Project Highland (Investor impact etc.)

[MC3OZ]

My summary from Teslascope:
1. Full release is now q1 2024. Can we expect some changes earlier than others? Perhaps main refresh in late Oct'23?
2. Hw4 with new bumper cameras. Bird Eye view?
3. Emphasis on using recycled materials.
4. Emphasis on cost saving like removing components / sensors.
5. Seats: Air ventilated , vibration reducing , increased comfort
6. RGB lighting
7. Rear entertainment console toyed with.
8. Will receive upgrades similar to new S&X.
9. "R" displayed in the mirrors when in Reverse.
10. Upgraded speaker system. Perhaps a way of saying we reduced speakers which makes it upgraded.
11. Steer by wire

Just for fun my guesses on additional changes.

12. Brake by wire
13. Wiring harness.
14. 48V architecture
15. CATL M3P battery pack in Shanghai

Not included:- (At Fremont and Shanghai - but may be included later at Berlin )

• Front and rear castings
• 4680 Structural battery pack.

I don't think Fremont will use a CATL M3P pack initially because there is no way to build a US factory in time for initial production and Chinese packs may not qualify for the IRA.

Ideally Highland produced a Fremont will use a pack which qualifies for the IRA, initially that might be a 2170 pack.

I'm mostly just posting guesses just to see how right or wrong I end up being,.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1676748743264342016

 

[MC3OZ]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1676748743264342016

I didn't expect to be proven wrong on castings so soon.

I am sure they are making the Highland Model 3 at Fremont.

I don't think they have installed any additional Gigapresses at Fremont.

I wonder if the 2 existing presses could keep with with volume of castings needed for 3 and Y production?

I haven't seen a recently flyover at Fremont there was talk that one of the GA tents used for Model Y has been disassembled.

 

[JupiterMan]

I didn't expect to be proven wrong on castings so soon.

I am sure they are making the Highland Model 3 at Fremont.

I don't think they have installed any additional Gigapresses at Fremont.

I wonder if the 2 existing presses could keep with with volume of castings needed for 3 and Y production?

I haven't seen a recently flyover at Fremont there was talk that one of the GA tents used for Model Y has been disassembled.

Is it possible that with the Model 3 Highland refresh we will see something like we have had for the Model Y in recent years, i.e. some factories/lines will use castings, others initially will not, but all output will be updated with the new exterior/interior, so from a customer perspective they get the new "look" Model 3.

Overtime, as new Gigapresses are installed, more production will then transition to castings.

Also, do we know any more about Austin Model 3 production, when will this happen, and do they have spare Gigapress capacity there?

 

[Buckminster]

Is it possible that with the Model 3 Highland refresh we will see something like we have had for the Model Y in recent years, i.e. some factories/lines will use castings, others initially will not, but all output will be updated with the new exterior/interior, so from a customer perspective they get the new "look" Model 3.

Overtime, as new Gigapresses are installed, more production will then transition to castings.

Also, do we know any more about Austin Model 3 production, when will this happen, and do they have spare Gigapress capacity there?

I am expecting extensive changes which wouldn’t allow interchangeability. More likely they will sell old and new alongside each other. Highland could be introduced to certain continents earlier than others and/or highland starts as premium models only.

 

[Buckminster]

Where it all started:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1677871881314074624

Warren is looking at the end of Model E production to get the Q4 date...

 

[eisa01]

It's apparently just some guess by some auto consultancy?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1514243556285714439

 

[MC3OZ]

Also, do we know any more about Austin Model 3 production, when will this happen, and do they have spare Gigapress capacity there?

I haven't heard anything about plans to make Model 3 in Austin.

I expect to see Model 3 made in Berlin at some stage, because shipping the cars from China is less than ideal.

I am wondering if they will make some of the compact Gen3 cars at Austin, I know it is close to Mexico but Gen3 is likely to sell in higher numbers and will perhaps be multiple models.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1681494804524412928

 

[Buckminster]

shutdowns in Q3 for upgrades pretty much confirms highland right?

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1682032488582107139

 

[Buckminster]

I don't agree:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1682404636970434561

 

[ToTheStars]

I don't agree:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1682404636970434561

Me neither.
Anecdotal evidence: myself, I'm waiting for Highland to buy a Model 3. I'm from Europe and the Model Y is just too big for my taste.
I like it that Tesla is creating a refresh of the Model 3. This way they get experience in creating another smaller model (Highland) and they can use this experience to improve the next gen model.

 

[Buckminster]

NEWS: Tesla's Fremont factory has reportedly paused production (video below). Elon said during the Q2 earnings call last week that Tesla would temporarily pause production this quarter to upgrade the factories.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1684181172924940289

 

[DanCar]

NEWS: Tesla's Fremont factory has reportedly paused production (video below). Elon said during the Q2 earnings call last week that Tesla would temporarily pause production this quarter to upgrade the factories.

Interested in the video.

 

[Doggydogworld]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1684181172924940289

That'd be some pretty bad planning, since Highland has been in the works a long time. I usually see see these kind of write-downs in a few different cases:

1. Unexpected lack of demand forces inventory clearance sales / product discontinuation. I don't see enough discounting for this. And Tesla cut prices more dramatically in Q1 without big write-downs.

2. Sudden change of product line ("stop making cars, we're now a fembot company!", haha)

3. Long term supply contracts at high prices. It's possible they got caught in a few of these with all the recent crazy price fluctuations.

4. Trouble ramping a new product trigger penalties when you renege on purchase commitments. This is killing Rivian COGS (and probably Lucid).

The last one could be related to Cybertruck and/or 4680 delays.

 

[tivoboy]

That'd be some pretty bad planning, since Highland has been in the works a long time. I usually see see these kind of write-downs in a few different cases:

1. Unexpected lack of demand forces inventory clearance sales / product discontinuation. I don't see enough discounting for this. And Tesla cut prices more dramatically in Q1 without big write-downs.

2. Sudden change of product line ("stop making cars, we're now a fembot company!", haha)

3. Long term supply contracts at high prices. It's possible they got caught in a few of these with all the recent crazy price fluctuations.

4. Trouble ramping a new product trigger penalties when you renege on purchase commitments. This is killing Rivian COGS (and probably Lucid).

The last one could be related to Cybertruck and/or 4680 delays.

I’ll go on the record as saying that I would seriously doubt that they would write down 167M in inventory as a function of transition to Highland.. lots of warranty repair in the future, lots of Y carryover, and still a lot of M3 production - although with Fremont shut down now/soon that could change. We don’t REALLY know if that is a Highland change over or systems update which really hasn’t occurred at Fremont in a WHILE.

There is a possible accounting opportunity here, but that too I doubt. Would be interesting if they call this out. Can one see this in annual audits?

 

[JupiterMan]

That'd be some pretty bad planning, since Highland has been in the works a long time. I usually see see these kind of write-downs in a few different cases:

I would like to understand how many units of production that $167 million relates to.

I guess it would be incredibly hard (and high risk) to run inventory levels to zero before Highland transition as there are so many variables at play, and its likely they would plan to have a buffer.

if this inventory equates to a few weeks production then it could well fit.

 

[Doggydogworld]

I would like to understand how many units of production that $167 million relates to.

There's no way to know. 167m is only 1% of Auto COGS, but almost everything carries through. An over-buy of discontinued parts should just be held as inventory for repairs. There's also the option to absorb any excess buffer by delaying the changeover a couple weeks.