Tesla Network / Robotaxi Business Model

[MC3OZ]

I played around with scaling a Robotaxi Ffeet.

	New Cars	Fleet Size	Income
2024​	100,000​	0​	0​
2025​	266000​	100,000​	1,000,000,000
2026​	541560​	366,000​	3,660,000,000
2027​	998990​	907,560​	9,075,600,000
2028​	1658323​	1,906,550​	9,075,600,000
2029​	2752816​	3,564,873​	35,648,730,000
2030​	4569675​	6,317,689​	63,176,890,000
3031​	5000000​	10,887,364​	108,873,640,000
3032​	5000000​	15,887,364​	158,873,640,000
3033​	7500000​	20,887,364​	208,873,640,000
2035​	10000000​	28,387,364​	283,873,640,000
2036​	10000000​	38,387,364​	383,873,640,000

Assumptions :- vehicles cost $15,000 to make and earn $10,000 profit per year, $30 per day after accounting for all other expenses.

Vehicles last 10-15 years no allowance for early retirements or attrition in the simplified model.

Tesla invests in building the fleet as follows:-

• 2024 - 1,5 B - 100,000
• 2025 - 3 B - 200,000
• 2026 - 4.5 B - 300,000
• 2027-2030 - 6B = 400,000
• After 2030 Robotaxi income builds the fleet with no additional funds required.

The other growth comes from reinvesting the $10,000 earned each year per taxi into fleet expansion, (fleet size * 0.66).

The long term target was 5M Robotaxis per year and a fleet size of 60 Million.

This model exceeds 5M per year by 2031, after that I intervene with direct production numbers which are less than the financial model would allow.

Expansion up to 10 Million per year is needed to accelerate building of the fleet, finance is no problem.

This shows the value of compounding reinvestment, and shows that it achieves results fast enough.

If Tesla invests more in building the fleet results are achieved earlier, but we need to allow for production ramps, regulatory approval and market demand.

After a while Robotaxis will build market demand and hasten regulatory approval.,

 

[Buckminster]

What competition?:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1603812193308491792

 

[Buckminster]

Uber doing well is great news for Tesla - they will be the first customers to sign-up.

 

[nativewolf]

That just seems nuts, Uber hemorrhages, waymo is getting licenses before Tesla, software is a long ways away, hardware is going to go through 2 more rounds, the market scale is completely unknown but all the shared services forms have pounded their head on demand in anything but big metro regions.

Waymo will likely be licensed in all the major USA cities before Tesla, they have a competent build partner and a parent that is loaded.

 

[Ogre]

Long distance Robotaxi is an interesting idea. The nearest airport to me is a regional so most destinations take 6+ hours to reach so often I just fly. For example:

Flying to Colorado:

• Drive to the airport: +15 minutes
• Arrive early for checkin and boarding: +45 minutes
• Flight to hub airport: +70 minutes
• Transfer/ wait for flight to final destination: +60 minutes
• Final Flight: +90 minutes
• Get luggage, Exit Airport: +45 minutes
• Get rental car: +20 minutes
• Drive to final destination: +20 minutes

So that's 6 hours of dealing with flying. Most of the time the day of a flight is just gone regardless. If I can make the same drive in 12 hours with less BS, just get in the car and let it drive me. If I could rent that same car for the week or do it in my own car, that super simple. If I can sleep in the car, I'd do it overnight.

 

[Hiline]

Long distance Robotaxi is an interesting idea. The nearest airport to me is a regional so most destinations take 6+ hours to reach so often I just fly. For example:

Flying to Colorado:

• Drive to the airport: +15 minutes
• Arrive early for checkin and boarding: +45 minutes
• Flight to hub airport: +70 minutes
• Transfer/ wait for flight to final destination: +60 minutes
• Final Flight: +90 minutes
• Get luggage, Exit Airport: +45 minutes
• Get rental car: +20 minutes
• Drive to final destination: +20 minutes

So that's 6 hours of dealing with flying. Most of the time the day of a flight is just gone regardless. If I can make the same drive in 12 hours with less BS, just get in the car and let it drive me. If I could rent that same car for the week or do it in my own car, that super simple. If I can sleep in the car, I'd do it overnight.

I would love to sleep in the trunk of my Model Y while it drives itself ... probably not good for safety, but I don't see any other way I could possibly sleep through the night inside a car.

 

[Ogre]

I’ve slept in the car on more than one occasion, just recline the seats way back. More comfortable/ sleep friendly seats would be a good feature for cars where you can safely sleep.

 

[Buckminster]

Eventually there will be different types of RTs:

1. Luggage/parcels
2. Dining
3. Sleeping
4. etc.

 

[Buckminster]

Tesla well placed to use AI to coordinate all RTs on the network to ensure customers don't wait long, RTs are repositioned for likely new business. Will also include parcel delivery and V2G for grid smoothing.

 

[Buckminster]

13 mins in - why Douma thinks Tesla won't be selling RTs:

 

[Buckminster]

Warren gets down to an incredible $0.04 per mile cost!

 

[Buckminster]

Lars offers an enticing angle on Tesla's coming advertising profit center juggernaut.

 

[EVNow]

What competition?:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1603812193308491792

Better to try private jets. Probably not for last minute, though ...

 

[Buckminster]

Elon Musk Just Unveiled His Vision for Tesla's Robotaxi -- Should Uber Be Worried? | The Motley Fool

 

[Chunky Jr.]

I can't imagine more than a few percent of people would opt to make their Tesla a robotaxi. Seems like Elon is assuming it would be almost everyone.

 

[tivoboy]

I can't imagine more than a few percent of people would opt to make their Tesla a robotaxi. Seems like Elon is assuming it would be almost everyone.

But it also doesn’t mean that the vehicle won’t be purchased specifically for this purpose… an Uber driver will buy a specific car just for driving an Uber and the revenue that generates by contributing their time (well and money) but with Robotaxi one could just buy the car, charge it up and let it go while you do something ELSE.

I don’t see it happening before 2025 at the earliest. Maybe some small pockets, geo fenced, obviously for now WEATHER restricted, but I don’t see fleets of them traveling around major metros till at least 2025

 

[Buckminster]

I can't imagine more than a few percent of people would opt to make their Tesla a robotaxi. Seems like Elon is assuming it would be almost everyone.

Why?

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Why?

Anecdotal - I certainly wouldn't do it. Lots of people are very uptight about their cars (washing/waxing all the time, don't let people eat in them, etc).

I want FSD to be my personal chauffeur. That is super compelling to me. Letting random people in my car and driving them wherever? No thanks.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

But it also doesn’t mean that the vehicle won’t be purchased specifically for this purpose… an Uber driver will buy a specific car just for driving an Uber and the revenue that generates by contributing their time (well and money) but with Robotaxi one could just buy the car, charge it up and let it go while you do something ELSE.

I don’t see it happening before 2025 at the earliest. Maybe some small pockets, geo fenced, obviously for now WEATHER restricted, but I don’t see fleets of them traveling around major metros till at least 2025

I could definitely see people doing that in the same way people buy multiple cars now and make them available on Turo. I think the number of people that would do this is pretty small though.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1660980365652107267

Not a confident play from Waymo. Significant for the industry. Tesla Network Vs Uber - game on.