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Project Highland (Investor impact etc.)
- Thread starter Buckminster
- Start date
Treat this as highly speculative, but there is a slim chance that the production line investors will be touring March 1 is a Highland line.
Up to now I assumed that it would be the Cybertruck line, but it is slightly strange that vague words were used to describe the line.
The photo of the Gigafactory Shanghai body shop in the Q4 investor letter is also interesting. It seems like a very dense packing of Robots all perhaps working on a car at the same time. It seems different to the original Model 3 body shop?
Up to now I assumed that it would be the Cybertruck line, but it is slightly strange that vague words were used to describe the line.
The photo of the Gigafactory Shanghai body shop in the Q4 investor letter is also interesting. It seems like a very dense packing of Robots all perhaps working on a car at the same time. It seems different to the original Model 3 body shop?
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Seems to me if they have a “Highland”/ new assembly line operating, that is what they will be showing to investors.
Also, the car with a dozen robots picture is quite interesting. Looks like a bunch of surgeons on a patient. That’s a lot of heavy equipment in a small area.
This is my thoughts on why March 1 is potentially different to battery Day and the AI days.
(I am thinking of posting it in the main thread, what do you guys think?)
1) Relevance - the presentation is literally about expanding the company, growing revenues, making more EVs, and making EVs more affordable. The purpose isn't hard to understand and it should be relevant to investors and markets.
FUD attack angle - they will run with the usual "it is a distraction", but that is a harder sell than Battery Day or AI Day
2) Comprehensive the plan is likely to be outlined in detail, what they will do and how they will do it.
I expect that to include most of the following:-
- 4680 ramp progress and future plans
- Lithium processing and raw materials sourcing.
- Factory expansions / new factories.
- Model 3 Highland and Gen3 cars
- Ramp of megapack.
3) Achievable
- 70% of the plan is probably things Tesla is already doing, Tesla has done, or others have done.
- 20% of the plan is probably things that are a simple extension of what Tesla is doing and don't require any significant new technologies.
- 10% of the plan many involve some new technologies but Tesla may have already prototyped/tested/proven these in advance e.g. 4680 LFP.
(The parts below I probably will not put in the main thread - will cause too much argument and jumping down the rabbit hole)
Highland Name - a Highland Park Ford was trying to make transport affordable, Tesla is trying to make clean transport affordable. Apart from the addition of the word "clean" the aims and approaches are very similar. Tesla would be paying homage, and taking some inspiration from Ford. This name may make it easier for some to understand the relevance.
Where I think a working/prototype Highland assembly line would help is, with the FUD attack on achievable. That is consistent with the approach at battery Day and the AI days, show the current version of the line, and/or the products.
For the body-shop I think the highland line is some mix of front and rear castings and approaches already honed in Shanghai. Paint - time to paint and paint drying times are relevant, hopefully the new paint shop technology does a lot of the heavy lifting (or perhaps cars are unpainted). GA - my thoughts are, fewer assembly steps due to more preassembled sub-assemblies.
A wiring harness is one potential new technology, steer by wire and brake by wire are others.
They may be able to reduce time spent on the line not be increasing line speed, but by having fewer stations on the line and a shorter line. Effectively doing more useful work at each station.
Some of these ideas are stolen from the hints Connecting the Dots has already dropped, it will be interesting to see what his next video says.
I think MP3 is coming on investor day. Master Plan Part 1 is largely complete. MP2 is still very much WIP.
Here is a quick review of MP2.
Create stunning solar roofs with seamlessly integrated battery storage
This seems to be coming slowly. Battery storage has come together, but not clear if solar is scaling well and solar roof seems to be a bit sluggish?
Expand the electric vehicle product line to address all major segments
Still getting there. This is 6+ years old and Cybertruck was on that list. I'll be out mid year. Semi is out. MP2 suggests that a cheaper car than the Model 3 won't be needed due to autonomy, but it seems like that has changed. I think they need at least a couple sizes of vans as well. Some people want a large SUV, but I think there is a ton of overlap between van and an SUV and they could get away with just one "Big box/ 3 row vehicle"
Develop a self-driving capability that is 10X safer than manual via massive fleet learning
Still getting there.
Enable your car to make money for you when you aren't using it
This depends on the prior step.
Here is a quick review of MP2.
Create stunning solar roofs with seamlessly integrated battery storage
This seems to be coming slowly. Battery storage has come together, but not clear if solar is scaling well and solar roof seems to be a bit sluggish?
Expand the electric vehicle product line to address all major segments
Still getting there. This is 6+ years old and Cybertruck was on that list. I'll be out mid year. Semi is out. MP2 suggests that a cheaper car than the Model 3 won't be needed due to autonomy, but it seems like that has changed. I think they need at least a couple sizes of vans as well. Some people want a large SUV, but I think there is a ton of overlap between van and an SUV and they could get away with just one "Big box/ 3 row vehicle"
Develop a self-driving capability that is 10X safer than manual via massive fleet learning
Still getting there.
Enable your car to make money for you when you aren't using it
This depends on the prior step.
Master Plan Part 3
Seems like this is going to be part new stuff and partly patching Master Plan Part Deux. I think MP3 will focus more on scaling up production and Highland and leave the portions about AVs in MP2. This is the part of the plan where Tesla explains how they get to 20m vehicles/ year by 2030. I think there will also be goals tied to Tesla Energy and Storage as part of it, but the investor day I think will be focused on automobiles.It is important to stress that this thread is IMO highly speculative, we are just throwing some ideas up in the air, and seeing if any of them float..
Now on to the next bit of speculation..
There are some covered cars at Austin that show up of Joe's videos, Joe has been told they are waiting for glass, and I believe that is probably true.
At the same time new Model Ys are rolling off the production line with all of their glass.
This is a situation where there are multiple plausible explanations, one explanation is that the glass is available, but it will take time for the available workforce to rectify the situation.
The other remotely possible explanation is that these cars are Highland builds, and they need slightly different sized/shaped glass.
Regardless, I see the frameless glass doors on a Model 3 as an area of cost that could potentially be optimised for a mass market car.
Now on to the next bit of speculation..
There are some covered cars at Austin that show up of Joe's videos, Joe has been told they are waiting for glass, and I believe that is probably true.
At the same time new Model Ys are rolling off the production line with all of their glass.
This is a situation where there are multiple plausible explanations, one explanation is that the glass is available, but it will take time for the available workforce to rectify the situation.
The other remotely possible explanation is that these cars are Highland builds, and they need slightly different sized/shaped glass.
Regardless, I see the frameless glass doors on a Model 3 as an area of cost that could potentially be optimised for a mass market car.
This Dr Know it All video contains more evidence that Connecting the Dots is possibly right about many things, including surprisingly the Model Tau name.
The first 2/3 of the video are on Robots, the Tesla stuff is toward the end.
I'm now thinking Connecting the Dots might be right about Cybertruck having steer-by-wire and brake-by-wire.
If Cybertruck or Highland has this there is a very good chance that the other one also has it, more reason to have the initial Highland line at Austin.
If true, then Cybertruck has elements of a Highland construction process, perhaps to the extent that Cybertruck can demonstrate some aspects of the Highland build process.
I'm sure Cybertruck will take advantage of Tesla's latest assembly line techniques and cost savings measures. Of all their (existing/ announced) products, it is the one with the largest need for cost savings. I've always thought of Teslas as robots with wheels. From the sounds of it, Tesla is moving them even further away from cars and closer to robots.
I'm curious if Tesla is every going to move away from metal skinned vehicles and into composite materials to save weight.
I'm curious if Tesla is every going to move away from metal skinned vehicles and into composite materials to save weight.
FWIW, I was rewatching the Berlin assembly line fly through and it looks like there are existing places where robot density is near this high. Hard to see with the drone going through at 20MPH but it's definitely at least 6-8 in one huddle.
