Supercharging ROI

[Gizmotoy]

What Nissan Dealerships have CHAdeMO?

Quite a few. They started with a pilot of 24 of them in early 2013, and now have over 100 in 24 markets, and are still expanding aggressively. The CHAdeMO network coming online in quantity was a major selling point for the new Leafs, so they want to show it off at their dealerships as well as use dealerships to grow the network.

Edit: Wanted to add that CHAdeMO has been available on the Leaf since 2011, it's just that very few paid for the option. What's new is they're pushing its roll-out, and touting the bigger network as a major feature. I wasn't very clear and changed the wording to reflect that.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

Remember to think outside of US as well. In Europe Nissan has a huge first mover advantage in charging network. Tesla is only getting started while there are hundreds (if not thousands) of CHAdeMO chargers available across EU. Already tiny Estonia here has ~200 of them and I'm already in queue for the CHAdeMO EU adapter for my Model S because of it. Remember that Tesla is a global company with global moves and competition so that has to be taken into account. But overall I agree, the 135kW chargers that Tesla installs and what they provide is extremely worthwhile so I do hope that they accelerate their SC rollout in EU and end up also creating a corridor through the east coast of baltic sea as well to complete the EU circle.

 

[David_Cary]

What I said they could do in no time is put the QCs in. I went on to describe how they could build a car to take further advantage of - obviously not quickly. I mentioned 2015 as a year ignoring the model year irregularities - certainly new models come out in the actual year at times.

Battery costs are hard to get a handle on.

Hey - I love what Tesla is doing. Thinking that other companies won't compete is crazy. I fail to see why so many people think Tesla can't be beat. Nissan has made serious mistakes. They also have some first mover advantage in charging in Japan and Europe. They have access to far more capital. They have a battery plant in the US that can expand to 200,000 batteries per year. The first mover advantage is not entirely Tesla's.

I personally would be surprised if a higher capacity battery was not in an Infiniti in 2 years. I would also be surprised if Nissan doesn't start publishing a dealer map with QCs within a year or so.

 

[RobStark]

Nissan has a market cap of $38B

2012 Profit of $4.1 B on $116B in revenue with a net profit margin of 3.56%.

I think the financial people at Nissan would consider it financially reckless to go all in on EVs.

They still need to spend money on future ICE vehicles and need a cash cushion for ongoing operations.

I don't see this massive financial advantage for Nissan.

Toyota on the other hand has $145B cash and cash equivalents on hand. $11.6B in profit on $266B in revenue, a net profit margin of 4.36% and a market cap of $200B. But they strongly believe in ICE Hybrids in the short term future and replacing ICE with Fuel Cells in their Synergy Drive Hybrid powertrains in the long term future.

If Nissan does have a national network of chargers they should at the very least put it on its website if not run commercials touting it as an advantage vs non-Tesla direct competitors like Spark, Fiat 500e etc.

 

[bob_p]

The ROI on superchargers shouldn't be based entirely on the savings of gas fuel vs. free electricity, because without superchargers, long distance driving really isn't practical with the Model S - and the alternative is to use other transportation - which makes the cost savings more significant.

With the superchargers, while the total driving time (driving plus recharging/refueling stops, and likely stops for bathroom or food/drinks) in the Model S may be a little longer, it's not significant enough to impact most long drives - and there is a lower cost in driving the Model S because supercharging is free vs. paying for gas.

But without the superchargers, then other transportation will have to be used. Assuming that you don't have an extra vehicle available - then the alternative is likely going to be flying and/or renting a car - either of which would be considerably more expensive. So for anyone planning to take their Model S for a long distance trip, if the availability of the superchargers makes it possible to use the Model S instead of flying or renting a car - the ROI is considerable...

 

[scaesare]

Quite a few. They started with a pilot of 24 of them in early 2013, and now have over 100 in 24 markets, and are still expanding aggressively .

Ah, OK.... earlier you had said:

They have 300 of them installed in the US.

As for the 100 that you mention now, are you sure they are already installed as you state? The following articles also state that 100 units number, but suggest that project started this summer, and isn't planned to be completed until April of 2014:

PCMag Article

Plugin Cars Article

Doing a quick search on some of the charging search sites of chademo stations in the US as a whole for ALL vendors (not just Nissan) would seem to indicate the 300 number can't be right... so I suspect those articles are probably accurate.

So, speaking of North America, Tesla lists 37 stations. Given that the number of bays at each station seems to range from 6-12 (I think I may have hear of one 4-bay location, and did a couple get expanded to 16?), I'd guess the average is probably 8 bays? If so, that's about 300 bays today. If the the articles above are accurate, I'd suspect Nissan might be about half way through their project.. so maybe 50-75 spots (including the original 24 pilot locations).

Nonetheless, Nissan's plans are interesting... thanks for the input. Some questions for anybody that might know:

- Is there typically more than a single charger at a site?

- If quick-charging is an option for the Leaf, any ideas how many are equipped with the capability?

- Does anybody know folks who use them, and under what circumstances?

(Incidentally, unless I missed it, Nissan doesn't make them easy to find....)

 

[scaesare]

What I said they could do in no time is put the QCs in. I went on to describe how they could build a car to take further advantage of - obviously not quickly. I mentioned 2015 as a year ignoring the model year irregularities - certainly new models come out in the actual year at times.

Well to be fair what you actually said was:

"If an Infiniti comes out in 2015 with a 50kw pack and free included supercharging for $40k, Tesla would have some competition. They could do it in a second."

That quote includes introducing the car and charging in the same sentence, and then qualifies both as being done in a second.

A 2015 intro for a car that's essentially Tesla's Gen III which they need ~3 more years to bring out and installing "500 superchargers in 3 months" (again your quote) is what I suggest are not only implausible, but near impossible.

Battery costs are hard to get a handle on.

CapitalistOpressor on these forums has done a pretty great job of analyzing this. Good reading if you are interested. There are some pretty compelling reasosn why Tesla has chosen the commodity form-factor they have.... price being a significant one.

Hey - I love what Tesla is doing. Thinking that other companies won't compete is crazy. I fail to see why so many people think Tesla can't be beat. Nissan has made serious mistakes. They also have some first mover advantage in charging in Japan and Europe. They have access to far more capital. They have a battery plant in the US that can expand to 200,000 batteries per year. The first mover advantage is not entirely Tesla's.

I personally would be surprised if a higher capacity battery was not in an Infiniti in 2 years. I would also be surprised if Nissan doesn't start publishing a dealer map with QCs within a year or so.

Your point about overseas lead is a good one (also echoed by Mario Kadastik). Nonethless, one of my premises was that "The range of the Model S along with the SC network really are enablers that set them apart from other EV's".

So while Inifiniti might have a higher capacity car in 2 years (again revised up from your 1 year claim), they will have introduced it 3 years after Tesla. It also then raises the issue that Gizmotoy brought up:

Nissan's optimizing for charging within the city, and Tesla for between cities, playing to the strengths of their respective EVs. Both will converge to full coverage eventually...

What is their strategy for intra-city travel? It appears that their plans are for a 100-charger rollout by next year. Tesla has 300 today. By next year it will be some multiple of that... and at sites that don't have the logistics issues I outlined earlier.

I'm not saying Nissan couldn't eventually do it... far from it actually. What I'm pointing out is that the first-mover advantage (at least here in N.A.) is substantial and not something easily negated just because another manufacturer has cash to throw around.

 

[Gizmotoy]

Yes, that's exactly what I meant. There are 300+ CHAdeMO stations, approximately 100 of which are at Nissan's dealers. Last I saw they were to be completed by December 2013, but I admit they may be behind again. Last I read on the Leaf forums a few months ago was that they were scrambling and significantly ahead of the original target because of the rumors the tax credit for businesses to build the stations may be let to expire 12/31/13.

Nissan itself also provides subsidies for third parties to install them, and in some cases provides them for free, to increase the network size. Many of those additional 200 were subsidized by Nissan in some way. Just because they're not at a Nissan dealership doesn't mean they didn't play some role in their deployment. Indeed, besides the low-volume Mitsubishi's i-Miev, I'm not aware of any car in the US besides the Leaf that even supports CHAdeMO.

Anyway, that was the basis for my comment. If you're comparing based on "spots," be aware that a number of CHAdeMO installations are dual port, so have two "spots." The couple I know of that have multiple ports are listed as single installations on the CHAdeMO site, where the 300+ number originates.

 

[scaesare]

Yes, that's exactly what I meant. There are 300+ CHAdeMO stations, approximately 100 of which are at Nissan's dealers. Last I saw they were to be completed by December 2013, but I admit they may be behind again. Last I read on the Leaf forums a few months ago was that they were scrambling and significantly ahead of the original target because of the rumors the tax credit for businesses to build the stations may be let to expire 12/31/13.

Nissan itself also provides subsidies for third parties to install them, and in some cases provides them for free, to increase the network size. Many of those additional 200 were subsidized by Nissan in some way. Just because they're not at a Nissan dealership doesn't mean they didn't play some role in their deployment. Indeed, besides the low-volume Mitsubishi's i-Miev, I'm not aware of any car in the US besides the Leaf that even supports CHAdeMO.

Anyway, that was the basis for my comment.

OK, gotcha. The "They" in your post seemed to be referring to Nissan.... so that makes more sense.

So any thoughts on how many Chademo-enabled cars (by volume) there are in the US? Is it an option on the Mitsubishi's as it is on the Leaf?

 

[Gizmotoy]

OK, gotcha. The "They" in your post seemed to be referring to Nissan.... so that makes more sense.
So any thoughts on how many Chademo-enabled cars (by volume) there are in the US? Is it an option on the Mitsubishi's as it is on the Leaf?

Yeah, I wasn't very clear. Sorry about that. They as in Nissan are the primary proponent for CHAdeMO at this time, so that was my mindset, but I definitely could have been clearer.

I doubt very many. It's optional on the i-Miev as well. Up until recently, selection of the option on the Leaf was scarce as well because the network wasn't there. I doubt if the installed base is much more than a tiny fraction of all BEVs on the road right now. I'm in the Bay Area, and I think I've seen one in use a grand total of once.

That said, I'd like to be able to use them, and will definitely consider the adapter when Tesla releases it. Most of them, at least around here, are free to charge, and the ability for installation in destinations makes them attractive.

 

[scaesare]

Yeah, I wasn't very clear. Sorry about that. They as in Nissan are the primary proponent for CHAdeMO at this time, so that was my mindset, but I definitely could have been clearer.

I doubt very many. It's optional on the i-Miev as well. Up until recently, selection of the option on the Leaf was scarce as well because the network wasn't there. I doubt if the installed base is much more than a tiny fraction of all BEVs on the road right now. I'm in the Bay Area, and I think I've seen one in use a grand total of once.

That said, I'd like to be able to use them, and will definitely consider the adapter when Tesla releases it. Most of them, at least around here, are free to charge, and the ability for installation in destinations makes them attractive.

Yeah, it would be a nice option for charging in a pinch, but too bad the adapter is so expensive.

It is a bit of chicken-and-egg scenario I guess... if the majority of the cars don't have the option, and there weren't that many chargers...

That having been said, I wonder how accurate the Chademo Association's numbers are. They list 306 chargers in the US, but the map doesn't show the NRG Chademo station that's about 15 minutes from me here in VA...

 

[scaesare]

The interesting thing is now we can drive to Palm Springs... for free! Two day (17 hour) drive of about 1050 miles. See some country as you go, and have an awesome car to drive while we're there.

...SNIP...

Some hidden ROI vs. alt opportunity costs.

Indeed... have you made this trip?

 

[JohnQ]

The ROI on superchargers shouldn't be based entirely on the savings of gas fuel vs. free electricity, because without superchargers, long distance driving really isn't practical with the Model S - and the alternative is to use other transportation - which makes the cost savings more significant.

With the superchargers, while the total driving time (driving plus recharging/refueling stops, and likely stops for bathroom or food/drinks) in the Model S may be a little longer, it's not significant enough to impact most long drives - and there is a lower cost in driving the Model S because supercharging is free vs. paying for gas.

But without the superchargers, then other transportation will have to be used. Assuming that you don't have an extra vehicle available - then the alternative is likely going to be flying and/or renting a car - either of which would be considerably more expensive. So for anyone planning to take their Model S for a long distance trip, if the availability of the superchargers makes it possible to use the Model S instead of flying or renting a car - the ROI is considerable...

I disagree with this. If Tesla did not have superchargers available I would not own a Tesla as my sole vehicle. Since my wife has an ICE, I would simply take that one and the cost would be gas. In fact, you could argue that the cost to drive the minivan is less since it's 10 years old and the depreciation hit of 1,800 miles would be far less than on the Tesla. An unfair comparison, of course, since you have to compare the same vehicle type and age.

 

[dfitz206]

BMW and GM are also working on superchargers, not just Nissan/CHAdeMO. Three standards?

http://www.imakenews.com/bmwseattle/e_article002810181.cfm?x=bn1s2qL,btph0V1g

 

[montgom626]

Depreciation is the largest cost of owning a car.

 

[dfitz206]

Depreciation is the largest cost of owning a car.

Because of newness, resale market and especially wear/tear on the engine. No engine, no known resale market--do we have any idea how mileage #s (long trips for free on superchargers) will affect depreciation on Model S?

 

[scaesare]

BMW and GM are also working on superchargers, not just Nissan/CHAdeMO. Three standards?

http://www.imakenews.com/bmwseattle/e_article002810181.cfm?x=bn1s2qL,btph0V1g

Well to be clear, the "standard" for SAE fast charging (aka "Frankenplug") already exists, just as was the case for Chademo. BMW and GM are choosing this particular standard, just as Nissan and Mitsubishi did for Chademo in their cars.

So yeah, 3 standards, if you count Tesla's. And to quote Elon: "SAE's solution sucks."

- - - Updated - - -

Depreciation is the largest cost of owning a car.

What in the world does that have to do with this thread?

 

[David_Cary]

Since we are splitting hairs, it looks like I never mentioned 2015 as a model year but as a release date - so I was always talking 2 years. The in a second was mentioned right after the release date of the car in 2015 -- what I was referring to is that they could probably make the decision now (in a second) to get the car out in 2 years.

The 500 number comes from the press release in 1/13 which had that as a goal for 18 months from then - ie 7/2014. That was a total number - not a dealer number.

But given the will, since they have the footprint already, they could get QCs dispersed fairly quickly.

I certainly don't know but would be surprised if the large commercial footprint of a Nissan dealership would need transformer upgrades to do QC. I'm sure some older ones might but most probably wouldn't. A permit in my neck of the woods might take 3 weeks and we have a pretty hard ass (relative to the rest of the state) permitting office. Surely in NY/CA, it might take 3 months or more.

Anyone know the difference in R&D dollars invested by Tesla vs Nissan for the Leaf. I'd be surprised if Tesla's was higher. I feel like the Leaf R&D was over $2 billion. I'm not suggesting that the outcomes are equivalent but just suggesting that Nissan has deeper pockets. You can't really compare a company with no significant recorded profit to a company with a profit recorded in the billions of dollars.

I'm certainly not sure that Nissan has what it takes to be a large scale EV manufacturer but I'm not sure Tesla does either. Competition is good for all of us (except perhaps stock holders).

 

[stopcrazypp]

Well this thread has kind of gone all off topic, but on the subject of Nissan's strategy vs Tesla, I think its been shown that dealer chargers aren't comparable to dedicated chargers (of any type). There's a couple of things: you need permission to use it, there may be cars blocking it (quite likely at a dealership), the person responsible sometimes is not immediate available, it's only open during business hours, etc. Plus the big thing is they are not supercharger equivalents in power (but rather no different than other public 50kW chargers). It does not really offer an exclusive feature for Nissan.

 

[scaesare]

I'm not trying split hairs, actually. I'm taking what you stated as what you meant, and don't believe the scenario you are painting is supportable, and supplying my own evidence as to why.

I'm afraid, you are revsing history a bit however. For example now you are claiming that your "in a second" phrase has to do with how quickly Nissan could make the decision, and was never an attempt to describe how rapidly they could roll things out:

Since we are splitting hairs, it looks like I never mentioned 2015 as a model year but as a release date - so I was always talking 2 years. The in a second was mentioned right after the release date of the car in 2015 -- what I was referring to is that they could probably make the decision now (in a second) to get the car out in 2 years.

Yet when we look at your original quote:

If an Infiniti comes out in 2015 with a 50kw pack and free included supercharging for $40k, Tesla would have some competition. They could do it in a second.

I then challenged your assertion they could install or release that quickly... and rather than correct my mis-understanding and letting us know you were referring to the decision, you instead stood by your assertion they had the resources for a roll out:

They could do it very quickly if not a second. They have the resources to do it. Not saying they are going to but they could.

Odd that you would wait 2 days and nearly 40 posts to go by before deciding your assertion was that they could simply make a quick decision.

The 500 number comes from the press release in 1/13 which had that as a goal for 18 months from then - ie 7/2014. That was a total number - not a dealer number.

Again, I can only take you at your words, which don't seem to agree with what you now claim.:

Except that Nissan (as an example) could install 500 superchargers in 3 months if they really wanted to

Finally, you state regarding permitting:

Surely in NY/CA, it might take 3 months or more.

On this we agree... as it was one of the things I pointed out that makes your earlier assertion that Nissan could install 500 chargers in 3 months implausible. Permitting alone in a not-insignificant number of locations would likely derail this. Then you have to allow for contractor schedule, local utilities hookups, inspections, etc... Tesla has been at this for a while now and they still are challenged in getting through the process as quickly as they'd like in many locales.

Your point is well taken: Nissan has deep pockets and if they wanted they can throw significant resources at this. They also have some locations to take advantage of.

My point is that money doesn't solve all the problems or make time stand still. And there are a number of significant pieces to the charger/vehicle value proposition that Tesla has a lead on. Your assertions are that the lead can be overcome in almost no time don't hold water, and attempting to re-define your statements after the fact don't change that.