Tesla’s Production outlook for Q2 ??

[DanL3]

So, with the latest news 200K in May is very likely.

So Where did this "latest news" come from? There is not an official talley, it is all estimates. I do not dispute the possibility of 200K in May, but from what I see it is still a guess and 200K in June is just as likely and posponing to July 1st is not out of the question.

It is OK for you to have your guess and me to have mine until some clear data appears.

 

[FloridaJohn]

Let's just assume that they are not producing any cars this week, and there was a report of another planned shutdown in May. Let's assume that is a week as well. There are 13 weeks in this quarter. Subtracting the two weeks of shutdowns gives us 11 weeks of production left. We'll also assume that the last week of the quarter doesn't count as well, since none of those can be delivered before the end of the quarter. That leaves 10 weeks of production.

Let's assume for the sake of argument that there are 24,000 cars left to go until we reach 200k delivered. That is a weekly rate of production of around 2400 cars, which is pretty much where they are right now. Add in domestic S & X production/deliveries, and subtract Canadian 3 deliveries, and it is pretty close to 200k.

If Tesla does what they say they are trying to do, and increase the weekly production, that average weekly rate will rise above 2400, making the situation worse.

Like I said earlier in this thread, there is a path to hitting 200k after July 1, but it's a pretty tight rope between ramping production and not exceeding 200k. I don't think mass storage of cars is going to be the answer, either. Especially not this early in the quarter.

 

[Moderatefan]

So Where did this "latest news" come from? There is not an official talley, it is all estimates.

Yes, estimates. I believe the tally mostly comes from here: Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard
If you sum up over the years, you get by the end of 2018 Q1:
123447(S) + 44252(X) + 9952(3) + 1900(Roadster) = 179,551

So, 20.5K total left until 200K.
@Q1 end:
- 4,060 Model S and X vehicles were in transit (I think we can assume for simplicity 10K of S/X are sold in U.S. each quarter; based on Q1 worldwide totals were 11,730 Model S, 10,070 Model X, of which ~50% goes to U.S., per insideevs that's 9,800)
- 2,040 Model 3 vehicles were in transit

Current plans of Musk(email here Tesla Model 3 production aims for 6,000 units per week in June after upgrade in May – ~5,000 with margin of error, says Elon Musk) are:
Apr: 2k+/week
May: 3-4k/week
June: 6k/week by EOM, but lets assume 3-4K until the last week and the last 6K will be in transit.

3-5 days of suspended production in Apr and another in May, lets assume also 3-5 days.
So, in April 4 weeks + 2 days, lets assume production is 8K, since they exceed 2K a bit.
In May and June, 8 weeks + 4 days, we get a min of 3K*7=21K or max 4K*7=28K (subtracting last week for "in transit")

Total M3 in Q2:
Min=8K+21K+2K(in transit from Q1) = 31K
Max=8K+28K+2K=38K

Total S/X in Q2: 10K
-----------------------------------
Total delivered in Q2 = 41K or 48K

So, we are ~20K or ~27K over the 200K limit.

How many can Canada absorb? Someone mentioned they have 6 SCs. My assumption is they won't see many deliveries in April and in 2 remaining months even if they deliver 7 days per week, assuming 10 cars per day that's 6*61*10=3.5K.
If they deliver twice as many @20 cars day (I think this is challenging), then 7K.

We still have 13-20K cars that cannot be delivered not to cross 200K.

I believe only about 5K max can be stored in SCs parking lots (only 75 SCs shown here US Tesla Service Centers | Tesla)

I think it is going to be very challenging to keep these extra cars parked somewhere and not delivered until 7/1. But maybe it will happen.

 

[DanL3]

Yes, Mederatefan, I have seen all these estimations before and I believe that this is the best estimate that we have. However we really have no way of knowing for sure. To start with we do not know if Tesla's calculations match InsiderEV numbers. Tesla may have some justification for not including some of those 179K cars. Tesla may interpret other rules about what is included or not included differently than others do. We will just need to wait and see.

 

[DanL3]

It looks like we are in the mid Q2 doldrums. No Invites, No VINs, Hard to get hold of an ISA. No word on if the factory restarted?

So is Tesla working on holding down deliveries for the Tax credit?? I do not know.

What I do expect is that Tesla is getting a surprise on how far through the reservations they are getting with invitations. So far they have invited all the USA and Canada April 1st 2016 reservation holders. Next they go into the first week of people that reserved at a much lower rate Tesla will be into mid April invitations within 2 weeks if they invite at the rate they did before the factory shutdown. After that they will be inviting people much faster than the reservations were made.

So my guess is that they need to choose what they do next? Open up the config choices? Go through all reservations with the current configurations? or Something else??

More important they need to be looking at what production rate they want when all the reservations are gone? Can the ongoing sales support 6000/week? That is 300,000 per year. I would be thinking that they need to be getting their sales force going if that is what they want to do.

 

[fazluke]

It looks like we are in the mid Q2 doldrums. No Invites, No VINs, Hard to get hold of an ISA. No word on if the factory restarted?

So is Tesla working on holding down deliveries for the Tax credit?? I do not know.

What I do expect is that Tesla is getting a surprise on how far through the reservations they are getting with invitations. So far they have invited all the USA and Canada April 1st 2016 reservation holders. Next they go into the first week of people that reserved at a much lower rate Tesla will be into mid April invitations within 2 weeks if they invite at the rate they did before the factory shutdown. After that they will be inviting people much faster than the reservations were made.

So my guess is that they need to choose what they do next? Open up the config choices? Go through all reservations with the current configurations? or Something else??

More important they need to be looking at what production rate they want when all the reservations are gone? Can the ongoing sales support 6000/week? That is 300,000 per year. I would be thinking that they need to be getting their sales force going if that is what they want to do.

There are so many of 3/31 in store reservation holders are waiting not only for delivery but for VINs. Check other posts.

 

[DanL3]

There are so many of 3/31 in store reservation holders are waiting not only for delivery but for VINs. Check other posts.

Yes, All 3/31 people, as well as 4/1 people got invitations to configure. The last configuration flurry came last Wednesday. Then everything slowly came to a stop. Your VIN is stuck in that stoppage. I think Tesla is trying to figure out what to do next and you are stuck while they are thinking. In the next couple of days we will see something move and then you will get your VIN after that.

 

[fazluke]

Yes, All 3/31 people, as well as 4/1 people got invitations to configure. The last configuration flurry came last Wednesday. Then everything slowly came to a stop. Your VIN is stuck in that stoppage. I think Tesla is trying to figure out what to do next and you are stuck while they are thinking. In the next couple of days we will see something move and then you will get your VIN after that.

You speak as if you work for Tesla or have an inside info, thank you for your calming words.

Btw, I called Tesla 888 number and was informed that there is no update for me that they can provide now and I am still within my 3-6 weeks.

 

[LonestarV]

Yes, All 3/31 people, as well as 4/1 people got invitations to configure. The last configuration flurry came last Wednesday. Then everything slowly came to a stop. Your VIN is stuck in that stoppage. I think Tesla is trying to figure out what to do next and you are stuck while they are thinking. In the next couple of days we will see something move and then you will get your VIN after that.

The famous tracking sheets here don't quite concur, and they've been pretty darn accurate so far.

 

[Moderatefan]

they have invited all the USA and Canada April 1st 2016 reservation holders.

Is that so? I doubt. I think there were like 250K reservations from 3/31. And until very recently they were only inviting line standers, not so much online reservations. I think there's probably still half of 3/31 reservations left uninvited.

 

[kengchang]

No way they have invited all of 3/31 and 4/1. I got invited last wave RSVP pre-reveal online.

 

[FloridaJohn]

So far they have invited all the USA and Canada April 1st 2016 reservation holders.

Not true. I am a April 1st 2016 reservation holder and have not been invited yet.

The invite spreadsheet shows only about 16% of those with April 1 reservations having received an invite so far (and I'll bet those are east coast people who reserved at the end of the reveal which was after midnight here). Only about 90% of the March 31 reservations have received an invite so far. And that is only the people who are self-reporting. The actual percentages could be much lower.

Also, Tesla has at best delivered 20,000 Model 3s so far. It is highly doubtful that represents most of the 3/31 and 4/1 reservations that have not been canceled or deferred.

 

[drawfour]

Not true. I am a April 1st 2016 reservation holder and have not been invited yet.

Same. I'm Apr 1 online, afternoon (maybe 2pm) PST. I refresh multiple times a day. Still no invite.

 

[Moderatefan]

Tesla has at best delivered 20,000 Model 3s so far. It is highly doubtful that represents most of the 3/31 and 4/1

A big chunk of these are owners, likely with the majority who reserved much later.

 

[DanL3]

Not true. I am a April 1st 2016 reservation holder and have not been invited yet.

The invite spreadsheet shows only about 16% of those with April 1 reservations having received an invite so far (and I'll bet those are east coast people who reserved at the end of the reveal which was after midnight here). Only about 90% of the March 31 reservations have received an invite so far. And that is only the people who are self-reporting. The actual percentages could be much lower.

Also, Tesla has at best delivered 20,000 Model 3s so far. It is highly doubtful that represents most of the 3/31 and 4/1 reservations that have not been canceled or deferred.

Yes, you are correct. I made an Error.

All,or most, 3/31/16 reservations have been invited. Both for online and instore. The 4/1/16 reservations are next.

If they Invite as many people as they did on 4/18/18 in the next batch. Then that batch of invites will include all of the 4/1/16 reservation holders in that group.

If they do a second, equal sized, set of invites. Then all online reservations through the first half of April 2016 will get invites.

 

[DanL3]

It looks like we are in the mid Q2 doldrums. No Invites, No VINs, Hard to get hold of an ISA. No word on if the factory restarted?

So is Tesla working on holding down deliveries for the Tax credit?? I do not know.

Still in the mid Q2 doldrums. The only move we have seen since this previous post is that all dates for Canada deleveries have gotten invitations.

Now, I do think we are surely seeing a move to postpone the 200,000 USA delivery into July.

So next I would look for status Quo for the next 2 weeks. No big changes. The factory may restart but it will not push for volume production. Then in Mid May I would expect an increase in Invitations, but not deliveries. Around the first of June the production in the factory will start to increase. Trucks and Trains will position cars all across the USA to do big volumes of deliveries on the first week in July.

The factory will ramp up to 5000-6000 production in the last week of June and that volume of production will continue as long as Tesla can keep it going.

The End of Q2 Spin will be about Factory production rates. The stock holder reports will not show good $ amounts for Q2. But with all the deliveries in Early July, Q3 will show a profit. And that will satisfy the stock holders.

 

[kengchang]

Tesla will be fine in the Q2 report showing large amount of Model 3 production and in transit to customer. Tesla will also state the reason to slow down delivery is to postpone phase out credit to Q3

 

[C141medic]

Yes, All 3/31 people, as well as 4/1 people got invitations to configure.

Please call Tesla then and let them know they forgot me and a bunch of others. To my knowledge there are others that ordered on 4/1 who have not received an invitation as of yet.

 

[DanL3]

Hello C141medic,
As I stated in a followup post, I made an error. I do not see a way to correct it with an edit.

Yes, you are correct. I made an Error.

All,or most, 3/31/16 reservations have been invited. Both for online and instore. The 4/1/16 reservations are next.

If they Invite as many people as they did on 4/18/18 in the next batch. Then that batch of invites will include all of the 4/1/16 reservation holders in that group.

If they do a second, equal sized, set of invites. Then all online reservations through the first half of April 2016 will get invites.

Anyway it looks now like 4/1 is about 28% invited.

 

[DanL3]

Bloomberg put out a chart showing little production in May.... This is inline with holding USA dileveries till July.