No I mean the v9 release... They are going to release it slowly to the selected beta testers, and then to a larger group and so on. Best case scenario the average buyer would see it in q4.. They aren't holding the S up for that. Also does not explain the x delays, also does not line up with what we see in testers and what (little) Elon has said.
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Speculation on the reason for the refresh delay
- Thread starter jaguar36
- Start date
No I mean the v9 release... They are going to release it slowly to the selected beta testers, and then to a larger group and so on. Best case scenario the average buyer would see it in q4.. They aren't holding the S up for that. Also does not explain the x delays, also does not line up with what we see in testers and what (little) Elon has said.
tpedwards
Member
I hadn't thought of the X delays and how that fits in. The first release of v9 will go wide (perhaps) next week. It has been in limited testing for quite a while.
You are probably right, other factors holding it up. I hope they get them sorted out and you get your S soon!
Yeah I do not trust any timeline related to fsd. I wouldn't be shocked if it isn't out for another month or so. Lol.
But I hope they start delivering soon, even if I don't get mine for a couple of months. Dying to hear about the features of this expensive ass car I'm buying.
The v9 release isn't necessary. Elon said that Tesla Vision, without radar, goes to the production fleet starting next week. Then it will be polished up and turned in to FSD beta v9. So if the new S&X don't have radar they need the software that will be released next week... Not the FSD beta that will be released in months.
tpedwards
Member
Interesting. Not the way I heard it, but I probably heard it wrong. I heard v9 goes wide next week. Likely that I merged v9 and Tesla Vision. My speculation that the refreshed S/X not having RADAR may be correct, however.
tpedwards
Member
Ah, interesting. Yeah, I had those two timelines merged incorrectly.
I bet this wasn't the plan. I bet they thought they would be ready to take v9 wide by this time or earlier and no impact on the S/X deliveries. I bet a month or two they realized that v9 would take longer than anticipated causing (or being one cause) of delay deliveries of refreshed S/X and they had to stage out to distinct deliverables. Get Tesla Vision out there earlier to enable deliveries of S/X. There may have been other factors, but software became the long pole in the tent. Tesla Vision became the critical path to deliveries.
tpedwards
Member
Ah, that's an easy one. No one else tries to blend or balance decision making between RADAR and vision. When there was a discrepancy between the two, take the safer path... not sure? BRAKE!!! Oops. Take RADAR out of consideration. Now you balance vision interpretation between differing viewpoints (cameras), but they will all use the same vision algorithms.
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
I don't know where you get the impression there's no phantom braking in other OEMs. It's easy to find examples (they just don't typically call it "phantom braking" as that seems to be a term used mainly by Tesla forum goers):
Sudden deceleration while in Cruise Control - AudiWorld Forums
Adaptive Cruise Malfunctions - Scary - Ford F150 Forum - Community of Ford Truck Fans
Adaptive cruise control and random braking 2021 Q5e Prestige - AudiWorld Forums
Honda Sensing - Which Part Slammed On My Brakes ?
There's even a bunch of reported issues of phantom braking with AEB, which applies even harder braking, so is more dangerous (Tesla didn't seem to have similar cases of phantom AEB activation, just complaints in terms of AP).
Nissan's AEB is Suddenly Stopping Vehicles For No Reason
Audi, VW Automatic Brake Problems Could Prompt Lawsuit
Mazda3 Recalled for Sudden, Unexpected Emergency Braking
Radar is easily fooled by overpasses, large trucks, metal guardrails on the side of the road (very common causes of phantom braking). I remember overpasses/signs being the common trigger for Tesla's radar back then and they had to implement a whitelist system.
"Initially, the vehicle fleet will take no action except to note the position of road signs, bridges and other stationary objects, mapping the world according to radar. The car computer will then silently compare when it would have braked to the driver action and upload that to the Tesla database. If several cars drive safely past a given radar object, whether Autopilot is turned on or off, then that object is added to the geocoded whitelist."
Upgrading Autopilot: Seeing the World in Radar
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How often does Tesla ever deliver new products/features on Musk's timeline???
The length of this delay is now much longer than would take for just regulatory approval - evidently something in the redesign had go back through the engineering process - which takes time.
For those Tesla customers who have S/X orders placed and are waiting, I can sympathize based on waits for our 2012 S P85 and 2017 S 100D.
The biggest problem with this delay is that when the manufacturing "pause" happened, Musk should have come out and admitted that the refreshed S/X was a big deal - and that the "pause" could be months and not weeks to polish the vehicle design and work out the manufacturing kinks.
And that would have prepared customers for this wait, instead of what happened - pretending they would start deliveries in January - and then have customers disappointed that it will likely take until June or later before that actually happens.
Though... Once deliveries do happen and people get the vehicles in their hands, the frustration in the delay should fade quickly - and be replaced with the satisfaction of having the refreshed S/X models that customers have been asking for.
The length of this delay is now much longer than would take for just regulatory approval - evidently something in the redesign had go back through the engineering process - which takes time.
For those Tesla customers who have S/X orders placed and are waiting, I can sympathize based on waits for our 2012 S P85 and 2017 S 100D.
The biggest problem with this delay is that when the manufacturing "pause" happened, Musk should have come out and admitted that the refreshed S/X was a big deal - and that the "pause" could be months and not weeks to polish the vehicle design and work out the manufacturing kinks.
And that would have prepared customers for this wait, instead of what happened - pretending they would start deliveries in January - and then have customers disappointed that it will likely take until June or later before that actually happens.
Though... Once deliveries do happen and people get the vehicles in their hands, the frustration in the delay should fade quickly - and be replaced with the satisfaction of having the refreshed S/X models that customers have been asking for.
RobK
Member
I totally agree. I am more upset with the silence from Tesla than the delay. I placed an order for my Model S (LR) in March and sold my 2015 S 85 with 22K miles. In hindsight I should have kept my old Tesla until the new one was on my driveway. It is really hard it is to be a silent passenger on my wife's ICE wagon.
I can confirm. I've had a Acura MDX for a while and I've had it do phantom braking a number of times, especially on bridges.
This was especially for you: "There's no way Tesla wins here and it only breeds resentment, especially when fanned by the usual FUDsters on TMC." 
AMPd
Well-Known Member
Ok. And?This was especially for you: "There's no way Tesla wins here and it only breeds resentment, especially when fanned by the usual FUDsters on TMC."
still fail to see why anyone would be livid to see someone taking delivery of the model s, I and many others would be ecstatic to finally see the real world product and get answers to the many questions that are still unanswered.
I ordered my MS LR in early April, would be very happy to see people who ordered before me taking delivery of theirs.
RobK
Member
Tesla just updated my account that used to show my delivery date of "10-14 Week". The new delivery is in August.
I had placed an order for Model S (LR) on March 10, 2021
I had placed an order for Model S (LR) on March 10, 2021
AMPd
Well-Known Member
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