Speculation: Gen4 will be a robotaxi for under $30k

[DaveT]

Tesla will likely announce Gen4 within the next couple years and it will be a barebones robotaxi for under $30k. I don’t have any info that others don’t have regarding this, so this is just my speculation.

The Model 3 actually isn’t an ideal robotaxi. It’s meant as a drivers car to compete with the BMW 3 series in terms of sport and performance. However, a robotaxi doesn’t need blazing 0-60mph times or great handling. A robotaxi needs a good ride, good ingress/egress, and needs to be very efficient.

For Tesla’s Gen4 robotaxi, they can use much smaller motors (compared to Model 3) and they can use much cheaper parts since they don’t need sport/performance. All this will allow Tesla to build a lighter car as well, which will mean they can use a smaller battery pack (compared to the Model 3). Gen4 robotaxi will be an utilitarian efficiency beast.

In my opinion, Tesla will have no option but to focus efforts on this Gen4 robotaxi as it will give them a competitive advantage in what will become a brutally competitive autonomous transport market.

 

[pz1975]

I like this idea. I would expect that the car would still be for sale as a regular driving car as well.

They could call it Model R (for Robotaxi), and this would make it S3XYR.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Tesla will likely announce Gen4 within the next couple years and it will be a barebones robotaxi for under $30k. I don’t have any info that others don’t have regarding this, so this is just my speculation.

The Model 3 actually isn’t an ideal robotaxi. It’s meant as a drivers car to compete with the BMW 3 series in terms of sport and performance. However, a robotaxi doesn’t need blazing 0-60mph times or great handling. A robotaxi needs a good ride, good ingress/egress, and needs to be very efficient.

For Tesla’s Gen4 robotaxi, they can use much smaller motors (compared to Model 3) and they can use much cheaper parts since they don’t need sport/performance. All this will allow Tesla to build a lighter car as well, which will mean they can use a smaller battery pack (compared to the Model 3). Gen4 robotaxi will be an utilitarian efficiency beast.

In my opinion, Tesla will have no option but to focus efforts on this Gen4 robotaxi as it will give them a competitive advantage in what will become a brutally competitive autonomous transport market.

Downside of this is that, with their current leasing scheme, even under $30k would be much more expensive than they’re effectively paying for a Model 3 SR+ robotaxi. Each one is effectively subsidized by the lease payments to the tune of at least $18,864.

 

[EVNow]

Tesla will likely announce Gen4 within the next couple years and it will be a barebones robotaxi for under $30k. I don’t have any info that others don’t have regarding this, so this is just my speculation.

Actually Musk talked about this in the autonomy day. By deleting various parts they can get to 25k.

They won’t be selling them, though for under $30k.

 

[replicant]

Actually Musk talked about this in the autonomy day. By deleting various parts they can get to 25k.

They won’t be selling them, though for under $30k.

IMO they would need a smaller car, too and/or a mini van for ridesharing. The Model 3 was originally designed as a long range, high performance, mid-luxury vehicle. I think most taxi trips will be

• very short > small battery back = small wheel base required
  
• max speed will rarely exceed 50 mph > no performance needed, only durability
  
• car will spend most of the time fighting dense traffic > the shorter the vehicle, the easier to move/park
• extreme utilization rate by non owners > cheap material, easy repair and easy cleaning (by robots)

The Model 3 was never designed for that. IMO, if one manufacturer can design a durable, cheap EV made specifically for robotaxi (hatchback and/or minivan), and manufacture them en masse, and let Waymo/Apple/Amazon (or any other) do the the FSD part, then Tesla could quickly get priced out.

I used the Autolib service for ~5 years in/around Paris, which is probably the closest thing you can experience to Tesla's future robotaxi service: a cheap EV you can pick up and drop almost anywhere, that you pay by minutes, with no one supervising your usage. The car was fun to drive (although it wasn't autonomous, obviously) but holy *sugar* they were "aging" rapidly.

People really don't take care if

• they don't own the car
• they aren't responsible for its cleaning
• they use is at night, especially to go out with friends (who are even less careful... and drunker)
• even if they know the next rider might report you for the damage/dirtiness (you never know who exactly messed up so you just report the car as "dirty" and move on... so it's end up as a "free rider" dilemma)

Has any one tried the similar BlueLA car sharing program in Los Angeles and describe how it's going? cf. How to use LA’s all-electric car-share program

The program in Paris was shut down (ended up too expensive to operate) but I don't know if the cost of the vehicle/service was a factor.

 

[EVNow]

max speed will rarely exceed 50 mph > no performance needed, only durability

Not in US. Freeway driving is quite common here.

But, yes, doesn't have to be a high perf car.

In terms of making sure the car is clean, the car should take interior photos of the car just before the ride and just after. That should be proof enough to charge the riders.

 

[Scott7]

The Model 3 actually isn’t an ideal robotaxi. It’s meant as a drivers car to compete with the BMW 3 series in terms of sport and performance. However, a robotaxi doesn’t need blazing 0-60mph times or great handling. A robotaxi needs a good ride, good ingress/egress, and needs to be very efficient.

Yes, Tesla doesn't really make any cars that are the ideal robotaxi or even very close. White seats, unusual door handles, low ride height, smallish rear doors, falcon wing doors, etc. I think the Model Y will be a better fit for this use than Model 3.

 

[Nifty-Stuff]

Digging up this old thread for 2 reasons:

1) I had a conference call this week with @DaveT 's brother who pointed out Dave's youtube channel (which I've now subscribed ) which lead me to looking through @DaveT 's threads here on TMC
2) Reading through this thread and thinking about the Model 3 not being the ideal robo-taxi car, and "something cheaper" makes me think about the recent announcements about a $25k Tesla model... that probably has less "blazing 0-60mph times or great handling... sport and performance" and more of "a good ride, good ingress/egress, and needs to be very efficient."

Dave, curious about your thoughts on this?

 

[DaveT]

Digging up this old thread for 2 reasons:

1) I had a conference call this week with @DaveT 's brother who pointed out Dave's youtube channel (which I've now subscribed ) which lead me to looking through @DaveT 's threads here on TMC
2) Reading through this thread and thinking about the Model 3 not being the ideal robo-taxi car, and "something cheaper" makes me think about the recent announcements about a $25k Tesla model... that probably has less "blazing 0-60mph times or great handling... sport and performance" and more of "a good ride, good ingress/egress, and needs to be very efficient."

Dave, curious about your thoughts on this?

Hey, nice meeting you. Yeah I definitely see Tesla’s focus on building their next gem platform which will be a $25k car but actually two different car programs, one for Europe and one for China. So they will be different designs and cars. They will become the bulk of the Robotaxi fleet eventually and also Tesla’s most popular selling car. Some people think Tesla won’t sell them but keep all of them, which could be possible for first couple years, but it’s clear to me that Elon wants to sell more affordable cars to people as well.

 

[MC3OZ]

IMO Tesla will proceed with Phase 2 at Austin ASAP after Phase 1 and Phase 2 will include Model 3.
My reasoning is that Model 3 will serve as a primary Robotaxi, until the $25K models can be built.
For similar reasons I see Austin building at least one of the $25K models primarily to serve as US Robotaxis.
I also agree with Dave in that Tesla will keep selling cars, although for lower end models this may be limited to leasing. with no right of purchase, for a time.
Robotaxi roll out will be city-by-city, state-by-state, it makes sense to fully prove the eco-system on a small scale in a few carefully chosen locations