Starlink IPO

[kengchang]

Revenue and earnings are hard to guess, maybe $300/customer/year and 20 million customers (but it might be 200 million customers). But it seems to me that the majority of the revenue is likely to come from commercial customers. There is also the question of whether Starlink can sell added services on top of basic data connectivity.

Currently paying $70/mo $840/year on internet only, even $600-700 a year is reasonable.

 

[Zaxxon]

Currently paying $70/mo $840/year on internet only, even $600-700 a year is reasonable.

Same. And to the contrary, I'd gladly pay SpaceX a small premium vs giving my money to Comcast, assuming the speeds and reliability are sufficient. I am fairly certain I'm not alone.

 

[wipster]

Who's responsible for cleaning up the potential "space junk?" This could be quite an expensive and difficult task. Even if these satellites are the only ones floating in a specific orbit, debris can and will go everywhere. I would the liability insurance on these puppies won't be cheap.

Don't get me wrong, I'm excited about potentially buying in at IPO pricing, but as with any potential acquisition, we need to do our due diligence.

 

[Zaxxon]

Who's responsible for cleaning up the potential "space junk?" This could be quite an expensive and difficult task. Even if these satellites are the only ones floating in a specific orbit, debris can and will go everywhere. I would the liability insurance on these puppies won't be cheap.

Don't get me wrong, I'm excited about potentially buying in at IPO pricing, but as with any potential acquisition, we need to do our due diligence.

The Starlink satellites are designed to disintegrate after their useful life.

 

[wipster]

The Starlink satellites are designed to disintegrate after their useful life.

That's not what I'm worried about...

 

[VT_EE]

I believe they plan on launching something like 400 satellites via Starship with everything reusable. What are launch and replacement satellite costs if we start scaling at that level?

How would Blue Origin or OneWeb even compete at that scale?

Starship would certainly bring launch costs way down, but let’s not forget it has never flown. I have no clue what the actual costs would be or what SpaceX is paying for their satellite hardware. Designing, building, and flying the largest rocket ever will invariably encounter some difficulties and delays. I wouldn’t count on it for the initial constellation deployment.

Blue Origin will have their own rockets to keep costs down. Jeff Bezos also has a bottomless checkbook to get the company going.

I have no faith OneWeb will survive without cheap launches.

 

[Remus]

Ok my only question is

How do I get in?

 

[VT_EE]

You think the NSA hasn't already cut them a check for $15B and the Pentagon another $100B?

Anything is possible, but nothing has been reported.

 

[Yuri_G]

It’s currently roughly $1miilion to launch a Starlink satellite on the Falcon 9 (~$60million / 60 satellites) at market prices. I’m sure it costs SpaceX less than this, but market prices should be used for any spun-off company. Just to launch a 15000 a bird constellation would be somewhere in the neighborhood of $15 Billion. I believe each satellite has a lifespan around 5 years at the very low orbit they have specified meaning they would have to spend $3 Billion a year in launch costs just to maintain the 15000. Add more satellites and the cost goes up. This doesn’t include any other costs such as: operation, design, sales, satellite hardware, etc.

I’m not sure how big the market really is to fund these types of expenses. I’ve seen things tossed around like $50 Billion potential revenue, but no info how these figures were calculated.

I would love to see this thing pan out, but it is a very risky endeavor even with the head start. The satellite industry is littered with failed companies that couldn’t achieve the projected revenue. And let’s not forget Jeff Bezos is hell bent on launching his own system using Blue Origin. This adds additional risk in the form of probable competitors forcing revenue down.

The first sentence is not true because all Starlink satellites have been launched on boosters that have been used multiple times. On top that there will be economies of scale as SpaceX builds thousands of more satellites. The cost to launch gets cheaper as the number of booster reuses increases.

This is a good read to gain an appreciation of how brilliant this constellation could be.

Starlink is a very big deal

That's not what I'm worried about...

They're also designed to autonomously avoid other satellites.

 

[wipster]

They're also designed to autonomously avoid other satellites.

Yeah, I'm sure they are, but there are a lot more satellites or groups of satellites planned for launch and in the next few years the amount of objects in orbit will grow substantially and many, if not most, will not be built to SpaceX standards... those are the ones I'm concerned about. It's just a matter of time before there is an accident in space and I for one want to know how they're planning for it.

I'm still buying stock though...

 

[Rarity]

That's not what I'm worried about...

The early sats are going into a self-cleaning orbit. Later sats might also go into these kinds of orbits, depending on SpaceX wishes and the FCC's approval.

 

[VT_EE]

The first sentence is not true because all Starlink satellites have been launched on boosters that have been used multiple times. On top that there will be economies of scale as SpaceX builds thousands of more satellites. The cost to launch gets cheaper as the number of booster reuses increases.

This is a good read to gain an appreciation of how brilliant this constellation could be.

Starlink is a very big deal



They're also designed to autonomously avoid other satellites.

The numbers quoted are approximations for what SpaceX currently charges other customers regardless of whether it’s a reused booster or not. (via Google search) If you have information that shows launches cost commercial customers significantly less, I’d be interested to see them. $60 mil is pretty damn cheap for a launch btw.

 

[Remus]

The numbers quoted are approximations for what SpaceX currently charges other customers regardless of whether it’s a reused booster or not. (via Google search) If you have information that shows launches cost commercial customers significantly less, I’d be interested to see them. $60 mil is pretty damn cheap for a launch btw.

I think space X will have information for how the special connection between the two companies works. We just don't have that information yet.

Even if they pay market rate for launch, they pack 60 units in with a special fairing which is not likely to be done with other companies. And there definitely will be some scheduling advantages too. Did space X wait in line as everyone else when they try to buy cars from Tesla?

 

[surrealize]

Who's responsible for cleaning up the potential "space junk?" This could be quite an expensive and difficult task.

The early satellites are going into a low enough orbit that they experience atmospheric drag. So, like Rarity said, unpowered objects at that altitude de-orbit within a few years.

 

[wipster]

The early sats are going into a self-cleaning orbit. Later sats might also go into these kinds of orbits, depending on SpaceX wishes and the FCC's approval.

Read what I posted above, not talking about the satellites themselves.

 

[wipster]

Read what I posted above.

 

[adiggs]

Same. And to the contrary, I'd gladly pay SpaceX a small premium vs giving my money to Comcast, assuming the speeds and reliability are sufficient. I am fairly certain I'm not alone.

You are not alone! Assuming good latency and speeds, on the order as I get from comcast right now, I would gladly pay Starlink a small premium for the privilege of not doing business with Comcast (who is in turn, receiving my money for the privilege of not doing business with Frontier).

Of course, there might only be 2 of us


I learned not so long ago, that rural Internet is a pretty serious impediment to my wife and I moving out into the country. Most of the houses we looked at, we'd be moving to some sort of fixed base wireless - bad Internet compared to what we're accustomed, and probably at a premium (we never got far enough past the quality of service to find out the pricing).

And then there's the "don't do business with Comcast" factor. Hey look - Elon's got his eye on ANOTHER huge industry to disrupt!

 

[Fred42]

I learned not so long ago, that rural Internet is a pretty serious impediment to my wife and I moving out into the country. Most of the houses we looked at, we'd be moving to some sort of fixed base wireless - bad Internet compared to what we're accustomed, and probably at a premium (we never got far enough past the quality of service to find out the pricing).

There are satellite internet providers today. You could sign up with one if you want to move before Starlink is available and switch later.

The area where I live has no cable. Until Verizon put in Fios about 3 years ago, I had a satellite internet connection. It was OK.

 

[Remus]

My only concern is the network quality during storms. If it works in the rain then I am in.

 

[Singer3000]

Will be interesting to see the IPO valuation, timing and use of proceeds. Will a slug of the proceeds be used to build out the network? Or does SpaceX need a pay forward on Starlink to get to the next stage with the Mars rockets?