Supercharging Nightmare Begins

[mxnym]

That site doesn't really provide any history. It does show there is not all that much activity in new Supercharger construction. I count 46 permits with no construction and 39 sites under construction. So a total of 85 new sites currently underway in some form. As of May of 2018 there were 569 stations in the US, so 85 new stations is significant, but not in any way unusual.

It would be a massive effort to track all this, especially through the supercharge.info site. I don't expect to do this personally.

"Significant but not unusual" sort of implies that they are continuing to move in the same direction that they have been while nobody else has even begun to, doesn't it?

To get historical information, you would simply need to jump to the threads for the superchargers and read the posts. I agree that it would be a massive effort to track, but I'm not making assertions that should be backed up with data (or arguing against such assertions without assimilating the data, for that matter).

 

[gnuarm]

"Significant but not unusual" sort of implies that they are continuing to move in the same direction that they have been while nobody else has even begun to, doesn't it?

To get historical information, you would simply need to jump to the threads for the superchargers and read the posts. I agree that it would be a massive effort to track, but I'm not making assertions that should be backed up with data (or arguing against such assertions without assimilating the data, for that matter).

I'm not sure what you are talking about really. Your references are too vague. All I've been saying is that Tesla is not giving the Supercharger network the attention it needs to continue their dominance in the market. I think I've stated fairly obvious facts about the rate of production of the cars. Is any of that in dispute? While in most Supercharger locations there is no problem finding free pumps, the picture is rapidly changing. Just last night I charged in Fredericksburg, VA and at one point there were five cars at 8 taps. This was not a time of unusually high usage. Other locations have regular congestion.

The other issue is finding charging where you need it. Yes, you can make trips in most areas of the US, but those trips require you to stop multiple times compared to stopping a few times when you can actually eat a decent meal and not waste the time. Maybe that's just my preference, but I am pretty confident this will be a major hurtle to widespread adoption by the public. It only takes a few stories in the news of congestion at charging stations or complaints of all the time spent at chargers instead of driving to put most people off ever buying an electric car.

While the other automotive companies will sell both types of cars, so don't care if you buy electric or ICE, Tesla only sells one type of auto (don't say expensive) and will have to work hard to stave off the competition in a few years if they lose the charging battle. Sure, Tesla makes pretty cool cars.. for now. But in four or five years when everyone is making them they won't stand out so easily. The charging network is their real claim to fame and going forward they need to dominate that part of the market. The worst thing they could possibly do is to open it up to other brands of cars. Elon Musk has publicly said it wouldn't bother him if Tesla didn't survive if electric cars in general are advanced. That combined with the lack of serious Supercharger construction is scary.

 

[Big John]

I believe that Elon said recently that they are planning on doubling the number if SC in the US. That would be awesome. Does anyone know if Tesla "makes money" when it charges those without lifetime SCing? If so the economics will drive Tesla to continue to put in SCs in high demand areas. If you think about it--having an income stream in selling electricity where little labor in needed is a great business--like a cash cow. I still think 90% of all charging is done at home. So this issue is pretty much for the 10%(or less) without home chargers. For the 90%, charging at home and using SC for trips is very nice. One just has to learn not to schedule stops in urban areas. I drive all over CA and very rarely have a wait--only when SC are in a Mall during shopping season (Rancho Cucamonga). Road trips are easy peezy. Tesla successful banished a sales challenge (where do I charge on a trip?) that kept the majority on the sidelines. I don't think urban supercharging for those not having access to a home charger was anticipated as a major sales inhibitor when the SC network was originally planned. For at least 50% of Tesla owners the SC network is nearly perfect for their needs.

 

[gnuarm]

I believe that Elon said recently that they are planning on doubling the number if SC in the US. That would be awesome.

Yes, recently was in 2017 and again in May of 2018. The actual number show that this has not happened and is not going to happen. It does make for great headlines though. It was one of the factors that encouraged me to jump in.

Does anyone know if Tesla "makes money" when it charges those without lifetime SCing? If so the economics will drive Tesla to continue to put in SCs in high demand areas. If you think about it--having an income stream in selling electricity where little labor in needed is a great business--like a cash cow.

Yes, I've seen the rates they are charging and I believe they are making money, but not tons. I haven't seen any real numbers on what it costs to put in chargers, but I'll bet it is a healthy sum. The revenue stream likely will take a decade to pay for the installation, but I can't say for sure. I know I have seen numbers for what they charge in each state, but you would have to compare that to the utility rates in each state, lather, rinse, repeat.

Here is a back of the envelope calculation. 100 kW for 1 hour is an average of $12 worth of electricity. Say they charge $20 for that 100 kW and a charger runs for 12 hours a day average, that's still only $8 profit * 12 hours or $96 per day or $35,040 a year. Not knowing for sure how much it costs to put one in... I don't think it is more than this so maybe they will pay for themselves quickly in the high usage areas, but my numbers are likely on the high side. So those new units in North Dakota will be more window dressing than profit centers.

I still think 90% of all charging is done at home. So this issue is pretty much for the 10%(or less) without home chargers. For the 90%, charging at home and using SC for trips is very nice. One just has to learn not to schedule stops in urban areas. I drive all over CA and very rarely have a wait--only when SC are in a Mall during shopping season (Rancho Cucamonga). Road trips are easy peezy. Tesla successful banished a sales challenge (where do I charge on a trip?) that kept the majority on the sidelines. I don't think urban supercharging for those not having access to a home charger was anticipated as a major sales inhibitor when the SC network was originally planned. For at least 50% of Tesla owners the SC network is nearly perfect for their needs.

Yes, that is the present state. Tesla seems to be addressing the high usage areas and have most of their new stations going in in those areas. But the actual number of new stations is low... much lower than then hype, at least in the US.

 

[jboy210]

I believe that Elon said recently that they are planning on doubling the number if SC in the US. That would be awesome. Does anyone know if Tesla "makes money" when it charges those without lifetime SCing?

I remember quotes of Elon saying that Supercharging would not be a profit center. But it needed to be self-sustaining at some point

Thus far Tesla seems to use Superchargers and their charge structure in several ways:

1. To facilitate long distance travel by EVs abd replacement of ICE vehicles
   
2. To reward buyers of higher end (higher margin) models X, S, 3P
3. As a differentiator of Tesla from other brands.

Point 3 may combine with point 2 for Europe owners since Tesla is rolling out CCS chargers in Europe. I assume this would give Tesla European owners charging options. Superchargers and non-Tesla CCS chargers. Is that correct? If so, this another differentiator for Tesla.

Self-sustainment for chargers comes in the form of income from US cars without free supercharging or those that have hit their supercharging limit. For Europe it could come from this, and potentially by allowing other brand's CCS cars to use the Superchargers, for a fee. And perhaps in the future US Teslas and Superchargers will be CCS based thus giving US owners the options of Superchargers (perhaps at a low rate or free to differentiate Tesla) or Electrify America or xxx CCS chargers.

 

[gnuarm]

Ok, some have asked for data even though the numbers have been there all along for anyone who has been driving a Tesla for very long. So for the benefit of the newbies like myself, here is a bit of data I have been able to pull together in a relatively short time. It is not a lot, but I think sufficient to show the trend. Pasting tables here typically don't show up properly, so I'll just cite the important facts.

For world wide charger stations 7 data samples in 2018 from various online sources say 277 new stations this year with an average of about 5 per week and a trend line of about 4 per week. The trend line takes into account that the growth may have not been consistent, or it shows my data is "lumpy". Numbers in this month show 25 installations in two weeks. Read into that what you want.

The US data shows 16 new stations since 5/12/18. That is only 1 every two weeks. The current number is 585. Again, in 2019 Musk is shooting for doubling chargers just as was the target in 2017 and 2018.

An article in electrek last month.

By the end of 2018, the company wanted 18,000 Superchargers around the world.

Tesla is now operating about 11,400 Superchargers at 1,390 stations around the world and with only less than 2 months before the end of the year, it’s clear that it will fall short of that goal too.

But CEO Elon Musk is still setting an ambitious goal for next year with plans to “double” the network: <tweet snipped> It would mean about 23,000 Superchargers by the end of 2019.

Tesla plans to double Supercharger network, V3 delayed to ‘early next year’, says Elon Musk

Nothing in the past indicates Tesla is even serious about this which many here accept as truth. The new part is that there are already over 200,000 Teslas on the road in the US with nearly half of them being model 3s. With such a slow growth of chargers in the US Tesla won't be able to avoid long lines in their best markets! They need to expand the number of chargers in the key urban areas as well as reduce the distance between chargers along highways.

The competition isn't sitting still and will have a lot of clout once they get rolling. Tesla needs to knuckle down and put in more charging facilities so this doesn't become a problem weakening their position compared to their competition. I don't want to drive a Mercedes and I don't want to drive a Chevy. But in five years if Toyota has a vehicle comparable to the model Y, I may well buy it. That might be about the time the model Y comes out... lol

 

[BerTX]

Ok, some have asked for data even though the numbers have been there all along for anyone who has been driving a Tesla for very long. So for the benefit of the newbies like myself, here is a bit of data I have been able to pull together in a relatively short time. It is not a lot, but I think sufficient to show the trend. Pasting tables here typically don't show up properly, so I'll just cite the important facts.

For world wide charger stations 7 data samples in 2018 from various online sources say 277 new stations this year with an average of about 5 per week and a trend line of about 4 per week. The trend line takes into account that the growth may have not been consistent, or it shows my data is "lumpy". Numbers in this month show 25 installations in two weeks. Read into that what you want.

The US data shows 16 new stations since 5/12/18. That is only 1 every two weeks. The current number is 585. Again, in 2019 Musk is shooting for doubling chargers just as was the target in 2017 and 2018.

An article in electrek last month.


Tesla plans to double Supercharger network, V3 delayed to ‘early next year’, says Elon Musk

Nothing in the past indicates Tesla is even serious about this which many here accept as truth. The new part is that there are already over 200,000 Teslas on the road in the US with nearly half of them being model 3s. With such a slow growth of chargers in the US Tesla won't be able to avoid long lines in their best markets! They need to expand the number of chargers in the key urban areas as well as reduce the distance between chargers along highways.

The competition isn't sitting still and will have a lot of clout once they get rolling. Tesla needs to knuckle down and put in more charging facilities so this doesn't become a problem weakening their position compared to their competition. I don't want to drive a Mercedes and I don't want to drive a Chevy. But in five years if Toyota has a vehicle comparable to the model Y, I may well buy it. That might be about the time the model Y comes out... lol

I have no idea where you are getting your numbers, or what all this averaging of different sources is all about. You are making this way too hard on yourself. Supercharge.info has the exact numbers. You can process them any way you want to try to show how bad they are to prove your point, but they are not anywhere near as bad as "The US data shows 16 new stations since 5/12/18". I count 70 in that time period, which may be off by a few because I just winged it. The numbers ARE bad. No need to misrepresent them to make them worse.

What is not represented in that number is the true number of Superchargers. You are counting the number of Supercharger locations, not the number of Superchargers. Total Supercharger count has not doubled in the time period(s) that were in Elon's goals, either, but a large number of locations have been expanded. The number of Superchargers at each location has been greatly expanded, and that does not show up in your count of locations.

 

[gnuarm]

I have no idea where you are getting your numbers, or what all this averaging of different sources is all about. You are making this way too hard on yourself. Supercharge.info has the exact numbers. You can process them any way you want to try to show how bad they are to prove your point, but they are not anywhere near as bad as "The US data shows 16 new stations since 5/12/18". I count 70 in that time period, which may be off by a few because I just winged it. The numbers ARE bad. No need to misrepresent them to make them worse.

What is not represented in that number is the true number of Superchargers. You are counting the number of Supercharger locations, not the number of Superchargers. Total Supercharger count has not doubled in the time period(s) that were in Elon's goals, either, but a large number of locations have been expanded. The number of Superchargers at each location has been greatly expanded, and that does not show up in your count of locations.

Please show your sources. Are you going through the individual items in supercharge.info? No, I didn't do that. I pulled numbers cited by online reports. I found a report of 569 US stations in May 2018, 583 in June and 585 now. Which of these numbers are inaccurate? It is possible some numbers are North America and others are US. The difference isn't large, but it would be enough to skew the deltas. Even if true, the growth is still pretty small compared to what they need.

The data on US stations and chargers are slim, but the numbers on world wide chargers are solid coming from many sources all of which cite Tesla as their source. You can also get those numbers on a daily basis from the Tesla web site.

The number of chargers is also not so easy to find unless you want to wade through every listing in supercharger.info and add them up. I'm pretty sure that is not as significant as you might think. The world wide numbers for chargers I've found shows the same rate of expansion as stations assuming 12 chargers per station. Still not significant in the context given.

There are many reports of Musk tweeting "charging will double in XXXX" (fill in the blank). There are no reports that they actually come anywhere near that, in fact the reports on actual growth are always much smaller. Now that Tesla is out of "production hell" and should be out of "delivery logistics hell", it is time to deal with "charging network expansion" hell before the next generation of car puts them back into "production hell" and the cycle repeats.

If you want to critique my sources, fine. But please don't accuse me by saying I "misrepresent" the numbers. I don't know if I still have those web pages open, but I'm happy to share any of my sources. I'm not trying to lie, I'm looking for the truth.

 

[gnuarm]

Here's some data from supercharger.info. I found the charts let you point to a graph to see the data on that day. So for North America the numbers are Jan 1, 2018, 502 stations, Dec 11, 2018 653. That's a delta of 151 stations or 30% vs. 25% world wide. Like I said, not so many and far short of the 100% growth goal.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Here's some data from supercharger.info. I found the charts let you point to a graph to see the data on that day. So for North America the numbers are Jan 1, 2018, 502 stations, Dec 11, 2018 653. That's a delta of 151 stations or 30% vs. 25% world wide. Like I said, not so many and far short of the 100% growth goal.

And Tesla was severely short of cash this year and cut back on everything.
The rate was particularly low in Q3, but has gone back up in Q4.
As the finances stabilize, I would not expect the infrastructure to lag as much.
Newer cars will not have lifetime Supercharging, which should mean less leeching and more income.

 

[BerTX]

Please show your sources. Are you going through the individual items in supercharge.info? No, I didn't do that. I pulled numbers cited by online reports. I found a report of 569 US stations in May 2018, 583 in June and 585 now. Which of these numbers are inaccurate? It is possible some numbers are North America and others are US. The difference isn't large, but it would be enough to skew the deltas. Even if true, the growth is still pretty small compared to what they need.

The data on US stations and chargers are slim, but the numbers on world wide chargers are solid coming from many sources all of which cite Tesla as their source. You can also get those numbers on a daily basis from the Tesla web site.

The number of chargers is also not so easy to find unless you want to wade through every listing in supercharger.info and add them up. I'm pretty sure that is not as significant as you might think. The world wide numbers for chargers I've found shows the same rate of expansion as stations assuming 12 chargers per station. Still not significant in the context given.

There are many reports of Musk tweeting "charging will double in XXXX" (fill in the blank). There are no reports that they actually come anywhere near that, in fact the reports on actual growth are always much smaller. Now that Tesla is out of "production hell" and should be out of "delivery logistics hell", it is time to deal with "charging network expansion" hell before the next generation of car puts them back into "production hell" and the cycle repeats.

If you want to critique my sources, fine. But please don't accuse me by saying I "misrepresent" the numbers. I don't know if I still have those web pages open, but I'm happy to share any of my sources. I'm not trying to lie, I'm looking for the truth.

All the data to find whatever information you need is in the Data tab in Supercharge.info. It might take some work to get what you want, but then so does looking at multiple (possibly inaccurate) sources and trying to consolidate those. I just didn't see a reason not to use accurate data. Maybe "misrepresent" was a bit strong, but passing up a complete, accurate source to use ones that appeared to better make your point seemed suspect.

As to the number of Superchargers vs. the number of SC locations, many sites have been expanded, which doesn't show in the location count. Also, the average number of Superchargers in each location has at least doubled, meaning the numbers of Superchargers doubling is closer to reality than the number of locations doubling.

I wasn't claiming that the goals were met. I think I repeated that several times.

 

[Anzir]

Someone posted this on the Owner's FB page. They have this at the Amsterdam Tesla store/supercharger. I wish we had access to info like this. Pretty cool. These figures are all within the last 24 hours. Superchargers definitely are not a profit center.

 

[juliusa]

Here's some data from supercharger.info. I found the charts let you point to a graph to see the data on that day. So for North America the numbers are Jan 1, 2018, 502 stations, Dec 11, 2018 653. That's a delta of 151 stations or 30% vs. 25% world wide. Like I said, not so many and far short of the 100% growth goal.

Glad you finally found the data you were looking for. It is all there.

Yes, short of goal. Just like their sales are short of goal. Just like always - that is Tesla. Big stretch goals, and even though they may not get there, they deliver a lot.

So what is your point? They have built a lot of superchargers and there is plenty of capacity at over 95% of the locations. They are actively building more capacity. There is no other charging network that is even comparable to the Tesla worldwide supercharging network, except some niche markets like CHAdeMO in Japan.

In 2018 the Bay area went from 3 locations to 11 locations (Daly City to Milipitas), and from 32 stalls to 167 stalls. There are 2 locations under construction that will add another 42 stalls.

 

[gnuarm]

All the data to find whatever information you need is in the Data tab in Supercharge.info. It might take some work to get what you want, but then so does looking at multiple (possibly inaccurate) sources and trying to consolidate those. I just didn't see a reason not to use accurate data. Maybe "misrepresent" was a bit strong, but passing up a complete, accurate source to use ones that appeared to better make your point seemed suspect.

As to the number of Superchargers vs. the number of SC locations, many sites have been expanded, which doesn't show in the location count. Also, the average number of Superchargers in each location has at least doubled, meaning the numbers of Superchargers doubling is closer to reality than the number of locations doubling.

I wasn't claiming that the goals were met. I think I repeated that several times.

If you want to wade through hundreds of listings, go for it. A data base is not automatically an appropriate way to find data if it doesn't present the data in a useful way.

"Many sites" doesn't mean diddly. You complain about my lack of good numbers, I'm complaining about yours. I think your "doubling" claim is not supported by the facts... but then your claim is pretty vague as well.

I've posted correct data from supercharging.info. So either discuss the data or drop it.

 

[BerTX]

If you want to wade through hundreds of listings, go for it. A data base is not automatically an appropriate way to find data if it doesn't present the data in a useful way.

"Many sites" doesn't mean diddly. You complain about my lack of good numbers, I'm complaining about yours. I think your "doubling" claim is not supported by the facts... but then your claim is pretty vague as well.

I've posted correct data from supercharging.info. So either discuss the data or drop it.

I made no claims except that the number you quoted of 16 new Superchargers in the US from May 12, 2018 until the present was inaccurate.

 

[jesla]

My guess is the 6 mo free supercharging that many model 3 owners received. Unfortunately, that won’t help anyone right now. Try charging at 3am.

need FSD and a bot so the car can go on its own and charge itself and come back

 

[gnuarm]

And Tesla was severely short of cash this year and cut back on everything.
The rate was particularly low in Q3, but has gone back up in Q4.
As the finances stabilize, I would not expect the infrastructure to lag as much.
Newer cars will not have lifetime Supercharging, which should mean less leeching and more income.

That's what I thought as well, but if you look at the graphs at supercharger.info you will see the rate of installation is pretty linear with little in the way of variance. Yes, the rate has slowed a bit in the second half of the year, but not enough to impact anything.

My issue is with the overall shape of this curve. Model 3 production is quadrupling the rate of new Tesla cars appearing on the roads. It will not take a long time for these cars to overwhelm the Supercharger network if the installation rate is not improved significantly. As I've said before there are two factors I think are in play.

The first is congestion at charging sites. Some areas are worse than others, but the congestion will increase everywhere as more Tesla cars make it onto the roads. Just the other day I was at the Fredericksburg station and 4 of 8 chargers were in use. A guy pulled in next to me and left in a friend's car. I'm glad the Superchargers give priority to the car there first. No, the station was not full, but it won't be much longer before that is a problem and I expect there is prime time congestion now.

The second is how Supercharger locations relate to usable range. If your car can drive 200 miles on the present charge and the chargers are at 100 miles and then 201 miles, you are going to have to stop more often. I've planned routes where the tool didn't tell me to skip any chargers at all even though I have nearly a 300 mile range. I think the majority of the public won't think about an electric car until chargers are a lot closer together.

Most people here are pretty happy with their cars. But this is the group most eager to drive BEVs and willing to put up with a lot more inconvenience. While Tesla is getting a lot of press, there still are not a lot of customers lining up to buy them, even with the advent of the model 3. I've read delivery times are down to a few weeks. What happened to the 500,000 on the reservation list? It's very possible that before spring arrives they will have model 3s parked in dealer lots and warehouse locations. Oh, wait, they already do the latter!

I'm not forecasting gloom and doom next year. But I am saying the elephant in the room is charging. Until consumers are comfortable with the issues of charging and range, sales are not going to take off so much. For Tesla to survive long term they have to play the Supercharger card big time. In a couple of years it will be their only real advantage.

 

[gnuarm]

Glad you finally found the data you were looking for. It is all there.

Yes, short of goal. Just like their sales are short of goal. Just like always - that is Tesla. Big stretch goals, and even though they may not get there, they deliver a lot.

So what is your point? They have built a lot of superchargers and there is plenty of capacity at over 95% of the locations. They are actively building more capacity. There is no other charging network that is even comparable to the Tesla worldwide supercharging network, except some niche markets like CHAdeMO in Japan.

In 2018 the Bay area went from 3 locations to 11 locations (Daly City to Milipitas), and from 32 stalls to 167 stalls. There are 2 locations under construction that will add another 42 stalls.

The problem is their sales are not coming up short... yet. Production has been late, but has reached a significant figure. The number of cars is growing faster than the number of charging stalls, much faster. Look at it this way. Your village has an exponential population growth rate, your crop rates are growing linearly. See any problem with that?

You seem to be very parochial about this as are others. You are not affected yet, so it's not a problem. It doesn't matter how many competing chargers there are as of now. There aren't many competing cars... yet. The problem will be in two or four years when the other cars are out in droves and the competing chargers have ramped up.

I recently read that as part of VW's penance for diesel gate they are investing billions of dollars in a US charging infrastructure called "Electrify America". Perhaps you've heard of them? They've already started spending $200 million in CA and have approved another $200 million. Billions of dollars will pay for a lot of charging. Don't think the other car makers are standing around with their hands in their pockets. They have fairly rational CEOs at the helm and know how to play a long game. Actually, they are the elephants in the room.

 

[juliusa]

The number of cars is growing faster than the number of charging stalls, much faster.

Not in the Bay area, where the supercharger congestion is.

The problem will be in two or four years when the other cars are out in droves and the competing chargers have ramped up.

Yes, another perennial perdiction. The supercharger network is going to implode in 2 years. There will be competition in 2 years.

What has remained constant is the 2 years - it is always 2 years in the future.

 

[gnuarm]

Not in the Bay area, where the supercharger congestion is.


Yes, another perennial perdiction. The supercharger network is going to implode in 2 years. There will be competition in 2 years.

What has remained constant is the 2 years - it is always 2 years in the future.

You can ignore the data, but that doesn't change reality. Look at the graphs. Consider how many cars they are making. In two years they will have another low priced BEV for sale and SUV/Crossovers are more popular than sedans. The fact remains that they need to up their game on Superchargers. I'm not planning to go far this Christmas, but I'll bet you a six pack we have even more reports of wait lines at chargers. Even if the problem is not all that great, it is the reporting of them that will affect sales of the cars.