Sub 3 seconds for Model 3 DL

[J1mbo]

I don't think I need to say anything except - ABSOLUTELY.
View attachment 191837

Based on this datasheet, the bigger cells have lower energy density than the 18650s (datasheet) - 224wh/kg vs 243Wh/kg - unless Panasonic have a new chemisty which hasn't been disclosed yet. It is unlikely that they are the key to a 100kWh M3 unless the battery is twice the height of the MS battery.

The advantage to Tesla of the new format is that they should be cheaper to make. As M3 is all about low cost, this is not too surprising...

More efficient packaging and thermal management seem to be big factors behind the (expected) range increase of the P100DL, and no doubt this approach will be used in the M3 to keep costs & weight down.

IMO it is entirely possible that the Luda M3 will have a smaller version of the P100DL's pack, complete with 18650s.

 

[malcolm]

So far, Tesla (not to mention Elon) have been remarkably restrained with the 3's numbers - quoting a sub 6 second 0 to 60 along with the promise of a Ludicrous option for those who prefer to select their pants from Fall/Autumnal hues.

Meanwhile the S and the X are pushed toward a Ludicrous-er 2.5 and 2.9!

At this rate, will there be any point in bothering with Plaid?

2018/19 is supposed to be when other car makers launch their S-killers, but these vehicles were aiming to beat a pre-facelift 2015/6 S which is no longer in production. Who in their right mind was expecting to counter a sub-3 second SUV?

I'm guessing that Elon will use Part Deux to reveal numbers for the 3 which, once again will cause greater headaches for competitors and maintain Tesla as impossible-to-ignore and worth-the-wait.

 

[mhan00]

Yes Tech Guy, but the roadster was the money maker before the S and X. The roadster funded the S and the X.

Now the S and X is funding the 3. ( new money maker )

Then the 3 is going to fund the ..........?

The 3 is supposed to fund the entire company and keep it alive for the rest of the part 2 master plan. Not to mention the rumored Y model and pickup trucks. And then there's the factories they want to build in China and Europe. Oh, and additional Giga factories. Plus there's the superchargers and service centers they're absolutely going to have to set up to address the increasing numbers of cars they're hoping to put on the road. Service centers are already slammed with cars now, it'll only get much, much worse when Tesla has tripled their current manufacturing rate.

Tesla 's desperate need for money doesn't magically end with the Model 3 release

 

[Alketi]

Based on this datasheet, the bigger cells have lower energy density than the 18650s (datasheet) - 224wh/kg vs 243Wh/kg - unless Panasonic have a new chemisty which hasn't been disclosed yet. It is unlikely that they are the key to a 100kWh M3 unless the battery is twice the height of the MS battery.

I strongly suspect that neither the 18650 nor the 2170 batteries are using off-the shelf chemistries that can be bought on Amazon, for example. This is the realm of a highly proprietary, specific design.

Tesla has also confirmed that the 2170 will be using a different chemistry than the current 18650 cell.

 

[J1mbo]

I strongly suspect that neither the 18650 nor the 2170 batteries are using off-the shelf chemistries that can be bought on Amazon, for example. This is the realm of a highly proprietary, specific design.

Tesla has also confirmed that the 2170 will be using a different chemistry than the current 18650 cell.

The 18650 I linked to is the "B" variant which Tesla used in their 85 packs.

Have you got a link where Telsa confirm new chemistry? EM mentioned a "30% increase" at the GF launch, but that relates to the volumetric size of the cell (would be a significant breakthrough if he meant ED).

 

[JeffK]

Luda M3

You mean this?

 

[J1mbo]

You mean this?

Nah, that's a 750 Alpina

 

[JeffK]

Nah, that's a 750 Alpina

Haha I was too lazy to photoshop his face onto a proper BMW M3

 

[Alketi]

The 18650 I linked to is the "B" variant which Tesla used in their 85 packs.

Have you got a link where Telsa confirm new chemistry? EM mentioned a "30% increase" at the GF launch, but that relates to the volumetric size of the cell (would be a significant breakthrough if he meant ED).

They're using the B with no modifications?

Elon/JB repeated upon the 100kWh introduction (last week) that no chemistry changes were made to reach 100kWh -- that chemistry changes would take place for the 2170. I don't have a link, but you should be able to find it with some searching.

 

[Garlan Garner]

This is true but I'm sure investors want to finally see some profit margins. Most options are not not overpriced. I sure hope ludicrous isn't 10k though.

Absolutely - Investors have had profit margins for a long time. That's why the investments are being made by investors. Large scale investors don't make investments based on hopes and dreams. They make investments based on projected data.

 

[Garlan Garner]

They're using the B with no modifications?

Elon/JB repeated upon the 100kWh introduction (last week) that no chemistry changes were made to reach 100kWh -- that chemistry changes would take place for the 2170. I don't have a link, but you should be able to find it with some searching.

Exactly. The 100kWh upgrade was achieved because of advancements in cooling which allowed them to place the cells closer - thereby being able to fit more cells in.

 

[malcolm]

Some links:

Cell chemistry, from about a year ago: Charged EVs | Tesla tweaks its battery chemistry: a closer look at silicon anode development

Cell cooling, from a few days ago: What makes the Tesla 100 kWh battery so different?

 

[J1mbo]

Cell cooling, from a few days ago: What makes the Tesla 100 kWh battery so different?

As I said back in April...

One area of improvement which would save weight and energy could be battery cooling - Patent 20150244036 describes a heat pipe system for cooling & heating which I don't remember seeing in a Model S battery, and Patent 20140193683 describes a "battery pack base heat exchanger". Are we seeing some of this tech already in the Powerpack modules...?

 

[sitter_k]

Tesla Motors will not limit, compromise, cripple, or otherwise gimp the Model ☰ to protect the Model S. There is no viable reason for such an action. People will buy what they want, need, and can afford. AUDI A4 outsells A8 L, BMW 3-Series outsells 7-Series, Jaguar XE will outsell XJ, Lexus IS outsells LS, Mercedes C-Class outsells S-Class. That is by design, on purpose, and fully expected. Those are the cars that pay the bills, keep the lights on, and allow those traditional automobile manufacturers the flow of cash necessary to pursue their true passion with high end vehicles. If Tesla Motors' sub-$40,000 cars were being outsold by their over $66,000 cars that have an average sale price of around $105,000 there would be something seriously wrong. The Model ☰ and other Tesla Generation III vehicles have been the goal of the company for the past ten-plus years. They are not a nuisance or an afterthought, but the very reason the company exists.

Think of it this way... Tesla Motors originally intended to sell something on the order of 15,000 of the Model S per year. At that rate, they sold one-and-a-half years worth of cars in 2013... Then two years worth of cars in 2014... Another three years worth of cars in 2015... And are on a pace to sell four years worth of cars in 2016... So, by the end of this year, only four-and-a-half years into an eight year product cycle, they will have sold over 11 years worth of cars. Don't worry about the Model S. It has done its job.

Because Tesla Motors will not compromise on the Model ☰, come this time of year two years from now, they will have Delivered those cars at a rate to match over 11 years worth of Chevrolet BOLT Production. Remember the Mission. It is better to sell ten Model ☰ with a 12% margin than one Model S with a 25% margin. Even if the Model S were to somehow drop to 'only' 45,000 units per year, that is still three times as much as they had intended to build per annum anyway. It is also far more than Porsche will ever manage with the Panamera, Audi will get out of the A8 L, or BMW can hope for from the 7-Series.

Tesla Motors is WINNING.

I hope your prediction reins true, and I agree with most of what you said. Entry luxury models outsell their larger counterparts for sure but those larger models all have features not found in the entry model. Is Ludacris that sort of feature? Only Tesla knows.
Second almost all potential or future customers of a product will urge price setters to keep the price low in order to increase the volume. "Make the price 25% lower and you'll sell 60% more!" True or disingenuous? Maybe Teslas yearly capacity is only Y and if Y+100 want a car it might not be feasible to increase capacity for only 100 more sales. Thus it might work to just increase the price. We don't have the numbers only Tesla knows.

 

[wallet.dat]

At the very least I hope the Mod3 can out-60 a Tesla SUV.

 

[dsvick]

I hope your prediction reins true, and I agree with most of what you said. Entry luxury models outsell their larger counterparts for sure but those larger models all have features not found in the entry model. Is Ludacris that sort of feature? Only Tesla knows.

No, we all know. Elon already said the M3 would have ludicrous. Watch Out: Tesla Model 3 Will Have Ludicrous Mode

Second almost all potential or future customers of a product will urge price setters to keep the price low in order to increase the volume. "Make the price 25% lower and you'll sell 60% more!" True or disingenuous? Maybe Teslas yearly capacity is only Y and if Y+100 want a car it might not be feasible to increase capacity for only 100 more sales. Thus it might work to just increase the price. We don't have the numbers only Tesla knows.

People that say drop the price and you'll sell more generally don't understand the economics of why you can't always drop the price.

The current (as it was last reported) reservation number of 373,000 is roughly 7 times what Tesla produced in 2015, and is over 4 times what they plan to produce this year. Even given the accelerated production ramp for the M3, they won't be able to clear the existing reservations (if they all become orders) until sometime in 2018, and that assumes no additional reservations come in. With all that being said, Tesla has no desire to increase the price to reduce demand. Firstly, they said it would be a $35,000 base price so they can't raise that. Secondly, their goal isn't to simply sell vehicles, it is to sell electric vehicles to promote sustainable transportation, tothat end they will always try to sell as many as they can.

 

[beakmeister]

So the batteries in series give you the voltage. The batteries in parallel give you the current. The total (series x parallel) gives you the battery capacity. So if the smaller car size holds a smaller battery, and the voltage is fixed, then the amperage will be lower and hence smaller power output. That said, batteries keep getting better.

The smaller car will likely also have smaller wheels, and say what you will about force applied normal to a smooth surface being independent of surface area, a road is not smooth, and I expect lower forces will be possible on smaller tires. That said, tires can be changed out to a limit of the wheel well (without looking unorthodox).

And as noted the car will be lighter. But I don't think the ludicrous mode in the model 3 will hit sub 3 at least for the first couple of production years. I will be happy to be proven wrong.

 

[Garlan Garner]

So the batteries in series give you the voltage. The batteries in parallel give you the current. The total (series x parallel) gives you the battery capacity. So if the smaller car size holds a smaller battery, and the voltage is fixed, then the amperage will be lower and hence smaller power output. That said, batteries keep getting better.

The smaller car will likely also have smaller wheels, and say what you will about force applied normal to a smooth surface being independent of surface area, a road is not smooth, and I expect lower forces will be possible on smaller tires. That said, tires can be changed out to a limit of the wheel well (without looking unorthodox).

And as noted the car will be lighter. But I don't think the ludicrous mode in the model 3 will hit sub 3 at least for the first couple of production years. I will be happy to be proven wrong.

Get ready to be happy.

I'll be happy in 18 months.

 

[JeffK]

So the batteries in series give you the voltage. The batteries in parallel give you the current. The total (series x parallel) gives you the battery capacity. So if the smaller car size holds a smaller battery, and the voltage is fixed, then the amperage will be lower and hence smaller power output. That said, batteries keep getting better.

The smaller car will likely also have smaller wheels, and say what you will about force applied normal to a smooth surface being independent of surface area, a road is not smooth, and I expect lower forces will be possible on smaller tires. That said, tires can be changed out to a limit of the wheel well (without looking unorthodox).

And as noted the car will be lighter. But I don't think the ludicrous mode in the model 3 will hit sub 3 at least for the first couple of production years. I will be happy to be proven wrong.

Smaller battery at a fixed voltage does NOT mean lower current (see numerous high performance EVs such as Zombie 222 etc). Cells in parallel means additional energy at the same voltage.

With more batteries in parallel you can more safely draw more current though.

Here's a small primer
Serial and Parallel Battery Configurations and Information

 

[Cloxxki]

These two particular Panasonic cells barely differ in Wh/L. 2.5%. tesla has been alluding to 10%, before any chemistry update.
I doubt these public Panasonic cells are very relavant for Current Model S/X cells, let alone upcoming Model 3. Even the dimensions may be differt. 20.35mm max is called a 21?