling
2018	3,743	60,716	64,105	1.15%	1.57%	1.52%
2019	4,373	68,458	71,568	1.37%	1.80%	1.72%
Difference	630	7,742	7,463	0.22%	0.22%	0.20%

Small Scale Solar:

Capacity (MW):

Period	Prior	Change	New	Change
Month	22,467.8	236.8	22,704.6	1.05%
YTD	19,547.1	3,157.5	22,704.6	16.15%
Rolling	19,320.0	3,384.6	22,704.6	17.52%

Generation (GWh):

Year	Month	YTD	Rolling	Month %	YTD%	Rolling
2018	1,905	27,764	29,236	0.59%	0.72%	0.69%
2019	2,231	33,060	34,835	0.70%	0.87%	0.84%
Difference	326	5,296	5,599	0.11%	0.15%	0.15%

Total Solar:

Capacity (MW):

Period	Prior	Change	New	Change
Month	57,110.7	983.8	58,094.5	1.72%
YTD	51,425.5	6,669.0	58,094.5	12.97%
Rolling	49,768.1	8,326.4	58,094.5	16.73%

Generation (GWh):

Year	Month	YTD	Rolling	Month %	YTD%	Rolling
2018	5,648	88,480	93,341	1.74%	2.29%	2.21%
2019	6,604	101,519	106,403	2.07%	2.66%	2.56%
Difference	956	13,039	13,062	0.33%	0.37%	0.35%

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Vietnam grapples with an unexpected surge in solar power
The energy-hungry country may need fewer coal-fired plants than it thought

Solar power played almost no part in Vietnam’s energy mix in 2017. To speed the technology’s adoption, the government offered that year to pay suppliers a generous $0.09 for every kilowatt-hour produced by big solar farms, but only if they started operations within the following two years. It expected some 850mw of capacity to be installed. Instead, by the end of 2019 the country found itself with 5 gigawatts [...]

The Vietnamese economy has been growing by 5-7% a year for the past two decades. The government has plans to double power generation by 2030, but estimates that supply may run short as soon as next year. It needs to find new sources of power as soon as possible.

Coal is the cornerstone of Vietnam’s energy supply. Under current plans, the fleet of coal-fired power plants will soon triple. But construction has been dogged by regulatory delays, local opposition and flagging investor interest. Building a new plant takes the better part of a decade. Solar farms, in contrast, incite far less opposition and take about two years to build.

The solar boom has not been without problems. Almost all the new facilities are in the sunny south-east, where they overwhelm the local grid and occasionally force evn to refuse to buy the power they generate [...]

[...] South-East Asia will still have a lot more coal-fired generation than environmental activists would like. But solar’s sudden spark in Vietnam should at least change officials’ views of what is possible.​

Vietnam will face severe power shortages from 2021: ministry

It will also have to import liquefied natural gas (LNG) for its power plants, the ministry said, and the power shortage is expected to subside gradually after 2025 when several new gas-fired power plants go online.

Looking to LNG, not just coal.

 

[mspohr]

Vietnam will face severe power shortages from 2021: ministry



Looking to LNG, not just coal.

Not sure I understand the issue here. They have too much solar power but they have power shortages?