Tesla autopilot HW3

[diplomat33]

I do not believe AP2/2.5 will be able to keep up with FSD advancements with the current hardware. It is a faster route to obsolescense than with an HW3 upgrade would be. Even though we might get ”some FSD”, the bad news would follow when HW3 cars get more and more.

Well yeah but that's a given. Hardware never keeps up with software. We see that with Apple computers, Windows computers and smart phones. And I too, I want the AP3 chip so that I can be at the beginning of the curve and get more features.

Historically Tesla always favours the latest and greatest they sell, everything else gets scraps if even that in the upgrades department...

Well yeah, that's a given too. It's a common marketing strategy in almost all tech companies, not just Tesla. Look at Apple or Samsung. Every year or two, they hold their big annual conferences where they push their new latest and greatest, they don't promote features coming to obsolete hardware.

 

[electronblue]

Well yeah but that's a given. Hardware never keeps up with software. We see that with Apple computers, Windows computers and smart phones. And I too, I want the AP3 chip so that I can be at the beginning of the curve and get more features.

Well yeah, that's a given too. It's a common marketing strategy in almost all tech companies, not just Tesla. Look at Apple or Samsung. Every year or two, they hold their big annual conferences where they push their new latest and greatest, they don't promote features coming to obsolete hardware.

The difference here of course is that Tesla sold the boldest promises of future software updates for AP2 in 2016 and specifically promised to upgrade the computer if needed to reach them...

Very different from a new ”model year” simply being better than the old...

The fear here being many of us don’t believe AP2/2.5 computers are enough to fulfill those promises of 2016-2017.

 

[diplomat33]

The difference here of course is that Tesla sold the boldest promises of future software updates for AP2 in 2016 and specifically promised to upgrade the computer if needed to reach them...

Very different from a new ”model year” simply being better than the old...

The fear here being many of us don’t believe AP2/2.5 computers are enough to fulfill those promises of 2016-2017.

And if AP2/2.5 is not good enough for FSD like say the "automatic city driving" feature, we will get the AP3 upgrade.

 

[electronblue]

And if AP2/2.5 is not good enough for FSD like say the "automatic city driving" feature, we will get the AP3 upgrade.

But that’s the thing. What if Tesla redefines the sufficient level of ”automatic city driving” to something rather poor and just leaves it at that? (We were sold coast to coast Summon, sleep in your car, Level 5 capable hardware, Tesla Network ride-sharing and all that...)

HW3 then moves on to bigger and better things without us...

 

[DiamondHands]

Man I would LOVE to know what the 2016 self-driving demo video Tesla was running in terms of software/hardware.

After having driven > 40K miles on my beloved HW2 X, which can't yet recognize stop signs or consistently keep in the lane on autopilot or keep from phantom breaking at highway speeds, I feel that there's no way that the demo Tesla was running what Tesla sold me. No way. And I don't think the disclosure of certain features not being enabled until regulatory approval gets Tesla off the hook. I'm not a tech guy, so please do pardon my ignorance when I ask- how is it that the demo video Tesla did what it did, without human intervention, in 2016, and yet my X, supposedly with the same hardware, and updated software, can't get basic AP (lane keeping) right in a consistent fashion?

I have no idea what it takes to keep a car startup alive. I imagine Elon said what needed to be said (evidently much too prematurely) to sell X's and S's in order to realize Tesla's ultimate mission. I still support Tesla, and I'll likely put money down for the Model Y, but I also wish Elon and Tesla would let us in on what really happened, and what's going to happen.

 

[lunitiks]

how is it that the demo video Tesla did what it did, without human intervention, in 2016, and yet my X, supposedly with the same hardware, and updated software, can't get basic AP (lane keeping) right in a consistent fashion

Discussed in here

 

[diplomat33]

But that’s the thing. What if Tesla redefines the sufficient level of ”automatic city driving” to something rather poor and just leaves it at that? (We were sold coast to coast Summon, sleep in your car, Level 5 capable hardware, Tesla Network ride-sharing and all that...)

HW3 then moves on to bigger and better things without us...

As you said, it's a "what if?" Right now, it's a hypothetical. We don't know for sure. It is also possible that Tesla will upgrade us to AP3. Keep in mind that Tesla actually has an incentive to upgrade us beyond just the fact that they promised. Tesla' ultimate goal is FSD so they will want as many cars as possible to be able to do it. It would not be advantageous for Tesla to have AP2 cars driving around with a subpar version of FSD.

 

[DiamondHands]

Discussed in here

That there's an interesting thread, thanks for sharing.

Coincidentally, it went dark almost exactly a year ago.

 

[Vitold]

Man I would LOVE to know what the 2016 self-driving demo video Tesla was running in terms of software/hardware.

After having driven > 40K miles on my beloved HW2 X, which can't yet recognize stop signs or consistently keep in the lane on autopilot or keep from phantom breaking at highway speeds, I feel that there's no way that the demo Tesla was running what Tesla sold me. No way. And I don't think the disclosure of certain features not being enabled until regulatory approval gets Tesla off the hook. I'm not a tech guy, so please do pardon my ignorance when I ask- how is it that the demo video Tesla did what it did, without human intervention, in 2016, and yet my X, supposedly with the same hardware, and updated software, can't get basic AP (lane keeping) right in a consistent fashion?

I have no idea what it takes to keep a car startup alive. I imagine Elon said what needed to be said (evidently much too prematurely) to sell X's and S's in order to realize Tesla's ultimate mission. I still support Tesla, and I'll likely put money down for the Model Y, but I also wish Elon and Tesla would let us in on what really happened, and what's going to happen.

Demo where Tesla stops in the middle of the road because people are walking alongside of the road sold you on AP whil, at the same time, you complain about phantom braking?

 

[DiamondHands]

Demo where Tesla stops in the middle of the road because people are walking alongside of the road sold you on AP whil, at the same time, you complain about phantom braking?

"Demo where Tesla stops in the middle of the road because people are walking alongside of the road sold you on AP" - No

"you complain about phantom braking" - Not a complaint, rather an observation. This is a recurring, demonstrable issue. And people don't ordinarily walk along the side of the highway. At least in the US.

What's your point anyway?

 

[boonedocks]

I think you are seeing what you want to see. I don't see "there will be no retrofits" in what I posted. I just see "we are currently testing our FSD software on our current hardware, AP2/2.5". You are extrapolating from that what you think Tesla will do in the future.

I think it is actually a win win for us. If the FSD package of features works on AP2/2.5 then we all get the FSD features without an upgrade and Tesla kept its promise to give us the FSD features on our current hardware. And if AP3 is required, we get the hardware upgrade.

Maybe a win for you and your model 3 but not at all a win or even legal for what was sold to early S & X adopters of HW2.0 cars.

As I have said before I know you haven’t been through anything like this before with Tesla but those of us that have once and even some of us twice now are not going to just sit idly by and lap up the Tesla sauce this time. Too many commitments form Tesla, not just Elon’s tweets either, for what we were sold and paid for!! You...Tesla - can’t just move the goal post around to suit your current mood.

 

[diplomat33]

Maybe a win for you and your model 3 but not at all a win or even legal for what was sold to early S & X adopters of HW2.0 cars.

As I have said before I know you haven’t been through anything like this before with Tesla but those of us that have once and even some of us twice now are not going to just sit idly by and lap up the Tesla sauce this time. Too many commitments form Tesla, not just Elon’s tweets either, for what we were sold and paid for!! You...Tesla - can’t just move the goal post around to suit your current mood.

Well, I am 100% with you and other Model S owners to get the AP3 upgrade for "FSD". I want Tesla to do the right thing for you all.

 

[emmz0r]

I just can't see any reason why HW2 peeps shouldn't be upgraded. If they don't and it gets out, they will scare everyone from committing to future features.

 

[OPRCE]

Question: what would swapped HW2.x modules be good for?

I reckon the HW2.5 units will be recycled straight back into new production for clients selecting neither AP nor FSD.

 

[Matias]

Much more concerning is the fact that EAP, for those who purchased it before it was eliminated, will never get what they were promised, even if what they were promised eventually is released on HW3. Tesla will simply plug their ears and pretend they never promised that things like on-ramp to off-ramp without intervention were ever promised as part of EAP. They will do this because the sheer number of cars delivered with EAP and HW2/2.5 would make it an extremely expensive proposition to upgrade them.

There is substantial precedent for this -- all the AP1 promises that were made and never kept. In principle Tesla could retrofit AP2+HW3 onto all those cars to give them what they were promised, but nobody seriously believes that will happen. The same will be true of EAP, and possibly even pre-HW3 FSD.

Isn’t that like illegal?

 

[electronblue]

As you said, it's a "what if?" Right now, it's a hypothetical. We don't know for sure. It is also possible that Tesla will upgrade us to AP3. Keep in mind that Tesla actually has an incentive to upgrade us beyond just the fact that they promised. Tesla' ultimate goal is FSD so they will want as many cars as possible to be able to do it. It would not be advantageous for Tesla to have AP2 cars driving around with a subpar version of FSD.

I don’t buy that incentive but I do think the time has come for us to amicably agree to disagree as I think we are going in circles.

Please forgive us older owners for having more a cynical experience and view of Tesla. If we are wrong down the road so be it. But if you do end up disappointed in your FSD experience, kindly remember we told you so.

We all hope Tesla will upgrade AP2.x to HW3. I still expect a disappointment after that (no it is not Level 5 capable) but at least it would mean we could be a meaningful part of this upgrade story for longer — as it has not started yet at all. It would truly suck for AP2.x owners to have gotten nothing for FSD for years and then end up getting only scraps as the new and shiny AP3 rolls on into the future.

 

[electronblue]

I just can't see any reason why HW2 peeps shouldn't be upgraded. If they don't and it gets out, they will scare everyone from committing to future features.

Unfortunately this has not stopped Tesla from not following through on promises before. Many AP1 promises remain undelivered (including the navigation-based exit-taking for 8.1 in December 2016) as does the Model S free lighted vanity mirrors promise for all cars. Of course P85D never got its HP and P90DL never reached its performance numbers but went through several versions for new buyers leaving old buyers in the dust...

They seem to promise enough to keep current sales going but over time those promises may not be kept.

 

[diplomat33]

I don’t buy that incentive but I do think the time has come for us to amicably agree to disagree as I think we are going in circles.

It is still good to discuss these questions with my fellow Tesla owners who bring a different perspective.

Please forgive us older owners for having more a cynical experience and view of Tesla. If we are wrong down the road so be it. But if you do end up disappointed in your FSD experience, kindly remember we told you so.

I don't blame you guys for being cynical.

And I am trying to lower my expectations to reduce my chances of being disappointed.

We all hope Tesla will upgrade AP2.x to HW3. I still expect a disappointment after that (no it is not Level 5 capable) but at least it would mean we could be a meaningful part of this upgrade story for longer — as it has not started yet at all. It would truly suck for AP2.x owners to have gotten nothing for FSD for years and then end up getting only scraps as the new and shiny AP3 rolls on into the future.

I hope AP2 Model S/X owners get AP3 too.

 

[OPRCE]

I think it is actually a win win for us. If the FSD package of features works on AP2/2.5 then we all get the FSD features without an upgrade and Tesla kept its promise to give us the FSD features on our current hardware. And if AP3 is required, we get the hardware upgrade.

It is simply not believable that they only now have started "testing" original FSD on AP2.x hardware.

That is surely what they had been doing for at least 6 months prior to Musk's Twitter-proclamation that the original FSD would require HW3, hence a free retrofit for those who had pre-paid.

Also, if original FSD can be delivered on HW2.x after all, it means these passel of incompetents just wasted huge time and money on developing the superfluous HW3, making themselves out to be fools as well as liars.

Which is a ludicrous proposition.

No, what it looks more like is a test of "neoFSD" [as redefined with the minimal feature-set "coming in 2019"] on HW2.5, so that the old boards can be recycled into new vehicles ordered after 1st March. Thereafter those new customers can be charged full price for the upgrade if wanting HW3.

In any case for those who pre-paid for original FSD prior to 1.Mar.2019 there is no way for Tesla to evade the gratis HW3 retrofit without provoking the mother of all class-action lawsuits.

 

[diplomat33]

It is simply not believable that they only now have started "testing" original FSD on AP2.x hardware.

That is surely what they had been doing for at least 6 months prior to Musk's Twitter-proclamation that the original FSD would require HW3, hence a free retrofit for those who had pre-paid.

Also, if original FSD can be delivered on HW2.x after all, it means these passel of incompetents just wasted huge time and money on developing the superfluous HW3, making themselves out to be fools as well as liars.

Which is a ludicrous proposition.

No, what it looks more like is a test of "neoFSD" [as redefined with the minimal feature-set "coming in 2019"] on HW2.5, so that the old boards can be recycled into new vehicles ordered after 1st March. Thereafter those new customers can be charged full price for the upgrade if wanting HW3.

In any case for those who pre-paid for original FSD prior to 1.Mar.2019 there is no way for Tesla to evade the gratis HW3 retrofit without provoking the mother of all class-action lawsuits.

Hence why I said to take the facebook quote with a grain of salt. I don't think it is believable either that Tesla is just now testing on AP2 and not finished with AP3.

As I see it, Tesla has to give AP2 cars the AP3 upgrade. They have no choice really. So folks can be skeptical and cynical, that's fine. But Tesla has to do it.