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Speculation on the reason for the refresh delay
- Thread starter jaguar36
- Start date
One mistake Tesla (Musk) made with the refreshed rollout - was that once they stopped production, they should have admitted it would be months before the first refreshed S/X would be sold. Initially it was only supposed to be a few weeks of downtime - and that's stretching out to 5-6 months.
It would have been fine to just admit this was a larger change. It's possible they are combining the S/X production onto the same line - which would free up space for the higher volume 3/Y production at Fremont - and doing that adds even more complexity - taking the S/X manufacturing process and upgrading it to build two vehicles on one line - and likely also automating tasks that were being manually done for S/X (since they went into production before 3/Y).
And, if they've made enough changes - they will likely have to go through the same safety/fuel economy tests required for a new vehicle - which adds time to the release schedule, not completely under Tesla's control (which is why they had a month of S 100D vehicles sitting at Service Centers before they could deliver the first one - waiting for the EPA approval).
For Tesla S/X now represent a very small (and shrinking) percentage of their vehicles sold. But this small percentage is still very important - because it defends Tesla against the luxury manufacturers (Mercedes, BMW, Lexus, ...) who only sell vehicles in relatively small volumes. And if Tesla can reduce manufacturing costs for S/X, they should be able to make more profit per vehicles than the higher volume 3/Y models.
We're several years from considering replacements for our S 100D and X 100D (unless we decide to replace one with a CyberTruck) - and the refreshed S/X would be at the top of our list for our next purchase.
It would have been fine to just admit this was a larger change. It's possible they are combining the S/X production onto the same line - which would free up space for the higher volume 3/Y production at Fremont - and doing that adds even more complexity - taking the S/X manufacturing process and upgrading it to build two vehicles on one line - and likely also automating tasks that were being manually done for S/X (since they went into production before 3/Y).
And, if they've made enough changes - they will likely have to go through the same safety/fuel economy tests required for a new vehicle - which adds time to the release schedule, not completely under Tesla's control (which is why they had a month of S 100D vehicles sitting at Service Centers before they could deliver the first one - waiting for the EPA approval).
For Tesla S/X now represent a very small (and shrinking) percentage of their vehicles sold. But this small percentage is still very important - because it defends Tesla against the luxury manufacturers (Mercedes, BMW, Lexus, ...) who only sell vehicles in relatively small volumes. And if Tesla can reduce manufacturing costs for S/X, they should be able to make more profit per vehicles than the higher volume 3/Y models.
We're several years from considering replacements for our S 100D and X 100D (unless we decide to replace one with a CyberTruck) - and the refreshed S/X would be at the top of our list for our next purchase.
RobK
Member
They literally just have you an update last week. It didn't sound like all the kinks were 100% worked out, which is why he said "probably next month" which we all know really means June-July. If they were 100% finalized and being produced you could've gotten the exact date. For him to give another without the car being finished would be another mistake.
What if the question wasn't asked? Also a mostly cut off sentence about battery and factory safety is not the greatest of communications. At least the production ramp timing was clear (and hopefully achievable).
Huh? There wasnt a question, they addressed it upfront. I thought he made the timeline pretty clear and made the fact that they aren't 100% there just yet pretty clear which is implied by the fact he said "probably" next month
Sbaimo
12/15 LR black/white 21” no FSD delivered 6/30
My guess is that we see deliveries after they start production sometime in the future.
i ordered in December and last believed I would receive car by mid June. Now I think mid-July, but I am certain this may change.
And my guess is as good as any SA.
i ordered in December and last believed I would receive car by mid June. Now I think mid-July, but I am certain this may change.
And my guess is as good as any SA.
How to get customers piffed: Delayed deliveries for all.
How to get customers ANGRY: Deliveries for a lucky few while most have to wait.
Start deliveries and people waiting in line for theirs will be clamoring and livid when they see the lucky few driving theirs around. You want to be one of the few that get their new MS, right? Everyone else can wait behind you. If it's as amazing as it sounds, then the line will only get longer with more livid and angry people. Anyone that got theirs is obviously an influencer or a friend of Elon that got special treatment ...etc... There's no way Tesla wins here and it only breeds resentment, especially when fanned by the usual FUDsters on TMC.
I'm sure Tesla could produce a few MS and they're choosing not to. They're designed for high volume production so I'd guess they're stockpiling and making sure their supply chain can handle a sustained full production ramp. 3/Y production and getting the CT pre-production line up is likely keeping them busy enough.
How to get customers ANGRY: Deliveries for a lucky few while most have to wait.
Start deliveries and people waiting in line for theirs will be clamoring and livid when they see the lucky few driving theirs around. You want to be one of the few that get their new MS, right? Everyone else can wait behind you. If it's as amazing as it sounds, then the line will only get longer with more livid and angry people. Anyone that got theirs is obviously an influencer or a friend of Elon that got special treatment ...etc... There's no way Tesla wins here and it only breeds resentment, especially when fanned by the usual FUDsters on TMC.
I'm sure Tesla could produce a few MS and they're choosing not to. They're designed for high volume production so I'd guess they're stockpiling and making sure their supply chain can handle a sustained full production ramp. 3/Y production and getting the CT pre-production line up is likely keeping them busy enough.
AMPd
Well-Known Member
Did you get high and post that? Because those are the ramblings of someone who’s a few hits into the Mendocino greeno.
I don’t think too many people will be angry or livid if Tesla started delivering vehicles. Not sure exactly why someone who say ordered in May would be livid to see someone who ordered theirs in December take delivery.
If you read the few threads about the delay you’ll see that most people are angry with the lack of communication regarding the delay. So if Tesla all of a sudden started delivering cars, 99% of the anger goes away.
tpedwards
Member
This is it. Absolutely clear to me now. Tesla did not build the refresh Model S and X with RADAR. However, their build was a little ahead of their software engineering. They did build a bunch of cars, although they are ramping up, but not too quickly until deliveries occur. Watch, once FSD v9 rolls out, deliveries will happen.
- This delay is not due to chip shortage.
- It is not due to quality control.
- It is not due regulatory concerns.
- It is not due to a new battery (although there may be new packaging of 1865 or 2170 cells).
It is due to timing of FSD v9 release. Nothing more.
Literally zero chance this is correct. Elon already let slip they had battery issues. Not only that, testers have been spotted with modifications, Tesla removed the lift/right tilt functionality of the screen.
What's clear is, the car wasn't ready to go, they've had issues with parts and or the new cell chemistry, hence the battery safety issues.
Why the hell would they wait for v9 of self driving? Many model S owners didn't even order it. Also why would model x orders be delayed until next year?
Sorry, no one wants to admit it, I guess, but they ran into a bunch of issues with a lot of the new tech in the car. Pretty simple.
Sbaimo
12/15 LR black/white 21” no FSD delivered 6/30
I know that I don't have a clue as to what the holdup is. But I would really like to receive my S. Like others, when I ordered in December, I was told to expect delivery in mid February. My best guess is that the car is not ready for production because they haven't ironed out all the issues with the new model.
Please mention if you receive a VIN and/or delivery date. I would appreciate that. I definitely will also post something if I hear something from Tesla about my delivery date.
Please mention if you receive a VIN and/or delivery date. I would appreciate that. I definitely will also post something if I hear something from Tesla about my delivery date.
It would have nothing to do with FSD. If they removed radar from the design they would have to have the Tesla Vision software ready to release for even basic AP. (Which Elon has said will hopefully be next week.)
tpedwards
Member
The battery issue is related to packaging. There is no new chemistry novel to the new Model S Plaid or LR. New packs and/or some elements of structural pack related to front/rear castings. Speculation sure, but I bet we will see 2170's in the refresh. The new pack issues may have been on his mind, but I doubt that is preventing deliveries.
Why the hell would they wait for v9 of FSD? Because there is NO RADAR in the car. This impacts TACC as well as AutoSteer. They are dependent on v9 as well. If there is no RADAR in the car, there is no point in building a car that cannot be driven as designed.
tpedwards
Member
Exactly! I mention FSD only for the nomenclature (which may not be appropriate), firmware v11 or AutoPilot v9 or FSD v9? Regardless, I believe you are correct, the Tesla Vision software or the software that removes RADAR from consideration for AutoPilot features comes (perhaps) next week. If they start deliveries after this rolls out, likely I was correct.
What? The cell chemistry is new, but still in the 18650 form factor. The battery pack is also new and some of the innards are new (12 volt battery). I just think that stuff isn't going well.
I see your point on the radar, but I'm not sure why they'd hold up for that... You do know that v9, when it is released, is going to be to a very small group of people, and slowly increased right? That means that the average buyer won't see it for 6-12 months assuming everything goes perfectly.
They aren't holding up the s for that.
tpedwards
Member
No, it is not just a small number of people. If v9 removes RADAR from consideration from AutoPilot, that includes existing cars as well and not just for FSD. Why would they have FSD rely on vision only, but basic AutoPilot would still rely on RADAR. no way. Out it comes. They already fork for HW 2.0 or 2.5, but all those would remain stuck with RADAR. Anyone with HW 3.0 would have RADAR removed from AutoPilot whether FSD, basic or EAP.
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