Summary of Model 3 Related Info From Shareholder Letter

[dhanson865]

If they somehow produced 5,000 vehicles a week starting September 1st. That would be 80,000 total for 2017. After you account for employees and current owners I do not see new buyers getting a car.

Based on those statements I could see 500 per week starting September 1st, adding 500 per week giving them 6,000/week in late December. That would only be 39,000 cars produced in 2017.

What am I missing here?

The end of a sentence.

You don't see them getting a car (what goes here?). Ever? This year? On a Tuesday with a Hamburger? In a box with a fox?

 

[dhanson865]

"..volume production in September". What does that mean?

I would say volume production is when the run rate is above 1000 per week per S / X / 3. They probably consider hundreds per week to be still in the ramping up phase and anything that slows another line wouldn't be considered a volume production move.

 

[yesup]

If it has HUD, I hope it is better than in a BMW. I had to turn that distractingly bright thing off to prevent me from going crazy.

BTW, you can adjust the brightness and the tilt of the BMW HUD display.

 

[mmd]

The blog post was posted March 21st 2016... that was nearly a year ago. After seeing the reservations flood in after the 31st, everything changed. The ramp up was moved two years sooner, Elon set an "impossible" deadline of July 1st, 2017 for suppliers, fully expecting (hopefully) minor delays. He mentioned that they are going to work closely with suppliers every step of the way to help prevent delays. They even cancelled an order from a supplier who wasn't up to par.

As of the financial call this week, Elon seems optimistic that they might actually hit somewhere near the date he said would be "impossible."

Overall, things are looking good.

Yes, it is strange that production and ramp up dates are pulled forward, but reveal date is pushed back. I wish Tesla good luck with this vertical ramp. FYI, here is the Bolt prototype testing back in June 2015. Volume deliveries began in Dec 2016 with 579 cars in Dec. GM also had a PHEV (Volt) and pure EV (Spark), so it's not like Bolt was their first electric car.
Chevy Bolt EV Prototype Electric Cars Now Testing In Public

There are $664M in customer deposits as of Dec 31th.
Assuming the backlog for the MX is near zero, we are talking about M3 reservations at what? Nearly 600,000?

Why would you make such an assumption? As I posted in another thread, average of customer deposits reported over 7 quarters ending Q1 of 2016 was $278M. I stopped there, as from Q2'16 deposits got muddled with the M3 deposits.
Orders have grown 45% since last year. If you subtract this low estimate of $278M deposit for S/X, you get a better picture.

 

[FlatSix911]

Welcome to the state of Kalifornia ...how many low income buyers are interested in a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle?

Don't forget about the new CA Clean Vehicle Rebate Project rules. Elon was very upset about this on the conference call...
California Clean Vehicle Rebate Project Initiates New Eligibility Requirements
Rebates for lower-income buyers:

• $4,500 for battery electric vehicles
• $3,500 for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles
• $7,000 for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles
• Note: To qualify as a lower-income buyer, gross annual income limit for an individual is $35,640; for household of four, $72,900

• 
  

 

[alseTrick]

Easy, because it isn't required. I don't think Mini's had anything in front of the driver either.

Old school Minis or the current ones?

 

[maekuz]

Yes, it is strange that production and ramp up dates are pulled forward, but reveal date is pushed back. I wish Tesla good luck with this vertical ramp. FYI, here is the Bolt prototype testing back in June 2015. Volume



Why would you make such an assumption? As I posted in another thread, average of customer deposits reported over 7 quarters ending Q1 of 2016 was $278M. I stopped there, as from Q2'16 deposits got muddled with the M3 deposits.
Orders have grown 45% since last year. If you subtract this low estimate of $278M deposit for S/X, you get a better picture.

Yes, it is strange that production and ramp up dates are pulled forward, but reveal date is pushed back. I wish Tesla good luck with this vertical ramp. FYI, here is the Bolt prototype testing back in June 2015. Volume deliveries began in Dec 2016 with 579 cars in Dec. GM also had a PHEV (Volt) and pure EV (Spark), so it's not like Bolt was their first electric car.
Chevy Bolt EV Prototype Electric Cars Now Testing In Public



Why would you make such an assumption? As I posted in another thread, average of customer deposits reported over 7 quarters ending Q1 of 2016 was $278M. I stopped there, as from Q2'16 deposits got muddled with the M3 deposits.
Orders have grown 45% since last year. If you subtract this low estimate of $278M deposit for S/X, you get a better picture.

The $278M deposits included the backlog of the MX (@ $5,000 each). Current deposits for MS and MX are $2,500 for each order. Delivery times are down to roughly a month, so even with a 45% increase in orders the deposits for MS and MS must be way down from $278M.

 

[S3XY]

Welcome to the state of Kalifornia ...how many low income buyers are interested in a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle?

All of the ones that live right next to a gridlocked freeway.

 

[Wolverinegeoff]

All of the ones that live right next to a gridlocked freeway.

I haven't lived in CA for a few years now, but are there actually convenient places to fill these up??

 

[S3XY]

I haven't lived in CA for a few years now, but are there actually convenient places to fill these up??

How would I know? I live in Buffalo. My point was just that tax credits for new technology doesn't only benefit the recipient of the credit. EV tax credits, for example, increase demand/ownership which decreases pollution and greenhouse gases. We all benefit from that.