...my "evidence" is based on the history of telcos in Canada...
So that is to say, no evidence at all.
In fact, Telcos provide clear evidence to the contrary in this conversation. Telcos the world over--especially telco giants--have a history of back room, hand shake, or otherwise reciprocal agreements that effectively minimize or even eliminate competition in rural areas...and even when they don't, their product offerings in those areas are left wanting as the revenue vs cap/opex of maintaining/upgrading that rural infrastructure is no where near as profitable as higher density locations. Users are left with a choice of crappy service from Telco A or crappy service (potentially in a different crappy way) from Telco B
That is in fact, the exact reason Starlink will be successful in many of those areas--there's a point on the population density curve where terrestrial infrastructure simply doesn't pay out. (Sidenote: That point is moving)
Of course, unlike the telcos that have all basically agreed to provide crappy service in low density areas, Telesat will have an obvious and unrelenting global competitor in Starlink and, unless there's some completely out of character policy reversal that shuts down Starlink, a clear an unrelenting Canadian competitor in Starlink. In other words, the history of telcos in Canada is irrelevant, the only thing that matters is the inevitable success/competition of Starlink.
The project will be profitable (read expensive), and the Feds will heavily subsidize marginalized, remote communities for its' use.
Indeed if Telesat goes forward, it
will be profitable, again because the bankers behind the project will necessarily hang on to their loonies until they are convinced of profitability. AND, since it is very clear that Telesat needs to be globally profitable to actually be a successful--that is, there's simply not enough user base in Canadia for a profitability case--Telesat will have to offer a product globally competitive with Starlink. That means competitive price, speed, and latency.
There is no evidence that Telesat will be "expensive", in fact clear and obvious logic clearly favors the contrary: Telesat will necessarily need to be cost competitive with Starlink on the open market of unsubsidized subscribers.
There is no evidence that Telesat speed will be slow. Their global capacity will likely be in the ~20 terrabits range, with a self-advertised 8 terrabits/s as "usable"--that is, over areas with people that will actually pay for service.
There is no evidence that Telesat latency will be slow. Geometry + practical bottlenecks suggests 30-50ms is likely.
Finally, there is no possible way subsidies alone will make Telesat profitable, so whatever Hunky J's finance minions do for poor people in marginalized remote communities, it will make no bearing on Telesat's success.
The service will be spotty - probably only really serving the far north, where the Feds will pick up the cost
Once again, no actual evidence here, and in fact basic and very available evidence clearly supports contrary logic. Telesat will necessarily be comprehensive global coverage without gaps, save for the issues all satellite services have [to varying degrees] with line-of-sight, weather degradation, etc. Their most comprehensive latitudes of coverage will include northern USA and southern Canada, more or less the same as Starlink. (That's where most of the rural population lives--globally--that can also afford internet)
Any 'spotty' service will solely be the result of overcrowding which, of course while plausible, is improbable as that will simply drive customers to an alternate solution like Starlink. The Free Market will demand Telesat to manage their subscriber density.
To summarize, effectively what you're saying is that Telesat is going to provide crappy service and will only be successful because people will freely choose Telesat's crappy service over Starlink's [ostensibly] solid service. That makes as much sense as someone choosing to keep their crappy mobile service when a different mobile operator offers full bars in the same area.
