Starting to regret FSD pre-purchase in a major way

[Uncle Paul]

Elon says he has plans for all sorts of things that he intends to implement. They do not all come to fruition.

Kind of like the cute girl that smiles at you, but won't let you into her bedroom.

Life is often frustrating, especiallly if you let your expectations dictate your reality.

 

[vikefan]

Elon says he has plans for all sorts of things that he intends to implement. They do not all come to fruition.

Kind of like the cute girl that smiles at you, but won't let you into her bedroom.

Life is often frustrating, especiallly if you let your expectations dictate your reality.

Ok so, again, some of you seem to be missing the part where ITS ILLEGAL TO SELL THINGS YOU DONT INTEND TO DELIVER.

There is absolutely nothing analogous here to a “cute girl” who teases you. Yes, every consumer has the RIGHT to expect the goods and services they pay for to be delivered.

 

[Chewy3]

Elon says he has plans for all sorts of things that he intends to implement. They do not all come to fruition.

Kind of like the cute girl that smiles at you, but won't let you into her bedroom.

Life is often frustrating, especiallly if you let your expectations dictate your reality.

Creepy Uncle has an uncomfortable level of entitlement.

There's a difference between pre-selling software functionality.....and smiling at people.



Only 1 of them owes you anything.

 

[aaron0k]

How did you parlay "brand new hardware with increased power and capabilities" into a "recall"?

That increased 'power' isn't really for 'you'. What increased capabilities are you getting that you didn't already think you would get?

Service Visit. Replace incapable part with capable part. Return to customer. != Recall?

Tesla originally claimed they could do L5 with AP2 HW. They must have realized they couldn't (reliably/safely/cost effectively), so they designed 2.5 then 3. The psychology is; you're just getting the capabilities you pre-paid for in the first place (in the end?). Better to call it a free upgrade than a recall...

Really nothing wrong with that, again I commend them. Though, I suspect by the time FSD is ready, 3.0 HW will be surpassed.

At any rate, this entire thread is "I'm going to justify my purchasing decision by telling people how ignorant they are for not making the same decision I made." Buy it, don't buy it, whatever. To each their own.

I don't have much skin in this debate. FSD isn't an option for me, I'm on AP1 and happy with it (nags suck). Just debating the subject of the thread.

Those who are pre-purchasing FSD really are making an investment in its development for all of us... sort of like the gratitude we owe the original Roadster owners.

 

[Knightshade]

You mentioned that as far as you knew, he never claimed such a thing.

In the specific talk you said he claimed it in- when he announced what AP would actually do as he announced its release.

And turns out in that talk he didn't claim it would ever do that (or the stop sign thing you claimed he said either)


Now you've found a different talk where he "thinks" it "will" do a different thing some time in the future. (and we know how accurate Elon is about timelines).

I was just giving you proof that he had, in that same time frame, and well before AP2... semantics?

Your didn't do that though.

You showed proof he said something a bit different from your original claim.

Let's be clear here:

My post said "(and exiting freeways wasn't mentioned, AFAIK, until EAP with the AP2 HW- which is going to get it with drive on nav)"

Your reply tried to suggest Elon DID mention that (though not in the talk you originally claimed he said it) in this other talk.

What he ACTUALLY SAID was "I think we're making some really good progress on the autopilot side and it, you know I'm confident that in less than a year you'll be able to go from highway on-ramp to highway exit without touching any controls "

That says nothing about EXITING the freeway.

it says it would get you TO the highway EXIT.

Which AP already does. And has for years.

You then need to manually take said exit and drive from there. (though allegedly drive on nav will even do that part for you shortly).


So again you seem to keep wanting to claim Elon said things he never said.


And if you really do want to get semantic- You need not touch any "controls" to actually do this while it's on the highway.

While on AP holding your hand on the wheel isn't controlling anything at all- it's simply verifying it's ok for the AP system to keep doing its job rather than handing control back...and only because of the nag/liability thing.

He said it to Tesla shareholders... (that's not official enough?)... and said he was "confident" (aka "funding secured")... <don't forget the crowd applauding the claim>

And again- he was right. AP does what he actually said it would.

Adding the "steering wheel thing", means it wasn't designed well, was rushed

... no, it really doesn't.

If the system requires hands on the wheel/driver attention, you need a way to verify this.

in fact most car makers offering any similar system (BMW for example) does the exact same thing- sensors on the wheel to verify the driver is still paying attention.

The only system that does it differently is Caddy... they use an interior facing camera to verify you're looking at the road, but not that you're touching the wheel.

Which is neat. Also a little creepy.

It does let them advertise theirs is the only "hands off" system... but personally if something the car can't handle suddenly appears, I think a driver is likely safer with their hands already on the wheel than simply staring ahead.

YMMV I suppose.

, and didn't consider that "stupid people" exist.

I suppose you can say Tesla was optimistic people would actually use the system correctly.

Their bad there I guess.

I also believe Tesla is morally corrupt for not requiring Autopilot safety training before activation.

I mean- people are entitled to their opinions I suppose.

Others are entitled to literally point and laugh at those opinions too.

You can interpret Elon's words anyway you want, but I just see it as a way to justify the constant hyperbole and false claims coming from him.

I see it as comparing what he actually said with what you claimed he said and noticing the two don't match.

So I agree there's false claims, but so far they're from you.

As it relates to this thread, I've think I've made my case that buying FSD now is either really stupid, or highly philanthropic...

Or you'd rather get the upgraded AP3 hardware and first FSD features in a few months for 3k instead of pay $5000 or more later for it.

 

[aaron0k]

I mean- people are entitled to their opinions I suppose.

Others are entitled to literally point and laugh at those opinions too.

Agreed.

 

[daniel]

Ok so, again, some of you seem to be missing the part where ITS ILLEGAL TO SELL THINGS YOU DONT INTEND TO DELIVER.

But Elon does intend to deliver all the things he says. He's just unrealistically optimistic. I do think that Tesla should have chosen a more appropriate name for the FSD package. Unfortunately, autosteer is already called "enhanced" autopilot. Maybe the FSD package should have been called More Enhanced Autopilot.

The real issue is that Elon actually believed he could deliver full self-driving on the 2018 cars and do so in a reasonable time frame. Just as he believes he can establish a colony on Mars in a decade or two. It is a serious problem when the CEO has unrealistic expectations, but it is not fraud when he truly believes the things he says.

It's a case of buyer beware: Buy a Tesla for what it can do today, not for what Elon says it will be able to do in a year.

 

[bluelines]

In early August, Elon said the Autopilot 3.0 hardware would debut with the first FSD-exclusive software features in 4 to 6 months (i.e., 6 to 12 months in Elon speak), and would be a free upgrade for those that purchased the FSD option.

I paid for FSD because I love technology and I want access to all new Tesla software features / improvements. You don’t get that without the FSD option.

True, but since FSD has been on the market, not a single buyer has received a single feature in return for their cash (i.e. there is no precedent for anyone getting some kind of truly privileged access to Tesla software features). So you have to assume that what Elon said in August is, unlike many of his other statements, accurate and not wildly optimistic. So far you've paid for FSD and received nothing.

Even ignoring the weasel word tactic of Elon going from talking about FSD to "FSD features," I think it's reaching a bit to believe these features will be anything close to the initial promises being fulfilled.

 

[Thunder7ga]

My logic on not buying it this time around on the 3 was that I felt we are several years away from federal, state and local governments from allowing FSD. Maybe on the next Tesla I buy in a few more years I’ll think about it.

 

[daniel]

I'll buy an FSD car when there's a car that has FSD.

 

[N5329K]

I'll buy an FSD car when there's a car that has FSD.

...and a place where you can actually use it.
Robin

 

[Knightshade]

...and a place where you can actually use it.
Robin

You can actually use it lots of places. Today.

Many states have passed laws explicitly allowing them on public roads (with various guidelines varying by state).

Waymos been doing lots of self driving cars in AZ for example over tons of miles, on public roads.

Their solution is more like level 4- since it's FSD, but only in a limited domain (specific town in AZ).

I expect you'll see that sort of thing more and more... for example my thinking with Tesla is the first real FSD is going to essentially be EAP without needing to touch the wheel or "pay attention" on the highway... basically a level 4 FSD in the same domain they're already best at.

That certainly seems far easier to solve for than dealing with complex city intersections with cross traffic, unprotected turns, pedestrians, bikes, etc.

 

[Daniel in SD]

I expect you'll see that sort of thing more and more... for example my thinking with Tesla is the first real FSD is going to essentially be EAP without needing to touch the wheel or "pay attention" on the highway... basically a level 4 FSD in the same domain they're already best at.

Customer: I was using EAP and the car crashed in to a gore point and I died.
Tesla: You should have bought the FSD software upgrade!
Doesn’t seem realistic to me unless there is hardware upgrade required for FSD. I feel like not running in to things is a safety feature and Tesla has said that they won’t charge for safety feautures.

 

[jcasetnl]

The Stockholm syndrome in this thread is interesting:

1. You KNOW Elon over-promises...

2. Paying for FSD wasn't a guarantee of ever getting it. You should be happy with just funding it's development and "the mission".

3. It doesn't matter what 'FSD' implies. It's your fault if you assumed that meant full level 5.

 

[N5329K]

You can actually use it lots of places. Today.

Many states have passed laws explicitly allowing them on public roads (with various guidelines varying by state).

Waymos been doing lots of self driving cars in AZ for example over tons of miles, on public roads.

Their solution is more like level 4- since it's FSD, but only in a limited domain (specific town in AZ).

I expect you'll see that sort of thing more and more... for example my thinking with Tesla is the first real FSD is going to essentially be EAP without needing to touch the wheel or "pay attention" on the highway... basically a level 4 FSD in the same domain they're already best at.

That certainly seems far easier to solve for than dealing with complex city intersections with cross traffic, unprotected turns, pedestrians, bikes, etc.

Level 4 is certainly useful in some places today. The OP's regret was about buying FSD.
Robin

 

[daniel]

...and a place where you can actually use it.
Robin

You can actually use it lots of places. Today.

Not quite true. There are states that allow developers to run testing. As a consumer you cannot buy a self-driving car today. And companies will not be allowed to sell self-driving cars until those cars are street-legal in the jurisdiction where they're being sold. So Robin's point is moot.

FWIW, I love the EAP in my car. It's not full self-driving, but it is limited, partial self-driving. I.e., level 2 autonomy. I have to remain alert and ready to take over, but the car does the actual work of staying in its lane and controlling its speed, and it does it amazingly well about 95% of the time on the highway and maybe half the time in the city.

I think we might see level 3 in five years, and if I have to pay for the "FSD Package" to get level 3, I'll pay for it.

I love this car, but I don't believe Tesla will develop full self-driving technology and get it into cars on the road within ten years, and by then, if I'm still alive and kicking, I'll be ready for a new car with hardware we haven't thought of yet. The Tesla I buy in ten years from now will have better materials, better safety technology, and better autopilot sensors and computers than my Model 3 has now. So why pay for FSD today when I won't own this car when FSD comes?

 

[Knightshade]

Customer: I was using EAP and the car crashed in to a gore point and I died.
Tesla: You should have bought the FSD software upgrade!
Doesn’t seem realistic to me unless there is hardware upgrade required for FSD. I feel like not running in to things is a safety feature and Tesla has said that they won’t charge for safety feautures.

I mean, I'm not sure what you don't find realistic...other than the part where the dead guy is talking I mean


Today when an accident on EAP happens Tesla tells you "Driver should have been paying attention. Since EAP explicitly states it's your responsibility to do that"

So no change at all from present day and what they actually say when that happens.

FSD isn't a safety feature. Once it's providing genuine L4 or L5 then it's an entirely different methodology for controlling the car- the driver is not required or expected to be paying attention, and not required to take over at a moments notice (or ever- outside of when an L4 car leaves its domain).

 

[Knightshade]

Not quite true. There are states that allow developers to run testing. As a consumer you cannot buy a self-driving car today.

The point was there are states that explicitly allow self driving cars no matter who owns or runs them, so long as they comply with all state laws. No requirement for it to be a "developer" car or anything like that.

So the remark "I won't buy one until there's a place I can legally drive it" was nonsensical- since there's already places you can do so. That nobody's selling one yet is the issue- not that you can't drive it once they do.

FWIW, I love the EAP in my car. It's not full self-driving, but it is limited, partial self-driving. I.e., level 2 autonomy. I have to remain alert and ready to take over, but the car does the actual work of staying in its lane and controlling its speed, and it does it amazingly well about 95% of the time on the highway and maybe half the time in the city.

I agree... it's literally the reason I bought the car.

I think we might see level 3 in five years, and if I have to pay for the "FSD Package" to get level 3, I'll pay for it.

Level 3 is already here.

Well- not here... Europe. The 2019 Audi A8.

Remember L3 can be domain restricted like L4 can.

I expect we'll see domain restricted L4 in a lot less than 5 years. Less than 1 if you want to be technical- It's basically what Waymo already has working in Arizona. Today.

So what you're gonna start to see in the next 5 years is simply level 3 and level 4 cars that are capable of that in more domains than we have today.

The example I gave is basically EAP that handles freeway changes better and that you don't need to keep hands on wheel for on the highway- which is level 3 or 4 depending on if Tesla expects you to be able to take over "eventually" (L3) or not need to at all till you are exiting (level 4).

That seems the most likely first "version" of FSD we'll see.

L5 on the other hand, I'd be surprised if we see THAT in 5 years, Probably be considerably longer.

I love this car, but I don't believe Tesla will develop full self-driving technology and get it into cars on the road within ten years, and by then, if I'm still alive and kicking, I'll be ready for a new car with hardware we haven't thought of yet. The Tesla I buy in ten years from now will have better materials, better safety technology, and better autopilot sensors and computers than my Model 3 has now. So why pay for FSD today when I won't own this car when FSD comes?

See above. If they can give me L4 on highways (or even L3) the 3k pre-purchase for FSD is a steal and a half.

Anything more than that is gravy.

 

[aaron0k]

The Stockholm syndrome in this thread is interesting:

1. You KNOW Elon over-promises...

2. Paying for FSD wasn't a guarantee of ever getting it. You should be happy with just funding it's development and "the mission".

3. It doesn't matter what 'FSD' implies. It's your fault if you assumed that meant full level 5.

@ 15:30

"Ok, so by the end of the year, you're saying, someone's going to sit in a Tesla without touching the steering wheel, tap in "New York" off it goes, won't ever have to touch the wheel by the end of 2017?" - Chris

"Yeah. Essentially, November or December of this year we should be able to go all the way from a parking lot in California to a parking lot in New York, no controls touched at any point during the journey." <crowd applause> - Elon 5/2017
​

 

[Bet TSLA]

It's a case of buyer beware: Buy a Tesla for what it can do today, not for what Elon says it will be able to do in a year.

I did. A Tesla today supports firmware updates. That means that given sufficient hardware it can become much, much better at all auto-pilot features in time. That's worth a lot to me.

As I said before, people who want to live dull lives should continue to insist on fully working systems before they ever buy or use them. In fact, these people should avoid updates of any kind. After all, if you insist on getting exactly the car you think you bought, then you certainly can't want any changes at all.