SpaceX investor's thread

[pz1975]

Just to be clear, the minimum investment is $50K - they just don't have shares available right now. ie. they probably will in the future. Shares are currently going for $47-53/share and I bid $47 for 2,000 expecting a negotiation or something. My guess is that the shares they had when I first asked got sold to someone else, but I don't know for sure. What I meant about my bid being too 'small' is that hey probably have/had larger lots for sale at lower prices, but $50K can get you shares if you are willing to pay a bit more per share and they have some available. I personally would rather just own my own shares and pay more (small % considering the potential over time) rather than be involved in a complicated LLC.

 

[TSLAopt]

Just to be clear, the minimum investment is $50K - they just don't have shares available right now. ie. they probably will in the future. Shares are currently going for $47-53/share and I bid $47 for 2,000 expecting a negotiation or something. My guess is that the shares they had when I first asked got sold to someone else, but I don't know for sure. What I meant about my bid being too 'small' is that hey probably have/had larger lots for sale at lower prices, but $50K can get you shares if you are willing to pay a bit more per share and they have some available. I personally would rather just own my own shares and pay more (small % considering the potential over time) rather than be involved in a complicated LLC.

th
anks PZ, but who did you contact at SpaceX ? Email address? I'd like to partake in getting some shares myself

 

[AndreN]

PZ is referring to a company called SharesPost (sharespost.com). I tried to use them to buy into another private company I was interested in, but in that case they wanted to sell a minimum of $250k so I walked away.

Another option here may be to contact MicroVentures (microventures.com). They do crowdfunding of startups and late-stage private companies. One example (that's actually public now so I can talk about it) was Twitter. I was able to get a block of shares last summer (which turned out to be good timing). I think the minimum buy-in in that case was $25k. Maybe if several of us ask for SpaceX shares, they can create a fund to buy in.

 

[InTheShadows]

PZ is referring to a company called SharesPost (sharespost.com). I tried to use them to buy into another private company I was interested in, but in that case they wanted to sell a minimum of $250k so I walked away.

Another option here may be to contact MicroVentures (microventures.com). They do crowdfunding of startups and late-stage private companies. One example (that's actually public now so I can talk about it) was Twitter. I was able to get a block of shares last summer (which turned out to be good timing). I think the minimum buy-in in that case was $25k. Maybe if several of us ask for SpaceX shares, they can create a fund to buy in.

That's what I was kinda hoping for, say if someone wants $100k, someone else , $60k, another $12k, etc we could all pool our money so they would talk to us.

 

[Subhuman]

This is all very interesting. I did not realize that the Average Joe had a chance in owning a portion of a private company. I would love to own a piece of SpaceX.

 

[Johan]

PZ is referring to a company called SharesPost (sharespost.com). I tried to use them to buy into another private company I was interested in, but in that case they wanted to sell a minimum of $250k so I walked away.

Another option here may be to contact MicroVentures (microventures.com). They do crowdfunding of startups and late-stage private companies. One example (that's actually public now so I can talk about it) was Twitter. I was able to get a block of shares last summer (which turned out to be good timing). I think the minimum buy-in in that case was $25k. Maybe if several of us ask for SpaceX shares, they can create a fund to buy in.

I would be very intersted in such a "joint venture" here on TMC. If someone has connections or know-how on how to get started, I'm in. Perhaps we could continue discussion in a thread I created quite a while back:

SpaceX investor's thread

 

[Mario Kadastik]

Maybe this thread could be moved from Off topic to SpaceX subthread in transportation. This way the SpaceX general news as well as possible investment news would be in one spot and as we already have a SpaceX subcategory, then why not there

 

[pz1975]

Not sure if anyone will find this, but Elon was in Washington today trying to convince the govt to end the monopoly that Lockheed-Boeing have for launch funding. Nice picture too - he must have been excited to meet him (Obama I mean being excited of course).

http://inthecapital.streetwise.co/2014/03/06/teslas-elon-musk-was-in-dc-wednesday-fighting-for-space-craft-funding/

 

[pz1975]

Video showing the congressional hearing where Musk argues for more competition for military space launches (watch the first 2 mins or so and then minutes 18-23 for Musk): SpaceX's Musk Pushes for U.S. Satellite Launches

Article summarizing the meeting: Musk Plays Russia Card in Fight to End Launch Monopoly - Bloomberg

 

[doug]

FYI, that's all being discussed in this thread: Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle thread EELV (DoD) - SpaceX vs. ULA

 

[pz1975]

Thanks! Hadn't seen that one before.

 

[clmason]

Not sure if anyone will find this, but Elon was in Washington today trying to convince the govt to end the monopoly that Lockheed-Boeing have for launch funding. Nice picture too - he must have been excited to meet him (Obama I mean being excited of course).

http://inthecapital.streetwise.co/2014/03/06/teslas-elon-musk-was-in-dc-wednesday-fighting-for-space-craft-funding/

I think that pic of musk and potus is a few years old, not from the recent Washington trip.

 

[EchoDelta]

I would be very intersted in such a "joint venture" here on TMC. If someone has connections or know-how on how to get started, I'm in. Perhaps we could continue discussion in a thread I created quite a while back:

SpaceX investor's thread

Same here. Will monitor this thread to see how it develops.

 

[pz1975]

TSLAopt and I are both in contact with Sharespost regarding SpaceX shares. Nothing imminent but they are planning to do a large fund purchase at some point where minimum entry will likely be $100K. I will provide updates as new info comes out.

 

[marvinat0rz]

About the "accredited investor" status: Do you actually have to document that you are an accredited investor, or is it enough that you lie on the application? I know that US regulations after the dotcom bubble require you to be an "accredited investor" which means something on the order of $2 million in assets, in order to buy shares in privately held companies. Companies like SecondMarket and Sharespost claim to require such status in order to buy shares.

Have any of you on this board ever purchased unlisted stocks like this? Is there any way that I, a relatively poor average Joe, can cheat the paperwork to buy unlisted shares? There seems there are so many opportunities in this space, but so little possibility to exploit it.

 

[Discoducky]

TSLAopt and I are both in contact with Sharespost regarding SpaceX shares. Nothing imminent but they are planning to do a large fund purchase at some point where minimum entry will likely be $100K. I will provide updates as new info comes out.

Awesome, waiting with baited breath

 

[DaveT]

I'm trying to wrap my head around how to value SpaceX. Can someone articulate the case for SpaceX to be worth much higher than the $8b it's currently valued at?

It seems like the rocket launch business can be divided into commercial (ie., gps/communication/internet satellites) and government (ie., NASA, U.S. military, foreign govts with approval from U.S.). However, this rocket launch market is limited (maybe several billion dollars of launches per year). So, even if SpaceX comes to dominate this market and let's say achieves a revenue of $4b a year. Then, let's say they have 30-35% GM and 15% operating profit. That would leave $600m in operating profit. Let's give a 30x multiple. That would equal a valuation of $18b. Then, let's give an option value for the Mars Colonial Transporter. I'm not sure how much to give for that, but let's say $2-4b in market cap. So let's say SpaceX's market cap could be $20-22b if they can dominate the rocket launch business.

My questions would be:
How big is the rocket launch market in annual revenue/sales?
What's the growth rate of the rocket launch business?
Am I missing potential revenue streams in my rough model?
What's SpaceX's current revenue (ie., in 2013)?
What's SpaceX's projected revenue in 2014, 2015?
Does anybody know their gross margin?

 

[Twiddler]

Awesome, waiting with baited breath

I have also approached SharesPost with the same request (Lisa Miller is my POC). As stated earlier, attempts to sell SpaceX shares have been thwarted by the company exercising its right to first purchase. She is slightly more optimistic that such a large purchase through a private entity (e.g. a separate LLC comprised of us individual investors) may be possible. Please do count me in as we move forward on this; I am looking to put in 100-250K (depending on where TSLA is when I decide to withdraw). Very excited to own this co, but yes, as DaveT points out, the price must be fair, and thank you Dave for taking the initiative in helping us come up with some sort of fair value.

 

[dsm363]

Seems like an interesting opportunity but the minimum investment being $100k is high.

 

[anon]

I'm trying to wrap my head around how to value SpaceX. Can someone articulate the case for SpaceX to be worth much higher than the $8b it's currently valued at?

It seems like the rocket launch business can be divided into commercial (ie., gps/communication/internet satellites) and government (ie., NASA, U.S. military, foreign govts with approval from U.S.). However, this rocket launch market is limited (maybe several billion dollars of launches per year). So, even if SpaceX comes to dominate this market and let's say achieves a revenue of $4b a year. Then, let's say they have 30-35% GM and 15% operating profit. That would leave $600m in operating profit. Let's give a 30x multiple. That would equal a valuation of $18b. Then, let's give an option value for the Mars Colonial Transporter. I'm not sure how much to give for that, but let's say $2-4b in market cap. So let's say SpaceX's market cap could be $20-22b if they can dominate the rocket launch business.

My questions would be:
How big is the rocket launch market in annual revenue/sales?
What's the growth rate of the rocket launch business?
Am I missing potential revenue streams in my rough model?
What's SpaceX's current revenue (ie., in 2013)?
What's SpaceX's projected revenue in 2014, 2015?
Does anybody know their gross margin?

The launch industry isn't really growing a lot; well, there has been some recent growth in the number of large communication satellites being launched, but that is likely to drop slightly again towards the end of the decade. Sometimes there are more launches for constellations like O3b, Iridium, etc, but they tend to be cyclical.

Rather than looking at the current launch industry, I think the ultimate value of SpaceX will be realized when they create fully reusable launch vehicles - the orders of magnitude cost reduction from that will likely be so great that entirely new mass-market uses of space will open up. A couple of things that have had a lot of press lately are space tourism and asteroid mining, both of which would become much more affordable.
However, there is another potentially major form of space commercialization that isn't talked about so often: zero-gravity manufacturing. I'm no expert on this, but my understanding is that entirely new manufacturing processes could be developed with applications from new drugs to improved semi-conductor wafers. The biggest thing holding this back is the enormous cost of getting to/from orbit. Similarly, space-based solar power could also become economically feasible with cheap launches.

Finally, although it seems a little dreamy at the moment, I think that Elon's ambitions for Mars colonies will be worth a lot more than $4B if they are fully realized.