Tesla autopilot HW3

[Bladerskb]

Like I said, his estimation transfer function clips at 2 years.

What goal are you attributing the 2020 date to?
Elon said in the podcast (10:45) it will be feature complete this year. 2020 is the guess at when you can sleep all the way to your destination.

Huh? He literally changed his vow in under 30 days. He said they would be 99.9999..% and have safe FSD this year to all his investors. Then a month later he says it will happen end of 2020. Seriously?

2/19: end of 2020
1/19: end of 2019
11/18: end of 2019
3/17: mid-2019
6/16: before mid-2018
1/16: early 2018
12/15: end of 2017

You actually gonna defend that? Elon could come out tomorrow and say he's building a time machine, its easy and he will have it done in 2 years and you will find a way to defend him. I'm done here.

 

[mongo]

He said they would be 99.9999..%

Nope, at least based on your quote:

We need to be at 99.9999..%

and have safe FSD this year to all his investors.

But your quote was:

When do we think it is safe for FSD, probably towards the end of this year

Could be level 3, with level 4 in parking lots.

Then a month later he says it will happen end of 2020.

2020 is the sleep all the way to your destination level of FSD, I'd call that 4 or 5.

You actually gonna defend that? Elon could come out tomorrow and say he's building a time machine, its easy and he will have it done in 2 years and you will find a way to defend him. I'm done here.

Nah, I'll just know that 2 years means: not for a while. Your timeline is showing a nice convergence on late 2019 though...

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

Don't worry h8ter boy, we'll find out in a year or so if there is some substance to the claims. You can log in then to post your findings (no need to log in before that).

I can't really tell where Blader sits on the love versus hate when it comes to Elon Musk.

He knows more about what Elon Musk says than some of Elon's biggest fans on here.

In fact Blader is probably the single best source of information on what Elon said, and when he said it. I would bet $100 that Blader could win an Elon Musk Trivia game (when it involves Tesla) against his fellow TMC'ers.

That's a lot of dedication.

For me I ignore anything Elon says unless it's within 1-3 months, and even then everything is double from what Elon says.

 

[Randy7fx]

Anyone else glad to see Blader is done here???

 

[banned-66611]

I'll eat my hat if they have FSD working by the end of the year.

 

[mongo]

I'll eat my hat if they have FSD working by the end of the year.

For certain values of:
Eat (whole or ground?)
My (that you won now or purchase for the event?)
Hat (anything worn on head, mass/ size minimums?)
Working (What failure rate?, on how many vehicles, what region?)
FSD (minimum feature set, see also 'working')

(end and year are well defined )

I'll buy a hat if they do!

 

[boonedocks]

Anyone else glad to see Blader is done here???

I seriously doubt he's actually "done here" LOL

 

[J1mbo]

Anyone else think that Elon meant to say that EAP will be feature complete by end 2019?

Easy to get your TLAs AFU sometimes

 

[mongo]

Anyone else think that Elon meant to say that EAP will be feature complete by end 2019?

Easy to get your TLA's AFU sometimes

Nope, I think he meant all features of FSD in a Level 2-3 mode with ESP nags for 2019. Level 4-5 for 2020 (sleeping to your destination).

 

[kengchang]

Anyone else glad to see Blader is done here???

We were all waiting for the glorious write-up he was going to do on how crappy Tesla's AutoPilot is compare to MobileEye. It never came

 

[banned-66611]

Nope, I think he meant all features of FSD in a Level 2-3 mode with ESP nags for 2019. Level 4-5 for 2020 (sleeping to your destination).

That's not really anything like FSD though. The difference between level 2/3 and level 5 is huge, because it's always been the case that the rare exceptions to the norm are the ones that are extremely difficult to handle.

 

[mongo]

That's not really anything like FSD though. The difference between level 2/3 and level 5 is huge, because it's always been the case that the rare exceptions to the norm are the ones that are extremely difficult to handle.

I agree it's the march of 9s for reliability. I say 2-3 due to the nag system that will be in place, due to the need to collect millions of miles of validation data. It could be the 2019 FSD is level 4 capable, but that can only be shown by volumes of data. In the mean time, we keep hands on wheel just in case.

Like a teen driver, I don't know that you'll screw up, but I also don't know that you wont.
I'm excited to see how it goes!

 

[conman]

Anyone else glad to see Blader is done here???

Is he really? I've had him on ignore for a year so it's a relief. Otherwise I keep seeing people answering to nobody. Perhaps his short time is up and he isn't trying to short again? Whatever, so long as actual owners can keep on discussing, I'm all for it.

I'll eat my hat if they have FSD working by the end of the year.

As others have said, I'm pretty sure by feature complete he means that some aspect of FSD will have rolled out by the end of the year somewhere probably in early access; NOT that the full suite of FSD will be out. My guess is at best USA might get traffic lights. The rest of the world would be lucky to get NoA by then at this rate...

 

[chiller]

(end and year are well defined )

In what timezone?

 

[Saghost]

(end and year are well defined )

Yup. Lots of different definitions for year, all with different ends. Fiscal year, calendar year, chinese year, hebrew year, islamic year, four different Japanese years...

 

[mongo]

OK ok ok, I took too much for granted
2019 (which was the year Elon referenced) is officially ended when no timezones still use it ...

 

[Soda Popinski]

Yup. Lots of different definitions for year, all with different ends. Fiscal year, calendar year, chinese year, hebrew year, islamic year, four different Japanese years...

Don't forget a year on Mars is 687 Earth days.

 

[Kant.Ing]

Vaporware is well defined in case FSD is not.

 

[MasterchiefTS]

Tesla Semi will have AutoPilot 3, right? Ok, now I have one question: AP 2.5 is at the limit of the power in this moment? Is there not margin of improvement? NVIDIA Drive PX2 is at the limit?

 

[verygreen]

Tesla Semi will have AutoPilot 3, right? Ok, now I have one question: AP 2.5 is at the limit of the power in this moment? Is there not margin of improvement? NVIDIA Drive PX2 is at the limit?

no, it's not.