Supercharging ROI

[N4HHE]

Am sorry, but I don't follow your math or reasoning.

In the first half-year of owning my S, I've used the SC's 6 times. As mentioned, I then used on for the 7th time 3 days in to the second half of my first year. That puts me on track to use the SC's a dozen times in a year. One of the trips was a little unusual and unexpected, so I'll lower the projection to 10 times/yr on average.

In each of those cases, supercharging enabled me to take the Model S on a road trip that normally we would have taken in the family SUV, a Toyota Sequoia, which gets ~15-17MPG.

OK, so we have established replacing gasoline for the SUV with 10 visits the the Supercharger. Here is where I lose your reasoning:

Each of those trips would have required an initial fuel-up of the Sequoia's 25 gallon tank.

Initial fill doesn't count, it was for other uses than the one under discussion. Superchargers or not you still have to fill the SUV as long as you keep it and continue to use it.

Fuel has been near $4 around hear earlier this year, but is now about $3.25. Using $3.50 as an average, I'll avoid paying $875 this year in road-trip fuel costs.

$875 is a questionable number because you are charging around town miles in the SUV to the trip.

$875 / $3.50 = 250 gallons of gasoline at 15 MPG is 3750 miles. This doesn't compute as you said 10 uses of the Supercharger? Thats 375 miles per use.

Of course, my cost to charge the S before leaving is about $8, so I'm still in excess of $800 ahead.

Filling the SUV before the trip doesn't count. Filling the MS before the trip doesn't count. Filling after does count. But not knowing the number of trips or their length lets guess there are 10 trips each of which has one $8 fill at home upon return, for $80. So rather than $875 its $795 in savings.

In each of those cases I am able able to supercharge the S along the way for free. In many of those cases I would have needed another gas stop for the SUV. Because the range of the SUV is ~400 miles, as opposed to ~265 for the S, I'll try to be conservative and say only half of the time I would need the second fuel-up. Avoiding that will me and additional $437.50.

What? Too much guesswork. This is simply not the way to calculate this sort of thing. How long is the trip? MPG? $/gallon? None of this "sometimes I do and sometimes I don't have to fill the tank again."

So assuming that my experience thus far for the year hold, and my projections are at least in the ball park, I'll be ahead to the tune of $1312.50. Let's call it $1250, again to be conservative.

By this time the numbers have been stretched and twisted beyond meaning.

Lets do it differently:

3750 miles per year of trips in the SUV which can be replaced by the Model S on the Supercharger network.
$3.50/gallon for gasoline
15 MPG
$875/year displaced by the Supercharger.

Neglecting interest rates:
$2000/$875 = 2.3 years.

Its that simple.

My SUV gets 29 MPG on diesel which is best guestimated at $4.00/gallon. No Superchargers on my usual routes until late 2015. No matter the Prius gets 45 MPG on the same trip using cheap gasoline, the SUV is more comfortable, stops faster, and has AWD. So no matter my SUV costs $60 more per 1000 miles for fuel, thats only about $30/day so thats my choice. Besides, my forthcoming Model S needs the Prius's spot in the garage.

Provided that Tesla is able to flesh out it's supercharging plan completely, and continue to make it financially viable to make them free (and convenient) for the long term, the supercharging infrastructure is an immensely valuable part of the equation... both to Tesla and for owners. It really is a remarkable strategy.

My concern is that long before all announced locations are built in 2015 the early locations will have too much demand, long "gas lines" waiting for a charge.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Since we are splitting hairs, it looks like I never mentioned 2015 as a model year but as a release date - so I was always talking 2 years. The in a second was mentioned right after the release date of the car in 2015 -- what I was referring to is that they could probably make the decision now (in a second) to get the car out in 2 years.

Unlikely no matter the definition. They just recently put the 2015 Infiniti LE (basically a luxury Leaf) on hold because they determined the range to not be enough for the segment. They are waiting for improved tech and I doubt it'll be ready that quickly (2015 release date implies only a year delay).
http://www.greencarreports.com/news...le-luxury-leaf-sedan-put-on-hold-indefinitely

 

[scaesare]

Well this thread has kind of gone all off topic...

Indeed.... I actually started this to try and quantify the value of the superchargers...

 

[772]

Lets do it differently:

3750 miles per year of trips in the SUV which can be replaced by the Model S on the Supercharger network.
$3.50/gallon for gasoline
15 MPG
$875/year displaced by the Supercharger.

Neglecting interest rates:
$2000/$875 = 2.3 years.

Its that simple.

My SUV gets 29 MPG on diesel which is best guestimated at $4.00/gallon. No Superchargers on my usual routes until late 2015. No matter the Prius gets 45 MPG on the same trip using cheap gasoline, the SUV is more comfortable, stops faster, and has AWD. So no matter my SUV costs $60 more per 1000 miles for fuel, thats only about $30/day so thats my choice. Besides, my forthcoming Model S needs the Prius's spot in the garage.

These numbers make sense, but consider also the fact that you have to keep an SUV as a secondary vehicle and the costs associated with doing so. That means insurance, maintenance, lease payments/depreciation, etc. Part of the rationale behind getting the SC option is to replace the need for an ICE car. Factor all of those additional costs in and you make up the $2,000 cost much faster.

 

[scaesare]

Initial fill doesn't count, it was for other uses than the one under discussion. Superchargers or not you still have to fill the SUV as long as you keep it and continue to use it.

Sure it does. If there's a supercharger along my way, I start it with my model S and a full battery that cost me $8 (a value I acknowledged in my original post), whereas if there isn't a supercharger, I have to start out in my SUV with a full tank of gas. Those first several hunderd miles of road trip have to come from somewhere.

$875 is a questionable number because you are charging around town miles in the SUV to the trip.

In each of the cases where around town miles were incurred, I had destination charging at my hotel. Had there not been a supercharger that allowed the long-distance travel to get there, I couldn't have taken the S. While not explicitly quantifying "around town miles" my examples, if anything if you can take advantage of free hotel charging, those are again points in the favor of supercharging allowing you to take your S to a destination.

$875 / $3.50 = 250 gallons of gasoline at 15 MPG is 3750 miles. This doesn't compute as you said 10 uses of the Supercharger? That's 375 miles per use.

Filling the SUV before the trip doesn't count. Filling the MS before the trip doesn't count. Filling after does count. But not knowing the number of trips or their length lets guess there are 10 trips each of which has one $8 fill at home upon return, for $80. So rather than $875 its $795 in savings.

I'm not claiming an exact analog. There is certainly destination driving. There is destination charging (so far free for me). There are likely residual charges in the pack as well as residual amounts of gasoline in the tanks.

This is one of the reasons I rounded downward for number of trips I'd take in a year, as well as as for the sum of the costs for a year.

W
Lets do it differently:

...SNIP...

$2000/$875 = 2.3 years.

Well, I disagree with the numbers you chose to use for the reasons I mention above, but regardless.... if I ROI the supercharger investment at less than half way in to the loan duration, I'm good with that.

 

[montgom626]

Because of newness, resale market and especially wear/tear on the engine. No engine, no known resale market--do we have any idea how mileage #s (long trips for free on superchargers) will affect depreciation on Model S?

Best guess is 50% after 5 years.

 

[SCW-Greg]

Indeed... have you made this trip?

Not yet, been waiting for the build out. I think we will go this March. Totally looking forward to it!

 

[vfx]

...Edit: Wanted to add that CHAdeMO has been available on the Leaf since 2011, it's just that very few paid for the option.....

I thought I had read that 90% of the original Leaf buyers got the quick charge plug enabled. It's pretty typical for buyers to do that type of future upgrade. Not too dissimilar to most Teslas being 85s.

 

[Gizmotoy]

I thought I had read that 90% of the original Leaf buyers got the quick charge plug enabled. It's pretty typical for buyers to do that type of future upgrade. Not too dissimilar to most Teslas being 85s.

Huh. We obviously read the same thing. I had recalled reading only 10% of buyers bought the fast charge option. One of us misunderstood. After a quick search, looks like it was me.

 

[vfx]

Unlikely no matter the definition. They just recently put the 2015 Infiniti LE (basically a luxury Leaf) on hold because they determined the range to not be enough for the segment. They are waiting for improved tech and I doubt it'll be ready that quickly (2015 release date implies only a year delay).
http://www.greencarreports.com/news...le-luxury-leaf-sedan-put-on-hold-indefinitely

Last year I was in a room full of EV owners Mini, Leaf, DIY and Tesla Roadster (this was pre June MS deliveries) In this focus group they asked us questions about driving EVS and what was important. Later they showed us the Infiniti they were going to release. We with the Teslas were saying a no compromise car should have at least 200 mile range or don't bother making it. The other EV owners were happy around 100 mile range but agree with us that 200 miles fell under the "no compromise" banner the questioner kept holding up.

A few months later Tesla started delivering a no compromise car with a 265-300 mile range and the Infiniti was put on hold. The Nissan rep had been talking to us about a 100 mile range luxury car and asking if would we be OK with a smaller trunk for 20 more miles.

Tesla is simply embarrassing the rest of the automakers.

- - - Updated - - -

.. After a quick search, looks like it was me.

Whew!

That never happens.

 

[Caboom]

I just came back from the bay area and stopped at the Tejon Ranch SC and 2 of the bays definitely didn't work. there were 3 vehicles there and we all had to re adjust so that we could charge...luckily one of the cars was charging and pulled away as we were trying to figure out if it was our car or the charger. As soon as other car left we pulled into empty space and had no problems with charge.

 

[VolkerP]

Interesting thread and discussion!

WRT supercharger ROI
all things touched but great discussion.

WRT 90% of all LEAFs equipped with the CHAdeMO QC port:
It appears a wise decision by Tesla to include the supercharger hardware in every car, to be enabled after delivery on these 60kWh models ordered without the option. No buyer remorse "if only I'd ordered that option!"

WRT competition from Renault/NISSAN:
Undoubtedly Carlos Ghosn made them a first mover in the EV market. But with the legacy ICE fleet, they are between two stones. Maintaining two propulsion concepts will eat deeply into R&D budgets, and the decision which one to favor doesn't come easy.

WRT competition from other car makers:
Audi pulled the R8 etron (fully electric) after 12 units produced, with battery costs stated as a reason.
Nissan pulled the Infinity EV
Toyota claims FCEV is the way to go
BMW launches the i3 which is carefully designed not to appeal to existing BMW owners
Porsche makes some half-assed hybrids at outrageous price points
Daimler buys the Tesla drivetrain after researching electric propulsion for 30 years

that leaves us with... BYD? :biggrin:

 

[scaesare]

Unlikely no matter the definition. They just recently put the 2015 Infiniti LE (basically a luxury Leaf) on hold because they determined the range to not be enough for the segment. They are waiting for improved tech and I doubt it'll be ready that quickly (2015 release date implies only a year delay).
http://www.greencarreports.com/news...le-luxury-leaf-sedan-put-on-hold-indefinitely

Very interesting... particularly since that article states that Infiniti was going to ship with the SAME battery as the Leaf, thus a 24kWh pack. Any ideas what the price had been planned for? (Any bet's on over or under $40K? )

 

[N4HHE]

These numbers make sense, but consider also the fact that you have to keep an SUV as a secondary vehicle and the costs associated with doing so. That means insurance, maintenance, lease payments/depreciation, etc. Part of the rationale behind getting the SC option is to replace the need for an ICE car. Factor all of those additional costs in and you make up the $2,000 cost much faster.

Thats an argument I have used on myself concluding I should sell the Prius and keep the ML320BT, before deciding to replace the Prius with a Model S (estimated delivery: Dec 19). In 7 years I have driven the Prius 61,000 miles, and less in recent years. At 8,000 miles/year tax, tag, insurance, and gasoline for the Prius at $3.50/gallon is approximately the same as diesel at 22 MPG and $4.00/gallon. Guessing capital depreciation on the Prius is approximately the added depreciation and maintenance on the Mercedes-Benz (which holds its resale value like a lead balloon).

I didn't have a truck or SUV until I started riding dirtbikes. Don't feel comfortable doing this sort of thing with a Model S, or even an X. So I don't really have the SUV to compensate for current lack of long distance range of the Model S:

Posted these as links because not everyone needs/wants to download my pictures.

http://home.hiwaay.net/~dkelly/ML320BT/ML320BT_Trailer_6.jpg
http://home.hiwaay.net/~dkelly/ML320BT/ML320_with_4500_pound_trailer.jpg
http://home.hiwaay.net/~dkelly/ML320BT/F250_with_Hobbi.jpg
http://home.hiwaay.net/~dkelly/dirtbike/Hotdog_2007_1.jpg
http://home.hiwaay.net/~dkelly/dirtbike/Hotdog_2007_2.jpg

 

[AudubonB]

that leaves us with... BYD? :biggrin:

Sure! Of course, you all know that stands for Better on (or Bring) Your Dogsled........

 

[N4HHE]

Sure it does. If there's a supercharger along my way, I start it with my model S and a full battery that cost me $8 (a value I acknowledged in my original post), whereas if there isn't a supercharger, I have to start out in my SUV with a full tank of gas. Those first several hunderd miles of road trip have to come from somewhere.

...

Well, I disagree with the numbers you chose to use for the reasons I mention above, but regardless.... if I ROI the supercharger investment at less than half way in to the loan duration, I'm good with that.

I just think your accounting is questionable. Filling an SUV before a trip should not count on that trip unless you return the SUV with the tank exactly the same state of fill as when you started. Today I realize I was assuming everyone accounted for such things pretty much the same as with a rental car. They give you the car with (supposedly) full tank and expect it to be returned with a full tank. I always start trips with a full tank and fill again on return, even for my own vehicles. Full tank to full tank is a reproducible condition.

MPG, $/gallon, and miles driven gives an accurate number which eliminates other uses. Similarly it would be best to account for the Model S using Wh/mile, $/kWh, and miles driven, using $0/kWh for Supercharger segments.

When Superchargers appear in Nashville and Louisville I'll probably drive Alabama to Indiana. But I'd really like one on the east side of Indianapolis for comfort.

 

[vfx]

...
Undoubtedly Carlos Ghosn made them a first mover in the EV market....

So the Roadster does not count?

Toyota claims FCEV is the way to go

They are so schizophrenic. They have the Tesla RAV4 too.

 

[scaesare]

I thought I had read that 90% of the original Leaf buyers got the quick charge plug enabled. It's pretty typical for buyers to do that type of future upgrade. Not too dissimilar to most Teslas being 85s.

That's interesting... it is a pretty compelling option, as long as you have reasonable confidence in the availability of the network as compared to the cost. I wonder what marketing was done to folks on this.

I suppose it would be particularly attractive in a shorter-range vehicle as well...

 

[jerry33]

They have the Tesla RAV4 too.

Only because the government forced them to, so getting drivetrains from Tesla was their easiest way out. They have lobbied against electric cars since there were electric cars.

 

[VolkerP]

Undoubtedly Carlos Ghosn made them a first mover in the EV market....

So the Roadster does not count?

You have a point there...

But I was more into mentioning that Renault/Nissan is not the typical incumbent car manufacturer here that does alt fuel vehicles only as a compliance dictates.