Tesla Analyst Says Cybertruck Electric Pickup Truck Orders Exceed 650K

[Saghost]

Every snot-nosed high school kid with an allowance put an "order" for a Cybrtrk in at $100. How many of these "orders" will actually convert into a production order is the question -- I think a quarter of them is optimistic, and maybe a tenth if a real truck comes along that is more or less concurrent.

Bottom line, I think we'll see maybe 50-100k production orders and that this one will fall on its face if Hummer or Ford happens.

At that point, the question becomes how far the price can come down, if there's any demand elasticity by the real truck crowd at all to a stainless steel Honda Ridgeline or Chevy Avalanche (or Hummer pickup, for that matter...my understanding is it's a revival of the brand, but if it isn't, GM will also fail)....neither of which were accepted by the truck market as *trucks*.

The thing is... Tesla with their mass battery production and radical design can turn a profit on the Cybertruck at probably half the selling price those others need to be profitable.

Remember, Tesla priced the Cybertruck cheaper than the Y, despite being half again the size and weight and battery capacity. It has to be cheaper to build, as we’ve been discussing upthread.

Would you really pay twice as much to get your Ford or Hummer option?

I think Cybertruck value for money and sheer functionality is going to steal a bunch of market share despite the odd design appearance.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Every snot-nosed high school kid with an allowance put an "order" for a Cybrtrk in at $100. How many of these "orders" will actually convert into a production order is the question -- I think a quarter of them is optimistic, and maybe a tenth if a real truck comes along that is more or less concurrent.

Bottom line, I think we'll see maybe 50-100k production orders and that this one will fall on its face if Hummer or Ford happens.

At that point, the question becomes how far the price can come down, if there's any demand elasticity by the real truck crowd at all to a stainless steel Honda Ridgeline or Chevy Avalanche (or Hummer pickup, for that matter...my understanding is it's a revival of the brand, but if it isn't, GM will also fail)....neither of which were accepted by the truck market as *trucks*.

What you fail to take into consideration is the fact that the Cybertruck will bring people to the truck market that otherwise would never consider a truck. Me for one. This vehicle, in my opiniin, will transcend the traditional truck community. For every tried and true F150 or Silverado loyalist that will be repulsed by this truck, there will be three or four young millennials that will see this as their ultimate driving machine.

Dan

 

[ThomasD]

I think Tesla will drop the low mileage versions.

 

[S3XY]

Every snot-nosed high school kid with an allowance put an "order" for a Cybrtrk in at $100. How many of these "orders" will actually convert into a production order is the question -- I think a quarter of them is optimistic, and maybe a tenth if a real truck comes along that is more or less concurrent.

Bottom line, I think we'll see maybe 50-100k production orders and that this one will fall on its face if Hummer or Ford happens.

At that point, the question becomes how far the price can come down, if there's any demand elasticity by the real truck crowd at all to a stainless steel Honda Ridgeline or Chevy Avalanche (or Hummer pickup, for that matter...my understanding is it's a revival of the brand, but if it isn't, GM will also fail)....neither of which were accepted by the truck market as *trucks*.

Troll Alert

A.N. Gineer, Today at 2:42 PM
Such is life when the billionaire-owner of the company's compensation is focused on "get them out the door" vs having creating a culture where QC, manufacturability, and repairability czars have veto power.

Until that big baby lets go of the reigns, he'll never transition to being a real car company and the bigger players will have him for lunch, despite his slight lead of one production plant. Mustang-E and Bolt eSUV will kill Y if Elon doesn't get his $hit together quickly.

Autopilot is useless to most of us (Tesla's major calling card, apart from Supercharging) and lanekeeping/smart-cruise is all that's really needed. Anyone can pick up the Open Source for those functions on Github right now. Heck, the one in a Prius I rented a couple of years ago was perfectly acceptable (the one in the Bolt EV sucks as it is right now).


A.N. Gineer, Jun 10, 2020 a) no freaking way. Most ruralites don't have bags of money to throw around. Sliding laterally in monthly cost of $100 while upping speed, in exchange for sucky latency, *might* play. $300, definitely not.

b) those who have cable access (vs merely service) should be prohibited by FCC from accessing sat Internet services as part of the spectrum license. Even if you can flash your Lifetime Membership to the Elon Musk Fanboy Club, you have access and loading up a satellite network unnecessarily would be a total dick move.


A.N. Gineer, Today at 2:59 PM New Would be pretty simple for the software developers to sense the max burst speed of the WiFi connection and throttle back to a tenth the bitrate for all updates other than those scheduled, but they are too busy porting fart cushion algorithms to care less about the problem.

 

[dazedNconfuzed]

My Ford Explorer just burned up. Having bought it new and pushed it near 250,000 miles (practical limit for ICE vehicles), interesting to compare total cost to a loaded Cybertruck.

They’re about the same cost, TCO, over 1/4 mil miles.
Explorer: ~$95,000 ($35k purchase, $15k repairs, $42k (!) gas)
Cybertruck: ~$90,000 ($77k purchase, $8,750 electricity)
(Gas & Wh prices vary.)
Except that at a quarter million miles, I’ll have to restart the $ counter on the gas SUV ... while the CT will only cost $/Wh and minimal maintenance for the equivalent usage of 3 more Explorers.

Front loaded pricing, long run cheap.

 

[gavine]

My Ford Explorer just burned up. Having bought it new and pushed it near 250,000 miles (practical limit for ICE vehicles), interesting to compare total cost to a loaded Cybertruck.

They’re about the same cost, TCO, over 1/4 mil miles.
Explorer: ~$95,000 ($35k purchase, $15k repairs, $42k (!) gas)
Cybertruck: ~$90,000 ($77k purchase, $8,750 electricity)
(Gas & Wh prices vary.)
Except that at a quarter million miles, I’ll have to restart the $ counter on the gas SUV ... while the CT will only cost $/Wh and minimal maintenance for the equivalent usage of 3 more Explorers.

Front loaded pricing, long run cheap.

$77K. I guess you're going for the tri-motor. That vehicle is leaps and bounds above the $35K Explorer, especially in performance. No comparison really. You should compare it to the entry-level Cybertruck.

 

[dazedNconfuzed]

You should compare it to the entry-level Cybertruck.

Ok.
Same base price (CT $5k higher but 12 years later).
Remaining numbers equal. Explorer is >$10k higher in repairs, >$35k higher in power, and will utterly die around 250,000 miles - necessitating repeat of purchase & repair costs, while CT is good for another 3x that.
The savings on gas alone will pay for a Tri CT.

 

[Ralbright]

These comparisons are laughable. You think the cyber truck will Last you 250,000 miles without any cost of maintenance / repairs?

 

[dazedNconfuzed]

There’s a difference between a few repairs vs replacing a vehicle piece by piece.

Give me some realistic repair costs. Insults don’t help.