Supercharging Nightmare Begins

[juliusa]

You can ignore the data, but that doesn't change reality. Look at the graphs. Consider how many cars they are making. In two years they will have another low priced BEV for sale and SUV/Crossovers are more popular than sedans.

You need to understand the data, not just look at it.

The have enough capacity in most areas for 10x the cars. Many locations in Kansas, for example. They added many superchargers to get coverage, with 8-stall locations that get a few visits per day.

Most construction in the US is now in dense areas to add capacity - not geography.

Did you notice a 5x increase in supercharger stalls in the Bay area in 2018? They are adding where it is needed.

Even if the problem is not all that great, it is the reporting of them that will affect sales of the cars.

Well, at lease you understand it is a perception problem, not a real problem. Don't worry about Tesla sales - sales has not been their problem for the past 5 years. They have pegged the MS/MX at 100k per year, and seem to be doing fine with meeting that. M3 is sold out at least through next year.

Take a breath. It's going to be ok.

 

[jboy210]

You need to understand the data, not just look at it.

The have enough capacity in most areas for 10x the cars. Many locations in Kansas, for example. They added many superchargers to get coverage, with 8-stall locations that get a few visits per day.

Most construction in the US is now in dense areas to add capacity - not geography.

Did you notice a 5x increase in supercharger stalls in the Bay area in 2018? They are adding where it is needed.

Take a breath. It's going to be ok.

They definitely need it here in the Bay Area. Every morning I drive by a long line of cars trying to get to the interstate on the 2 line road. As a game my wife and I will count the Teslas. We are now seeing Teslas being every 7 or 8th car heading down to the Silicon Valley. Mostly 3s, followed by Xs, and then S. They definitely out number BMWs and Mercedes.

I am glad this year they added the 20 stall charger in Livermore, 10 stalls in San Ramon, and are looking at adding an additional 10 stalls in Dublin at the Target.

 

[Uncle Paul]

Another point to consider:

Tesla mentioned that they have a new version of Supercharger that should increase charging speeds by double or more. This will have the effect of doubling the number of Superchargers as owners will need to wait at the chargers for 1/2 as long.

Not sure if the current Superchargers can all be upgraded to the new version, but if so, it would go a long way towards solving the Supercharger capacity.

Other manufacturers are going the route of uping their voltages to also allow faster Supercharging.

I believe that as congestion becomes more of a problem solutions will be rolled out.

Gas stations also have their problems. Years ago tons of gas stations were abandoned as their single wall underground tanks were found to be leaking and often contaminating the ground water underneath. Solution was to mandate double wall tanks with leak dectors between the double walls. Now the older double wall tanks are beginning to leak, and the tanks will need to be dug up and replaced at cost the local pumpers cannot afford.

In the years to come, underground tanks will be prohibited. This will significantly reduce the "gas station on every corner" convenience. Already gas pumpers make very little on their pumping of fuel and rely mostly on their unhealthy sales of junk food, beer and slurpies.

Gotta face facts. Oll wells, pipelines, tanker trucks and refineries are all horrible for the environment. The gassers are not paying their fair share to clean up all the pollution and health damage they are causing.

When the governments are forced to clean up their cities, then the dawn of the EV will truly be the only solution.

 

[juliusa]

They definitely need it here in the Bay Area.

Yes!! Increased 5x in 2018. Still expanding.

 

[gnuarm]

You need to understand the data, not just look at it.

The have enough capacity in most areas for 10x the cars. Many locations in Kansas, for example. They added many superchargers to get coverage, with 8-stall locations that get a few visits per day.

You are only focusing on one issue, charger congestion. The entire country needs more stations in order to facilitate travel.

Congested areas need more stalls, the rest of the country needs more stations.

Most construction in the US is now in dense areas to add capacity - not geography.

Yep, but that's not the only problem.

Did you notice a 5x increase in supercharger stalls in the Bay area in 2018? They are adding where it is needed.

So they are rationing the new chargers to the hot spots. Sure, I get that. If you can't address the bigger issue, deal with the wild fires.

Well, at lease you understand it is a perception problem, not a real problem. Don't worry about Tesla sales - sales has not been their problem for the past 5 years. They have pegged the MS/MX at 100k per year, and seem to be doing fine with meeting that. M3 is sold out at least through next year.

Take a breath. It's going to be ok.

I wish it were about breathing, but it's about facts. Ignore them if you wish, that seems to be what you prefer.

The model 3 is not sold out at all. They have exhausted the reservation list for the cars they are selling now and the delivery time is less than a month. Until they come out with a profitable $35,000 version for the remaining reservations, they will need to sell to new buyers. Check around, you will find a lot of evidence Tesla is trying hard to continue selling model 3s. Why do you think they came out with the mid range version? It's to sell cars now rather than letting customers wait for the lower priced standard range version which they can't make a profit on.

In case you haven't noticed, Tesla is supposed to start selling model 3 cars in the EU and China soon. More charging needed there too.

It's funny that people can't see how things are changing. The S and X were each not without difficulties, but the venture capital kept the company running. Now the model 3 nearly broke the company. If their production problems had continued a month or two they would have had serious cash flow issues. Now they are reaching the point of running out of steam on shipping model 3s and with the much larger expenses of running the model 3 line they need to keep the revenue flowing.

You seem to think that perception is not real. Perception is what created this company. Now that they are shipping mainstream cars perception is what can break them. Don't dismiss it all just because it doesn't impact you.

I'm currently long on Tesla, but I expect to be selling my stocks as soon as I meet the long term gains requirements. It's a very volatile stock anyway. Better to trade on the short term than the long. This company lurches from crisis to crisis. A linear ramp of charging is not going to cover their needs for the next two to four years. Within a year you will be hearing howls from many parts of the US if they don't step it up significantly.

 

[gnuarm]

Yes!! Increased 5x in 2018. Still expanding.

How many more Tesla cars do they have???

 

[verygreen]

Tesla mentioned that they have a new version of Supercharger that should increase charging speeds by double or more. This will have the effect of doubling the number of Superchargers as owners will need to wait at the chargers for 1/2 as long.

This does not help on two levels:

1. existing cars cannot take more power and I bet ther would not be any retrofits
2. As the SoC increases the power drops even more so if you were about to make an argument that "if before there was stall pairing that led to decreased rate on one side it won't be needed anymore" - consider two cars at 80+ SoC charging at the paired stalls. Even is SC is able to output 1MW of power, the car would only take much less.

 

[gnuarm]

Another point to consider:

Tesla mentioned that they have a new version of Supercharger that should increase charging speeds by double or more. This will have the effect of doubling the number of Superchargers as owners will need to wait at the chargers for 1/2 as long.

Don't assume this will work retroactively with all cars. Batteries have limits on how fast they can be charged without damage. Look at the issues they found with the 90D battery packs and the current rate of Supercharging.

Not sure if the current Superchargers can all be upgraded to the new version, but if so, it would go a long way towards solving the Supercharger capacity.

I think they will be new installations. No point in ripping out old equipment that works fine.

Other manufacturers are going the route of uping their voltages to also allow faster Supercharging.

That's mostly because they are looking for a leg up on the Supercharger network. It will take something like four years for them to catch up to the Tesla network size, so maybe they can get noticed with a faster rate. My concern is that the charging network will be the only real selling feature for Tesla after big iron gets into the market in a serious way. Does anyone here really think the other auto makers are too inept to build a BEV that the public wants? I test drove the Bolt and the only thing I didn't like about it was the nearly total lack of trip charging. I wouldn't even be able to use it for my weekly trips (120 miles each way) because GM had zero interest in the charging part of the equation. That will be changing soon.

I believe that as congestion becomes more of a problem solutions will be rolled out.

Beliefs are important. It would be better to see evidence. Currently Tesla has only installed chargers at a fairly constant rate.

Gas stations also have their problems. Years ago tons of gas stations were abandoned as their single wall underground tanks were found to be leaking and often contaminating the ground water underneath. Solution was to mandate double wall tanks with leak dectors between the double walls. Now the older double wall tanks are beginning to leak, and the tanks will need to be dug up and replaced at cost the local pumpers cannot afford.

I hate gas stations. The cars try to run you over, gas and oil smells, the big gas trucks take over half the lot and the food is the worst with no place to sit but your car.

In the years to come, underground tanks will be prohibited. This will significantly reduce the "gas station on every corner" convenience. Already gas pumpers make very little on their pumping of fuel and rely mostly on their unhealthy sales of junk food, beer and slurpies.

Someone had a video about an BEV takeover prediction which showed a brief window when many people aren't yet ready to buy a BEV, so hold onto their ICE longer than usual because they know they will be buying a BEV. They said ICE repair facilities will boom for that short period then crash as ICE sales are taken over. I think this is a bit exaggerated, but it may happen. As you point out, gas stations will diminish and many will fall into disuse. In my old city the core downtown has several old gas stations on corners which are now other places, a restaurant, an appliance repair store, etc. I guess the big chains like Sheetz will become charging facilities.

Gotta face facts. Oll wells, pipelines, tanker trucks and refineries are all horrible for the environment. The gassers are not paying their fair share to clean up all the pollution and health damage they are causing.

When the governments are forced to clean up their cities, then the dawn of the EV will truly be the only solution.

I won't argue that. I don't think it will require forcing. I think the BEV is reaching parity with gas vehicles and in 5 to 10 years they will become the obvious transportation choice. Many will hold out sticking with old familiar, but in 20 years I expect there will barely be an ICE automobile sold for personal use. The irony is, the trucking industry may beat us to it. The advantages of BEV may be more useful for trucking than they are for personal cars. There are several companies coming out with large BEV trucks and the industry already has orders in for demo units. Big trucks will need a lot fewer charger locations and charging them should be very profitable. No hauling gas or diesel in other trucks... just a convenient spot on the highway with a direct connection to a high voltage transmission line.

 

[juliusa]

You are only focusing on one issue, charger congestion. The entire country needs more stations in order to facilitate travel.

Where? Mostly covered in 2017.

How many more Tesla cars do they have???

Less than 5x what they had at the beginning of the year.

Take a breath, man. Superchargers are doing just fine.

I'm currently long on Tesla, but I expect to be selling my stocks as soon as I meet the long term gains requirements.

Well that explains why you are such a nervous nelly. You have invested money in something you don't have any clue about.

 

[gnuarm]

Where? Mostly covered in 2017.

That's only true if you look at it as a pretty picture on a map. I tried planning a trip to Kentucky and the route I wanted to take required me to go well out of my way to reach a charger. But the bigger problem that I've posted numerous times and you continue to ignore is that currently many routes require you to pick a charger from units 100+ miles apart. So instead of being able to use the range in the battery, you are force to stop many, many more times that drivers would like. Yeah, if you don't mind stopping three times for 20 minutes each instead of once for an hour and getting a meal while you do it fine. But that is YOU and most drivers aren't going to like that. That is going to be a barrier to acceptance by the vast majority of the public. They actually have to sell these things you know.

Less than 5x what they had at the beginning of the year.

Take a breath, man. Superchargers are doing just fine.

But they aren't. You say the stalls have grown by 5x and still haven't kept up with demand. I think you need to rethink you analysis.

Well that explains why you are such a nervous nelly. You have invested money in something you don't have any clue about.

Lol! I'm making a 40% return on my money if Musk doesn't blow it again.

It's funny that you want to call names rather than discuss the facts. I guess you prefer to keep your head in the sand and ignore the reality.

 

[juliusa]

But that is YOU and most drivers aren't going to like that.

BEV is in it's infancy. Give it another 5 years before it is ready for MOST drivers. Right now it is for the privliged few. For the rare occasion where the BEV is not convenient, people drive one of their other cars or rent one. Just like they rent a truck when they need one. BEV will continue to occupy a niche market for the next several years, which is just fine. Tesla is delivering cars as fast as they can make them for the forseeable future.

But they aren't. You say the stalls have grown by 5x and still haven't kept up with demand. I think you need to rethink you analysis.

They are doing just fine. Stalls have grown faster than number of cars, but more cars are charging at superchargers for various reasons. No big deal.

Fact is superchargers are NOT the limiting factor for Tesla sales yesterday, today, or for the next year.

 

[gnuarm]

BEV is in it's infancy. Give it another 5 years before it is ready for MOST drivers. Right now it is for the privliged few. For the rare occasion where the BEV is not convenient, people drive one of their other cars or rent one. Just like they rent a truck when they need one. BEV will continue to occupy a niche market for the next several years, which is just fine. Tesla is delivering cars as fast as they can make them for the forseeable future.

You are right that BEVs are only for the rare breed for the most part and that is the issue. I've explained this many times already. You clearly have no interest in the facts. Few people are going to pay top dollar for a car they find less convenient than the car they have now. Just give that a little thought. Electric cars sound great until you find out that you have to add 25% to the time for any longer trips and you have to actually plan your route to make sure there will be charging available without going off your shortest route. Then there are the issues of cold weather which people aren't used to.

As more people buy these cars and learn the truth about their many eccentricities which they share with their friends, selling will get harder, not easier. Much about electric cars is better than ICE, but the one glaring issue is charging and anyone who scratches the surface will find that out.

I was just reading about someone in CA who is having a hard time getting any sort of electricity to charge her Tesla. She works at home and really the car just doesn't suit her lifestyle. She was a pioneer and now is looking at paying big bucks to install a 240 volt, 20 A outlet in her apartment building for her own use. How many will be doing that... nearly none.

They are doing just fine. Stalls have grown faster than number of cars, but more cars are charging at superchargers for various reasons. No big deal.

Fact is superchargers are NOT the limiting factor for Tesla sales yesterday, today, or for the next year.

You keep looking at today and saying that in spite of the long lines in some places that things are fine. The reality is things are not headed in the right direction. You are right, it won't be a big deal for a year, but I've been saying that all along. Things can get much worse in a year or two as the higher sales continues to outstrip charging. If Tesla doesn't step up their installations across the country and in the dense areas, the limitation of charging their cars will become an eyesore for all, as it is now for those living in the dense areas or many types of housing.

As I also keep saying, the issue of charging isn't just an issue of making it harder to sell Teslas, but it is the only reason to prefer a Tesla over the many types of cars that will be on the market in 2020. I've seen this in many technology sectors where an upstart gets the ball rolling, then the big players take the ball away and play their own game. The big automakers will have many models out by 2020 and in another two years will have charging comparable to what Tesla has, maybe sooner. They have the clout to bring multiple vehicles to market when Tesla has to work on one car at a time. For the next four years or so Tesla will be walking on financial eggs. If they don't maintain a charging advantage they won't be able to compete against big iron once they start cranking out the BEVs.

Read a little in the financial pages. They don't rate Tesla's potential because they build good cars alone. They are rating them highly because they have the only charging network useful for trips and they have the lead in autonomous driving which is facilitated by all the miles Tesla drivers are testing the Tesla "auto pilot". That's why they offer it now. It's not really a good product, but this is how they get the software beta tested with millions or maybe billions of miles. The cars themselves aren't what make the company a good investment partly because that can turn around 100% in just five years.

BTW, did you know insurance is significantly higher on Teslas? Yeah. That's right, they both crash more often and are more expensive to repair. So what's up with the higher crash rate?

 

[Big Earl]

You guys are talking past one another.

Is the Supercharger network the best EV charging network in the world? Absolutely.

Does it need to expand at a more rapid rate than what we've seen in the past six months to support sales growth similar to what we've seen in that same time period? Absolutely.

Is Tesla working on it? It appears so. There are numerous locations currently under construction, even more locations permitted for construction and a commitment from Elon to double the network it in a year [maybe, two years definitely].

We've been taking some pretty extensive road trips in our Model 3 in the Mid-Atlantic and Mid-West regions and have found it to be excellent. Yes, there could be more locations along the highways with better amenities, but I've never been stuck waiting or had to deal with range anxiety on a road trip.

The current state of EVs still isn't for everybody, mostly because Tesla is the only manufacturer really putting forth an effort both on vehicle production and the charging network. The next few years will be just as interesting as the last few years have been. I expect to see rapid expansion of the Supercharger network now that Tesla has a solid, cash-flow-positive route forward.

I think an even more pressing issue for Tesla is service. They're working on that, too.

 

[Big Earl]

BTW, did you know insurance is significantly higher on Teslas? Yeah. That's right, they both crash more often and are more expensive to repair. So what's up with the higher crash rate?

Off topic for the thread, but rates are not high for the Model 3. In my experience, insurance is less expensive than a VW Passat that was half its price. Insurance rates can vary widely among providers, with some quoting crazy high prices for no apparent reason.

 

[Tic-tac-toe]

Off topic for the thread, but rates are not high for the Model 3. In my experience, insurance is less expensive than a VW Passat that was half its price. Insurance rates can vary widely among providers, with some quoting crazy high prices for no apparent reason.

I was pleasantly surprised at the insurance rate I got for our MS P100D, too. MUCH lower than I expected but I shopped around. There was also a huge difference between insurance companies.

Also, we use the MS mostly for road trips, 300 miles+: I always find it puzzling why navigation always suggests multiple stops <30 minutes each. Annoying. Who drives like that? We usually stop once for an hour+ for a meal and a full charge, no different than when we used an ICE.

 

[Big Earl]

I was pleasantly surprised at the insurance rate I got for our MS P100D, too. MUCH lower than I expected but I shopped around. There was also a huge difference between insurance companies.

Also, we use the MS mostly for road trips, 300 miles+: I always find it puzzling why navigation always suggests multiple stops <30 minutes each. Annoying. Who drives like that? We usually stop once for an hour+ for a meal and a full charge, no different than when we used an ICE.

I drive like that.

We stop for 20 minutes about every 2 hours, as opposed to the nav's recommended 40-50 minutes every 3-4 hours. The dog prefers the more frequent stops, as well. What are we going to do for 50 minutes at Sheetz, anyway? I try to keep it between 12% and 60% most of the time, but i'll charge higher if the weather is bad, the distance between chargers is too long or the chargers have a significant detour off of the highway.

Edit: of course, we're in a Model 3 ... an X will take a bit more time at the chargers.

 

[Tic-tac-toe]

I drive like that.

We stop for 20 minutes about every 2 hours, as opposed to the nav's recommended 40-50 minutes every 3-4 hours. The dog prefers the more frequent stops, as well. What are we going to do for 50 minutes at Sheetz, anyway? I try to keep it between 12% and 60% most of the time, but i'll charge higher if the weather is bad, the distance between chargers is too long or the chargers have a significant detour off of the highway.

Edit: of course, we're in a Model 3 ... an X will take a bit more time at the chargers.

Lol! We usually stop at a mall like Springfield to SC, going South from DC, or a SC stop with multiple dining options, going North from DC. Never been to a Sheetz although I know that’s coming going West. Generally stop every 3 - 3.5 hrs: Restroom, food, & charge to nearly full ~310.

We have a tween but no dog although the kid is on a mission now to get one

 

[gnuarm]

Off topic for the thread, but rates are not high for the Model 3. In my experience, insurance is less expensive than a VW Passat that was half its price. Insurance rates can vary widely among providers, with some quoting crazy high prices for no apparent reason.

The model 3 hasn't been out there long enough to get much info. Give it a year or so. Then we'll see.

BTW, the high price wasn't my figure or personal experience. It was from an insurance trade group.

 

[gnuarm]

You guys are talking past one another.

Is the Supercharger network the best EV charging network in the world? Absolutely.

Does it need to expand at a more rapid rate than what we've seen in the past six months to support sales growth similar to what we've seen in that same time period? Absolutely.

Is Tesla working on it? It appears so. There are numerous locations currently under construction, even more locations permitted for construction and a commitment from Elon to double the network it in a year [maybe, two years definitely].

Elon Musk's commitments aren't worth much. He'll tell you that himself. View the 60 Minutes interview. He says exactly that! The point is that they have said they were going to double the network in 2017 and again in 2018 and the construction rate remains about the same.

It's all PR, no commitment at all.

We've been taking some pretty extensive road trips in our Model 3 in the Mid-Atlantic and Mid-West regions and have found it to be excellent. Yes, there could be more locations along the highways with better amenities, but I've never been stuck waiting or had to deal with range anxiety on a road trip.

The current state of EVs still isn't for everybody, mostly because Tesla is the only manufacturer really putting forth an effort both on vehicle production and the charging network. The next few years will be just as interesting as the last few years have been. I expect to see rapid expansion of the Supercharger network now that Tesla has a solid, cash-flow-positive route forward.

Yes, exactly. The current state accepted by those who have bought BEVs so far won't be acceptable to the masses. Any BEV maker will need to bring their A game.

The other car makers are serious contenders who are playing a long game. They know it is foolish for them to go against the grain of sharing the burden by building a proprietary charging system. It was essential for Tesla to build their own system because they would hardly be able to sell a car without one. That is the whole point. The big iron car makers know how to play the game and will be playing for real over the next few years. It isn't about what Tesla has now. It is about what Tesla will need in the next few years to head off major losses of car buyers. In just a few years every car company will be selling BEVs as if their fate depends on it... because it does.

I think an even more pressing issue for Tesla is service. They're working on that, too.

I only know my personal experience which has been good. I've heard some reports of problems with long waits, but I've received emails where Tesla is asking me to come in to fix things. I'm putting them off, not the other way around.

 

[gnuarm]

Lol! We usually stop at a mall like Springfield to SC, going South from DC, or a SC stop with multiple dining options, going North from DC. Never been to a Sheetz although I know that’s coming going West. Generally stop every 3 - 3.5 hrs: Restroom, food, & charge to nearly full ~310.

We have a tween but no dog although the kid is on a mission now to get one

I wish I could go 3.5 hours. The spacing of the chargers is often counter productive to that requiring me to go 10 or 20 miles more than I feel comfortable with. The range prediction seems to be pretty poor with the arrival charge number varying by 10% over the course of the leg. When I drove down Rt 81 I had to hit nearly every charger they had going to Tennessee and again in Knoxville. Well, the Knoxville stop is so I can charge up before reaching my friend's house. No chargers for 25 miles and she only has 120 V outlets. My thing is I can stop and eat while I do a full charge, but 20 minute charges are just wasted time for me.

Heck, tomorrow I'm headed to Rocky Mount NC and I'm having to tweak the numbers to get the durn thing to tell me I can go 180 miles without stopping to charge. The irony is I'm staying in a hotel that has the Rocky Mount Supercharger in the parking lot, but I might need to stop before I get there to make sure a 300 mile battery can get me 180 miles.