I've noticed scrutinizers of Tesla's autonomy software have two theories about how Tesla's development process will unfold in 2020.
Theory 1: What You See Is What You Get (WYSIWYG)
This is the theory that the latest Autopilot/Full Self-Driving Capability update is already pretty close to what Tesla has in development. There is only a thin line between the software in production and the cutting edge. Future software updates will just bring slow, gradual, incremental updates on top of that.
Theory 2: Sudden Improvement
This is the theory that the dev software is far ahead of the production software. On this theory, Andrej Karpathy's team has developed new neural networks that are up to 10x larger than what's in customers' cars today and that perhaps have a new network architecture as well. New training datasets or techniques may be usable or more exploitable with the new nets. The result will be a sudden improvement when these new nets are deployed.
What do y'all think?
Theory 1: What You See Is What You Get (WYSIWYG)
This is the theory that the latest Autopilot/Full Self-Driving Capability update is already pretty close to what Tesla has in development. There is only a thin line between the software in production and the cutting edge. Future software updates will just bring slow, gradual, incremental updates on top of that.
Theory 2: Sudden Improvement
This is the theory that the dev software is far ahead of the production software. On this theory, Andrej Karpathy's team has developed new neural networks that are up to 10x larger than what's in customers' cars today and that perhaps have a new network architecture as well. New training datasets or techniques may be usable or more exploitable with the new nets. The result will be a sudden improvement when these new nets are deployed.
What do y'all think?
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