Tesla autopilot HW3

[mongo]

So at some point we will have a situation where FSD will work far better than humans, but very occasionally go totally haywire and do something absurd like drive off a cliff.

You should have bought a squirrel.

 

[Cirrus MS100D]

So an update. I took my car in. The service writer first tried to tell me that my car was NOT eligible for an AP3 upgrade because it was AP2, and not AP2.5, to which I asked them exactly why did I pay for the FSD package upgrade? He kept standing his ground, and after going back and forth with him and telling him that he is flat wrong, he finally went to the service manager who also acted bewildered about it. Lead tech confirmed that he *thought* the upgrade would cover AP2 vehicles, but that they're not doing it yet. He said to try back some time next year. Service writer basically had a "see I told you so" attitude and tried to tell me that whatever I've read on the Internet is wrong about upgrading AP2. Between this experience, plus the fact that their yellow screen fix tool was "broken" and to schedule another visit in a month or two, I am pretty upset with Tesla. Their service department used to be straight up first class, and now it's worse than the Ford service dept that I take my wife's car to.

I’m now getting the impression that they may instead opt to try and cajole AP2 owners who prepaid for FSD to upgrade the entire car with a mildly sweeter trade-in or discount, as it’s probably not worth their time and effort to retrofit AP3 hardware on AP2.

I’m not sure I’d be happy with that arrangement, but I also wouldn’t be shocked.

<— AP2, MCU1, prepaid FSD in 7/2017

 

[S100D]

I’m now getting the impression that they may instead opt to try and cajole AP2 owners who prepaid for FSD to upgrade the entire car with a mildly sweeter trade-in or discount, as it’s probably not worth their time and effort to retrofit AP3 hardware on AP2.

I’m not sure I’d be happy with that arrangement, but I also wouldn’t be shocked.

<— AP2, MCU1, prepaid FSD in 7/2017

Sounds like a class action law suit to me if they do this. I spent $46,000 to trade in my S85D for my AP2/MCU1 S90D with FSD.

 

[electracity]

Sounds like a class action law suit to me if they do this. I spent $46,000 to trade in my S85D for my AP2/MCU1 S90D with FSD.

If Tesla never upgrades AP2 cars they may only be liable to refund the upgrade price paid to original owners who still posses the car. AP2 would still feel somewhat cheated but the rest of us with newer computers won't care much. So IMO not a lot of risk for Tesla here.

Tesla is clearly managing the risk of FSD on HW3 by defining the FSD "feature set" as the liability goalpost. That is why they will recognize the revenue from the FSD upgrade when they declare "feature set complete".

 

[Kmartyn]

Apparently in the 2019.36.1 build, the traffic cone visualization only shows up on HW3 cars, may be the first software feature that diverges on the new platform.

I can confirm this. My TM3 with HW2.5 and 36.1, did not get cone visualization. This likely means we will not get feature complete FSD either, without the hardware upgrade, that Tesla wants to delay until next year.

 

[NOLA_Mike]

Tesla is clearly managing the risk of FSD on HW3 by defining the FSD "feature set" as the liability goalpost. That is why they will recognize the revenue from the FSD upgrade when they declare "feature set complete".

I would think they will need to defer some of that revenue to cover the costs of swapping out the hardware. Once they have swapped out everyone who pre-purchased FSD on HW2 and HW2.5 to HW3 and declared "feature set complete" they can claim all of the remaining deferred revenue and be in compliance with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles.

I personally think they are walking a tightrope here. When I purchased FSD on my 2016 Model S I was naively under the impression I was purchasing a car that would soon have the ability to Fully Self Drive itself. You know, the car could be located in Los Angeles and I could be in New York City and I could summon it and it would drive itself across the country without human interaction and successfully make it to where I was in NY. You know, like Elon said it would.

Mike

 

[electracity]

I personally think they are walking a tightrope here.

I agree, but with Tesla being increasingly sure that if they "fall" it will be into a net.

Tesla real risk IMO is not failing to get regulatory approval for FSD on HW3. The risk IMO is another EV maker selling FSD in a mass market car. That seems extremely unlikely to me within the lifespan of HW3.

Most likely HW3 cars continue to become increasingly helpful to the driver, and Tesla moves on to HW4 and new promises. It's a proven strategy to success which can continue as long as they provide sufficient value to those people who buy the story. That value would seem to need to include refunds to those whose HW2/2.5 cars can't be upgraded.

 

[mongo]

I can confirm this. My TM3 with HW2.5 and 36.1, did not get cone visualization. This likely means we will not get feature complete FSD either, without the hardware upgrade, that Tesla wants to delay until next year.

Right, feature complete FSD will only be on AP computer revisions 3+.

 

[scottf200]

Re: My TM3 with HW2.5 and 36.1, did not get cone visualization.

Right, feature complete FSD will only be on AP computer revisions 3+.

Is the consensus, that unless you are on HW3 the that car not only will not visually show the cones but would also not react to the cones to go along with the 2019.36.1 software changes (presumably improved over whatever cone avoidance/navigation logic they had)?

 

[mongo]

Is the consensus, that unless you are on HW3 the that car not only will not visually show the cones but would also not react to the cones to go along with the 2019.36.1 software changes (presumably improved over whatever
cone avoidance/navigation logic they had)?

Speaking without any real data: a simpler NN could identify cones as a type of non driveable space (detection) but not be able to identify them as cones (classification).

 

[PhaseWhite]

We believe that the only difference between AP2.5 and AP3 is the computer, whereas we know that the AP2.5 update changed all of the cameras and the radar.

So upgrading an AP2.5 car to AP3 is probably just a matter of replacing the computer, but an AP2 upgrade is likely more involved (it's not clear to me whether they'll have to replace the cameras and radars in AP2 cars, or just adjust the networks to deal with differences in output.)

That doesn't in any way relieve Tesla of their obligation to upgrade you, but it may explain why they can't yet; the service people certainly didn't help the situation with their poor explanation.

There’s already been AP2 upgrades to AP3, and It’s just an APU computer upgrade.

 

[BigD0g]

There’s already been AP2 upgrades to AP3, and It’s just an APU computer upgrade.

No, 2 and 2.5 are not equal. We really need to be specific.

 

[electronblue]

So it happened just like I said it would: Tesla would release HW3 features before starting (let alone completing) volume HW3 retrofits.

All this talk about ”but it is not needed yet” was a false hope, as expected.

Watch and learn @diplomat33.

 

[diplomat33]

So it happened just like I said it would: Tesla would release HW3 features before starting (let alone completing) volume HW3 retrofits.

All this talk about ”but it is not needed yet” was a false hope, as expected.

Watch and learn @diplomat33.

What HW3 features? What are you talking about?

 

[electronblue]

What HW3 features? What are you talking about?

Cone detection is HW3 only.

Luckily Tesla will do those pesky HW3 retrofits in Q4/2019 like so many said all year long... right?

 

[diplomat33]

Cone detection is HW3 only.

Are you sure about that?

Luckily Tesla will do those pesky HW3 retrofits in Q4/2019 like so many said all year long... right?

I am sure Tesla will do the retrofits when they do the retrofits.

 

[jebinc]

Cone detection is HW3 only.

Luckily Tesla will do those pesky HW3 retrofits in Q4/2019 like so many said all year long... right?

It looks like the 36.1 roll out stopped, per Teslafi. Perhaps Tesla put it on hold until all the HW3 retrofits are completed?

 

[mongo]

So it happened just like I said it would: Tesla would release HW3 features before starting (let alone completing) volume HW3 retrofits.

All this talk about ”but it is not needed yet” was a false hope, as expected.

Watch and learn @diplomat33.

Um, Elon said that in March. (If you concider cones vs non drivable space meaningful)
Twitter

Retrofits will start when our software is able to take meaningful advantage of the Tesla FSD computer, which is an order of magnitude more capable. For now, it’s slightly disadvantageous to have Tesla FSD computer, as our software is more refined for HW2.

 

[electronblue]

All I’m saying is that — as expected by anyone who really objectively has followed Tesla for long, but denied by so many here and elsewhere — the concerns that early FSD owners with AP2/2.5 would fall behind were legitimate, as were the concerns that the HW3 retrofit project would be trying and delayed for Tesla, further adding to this legitimate concern.

How much, that is the only remaining question. The rest is already historical fact and yes, we were right.

 

[diplomat33]

Um, Elon said that in March. (If you concider cones vs non drivable space meaningful)
Twitter

FYI. That is @electronblue who said that quote you are responding to, not me.