Mining bitcoin so Tesla can afford to pay the inevitable class action settlements?
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Tesla autopilot HW3
- Thread starter verygreen
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Mining bitcoin so Tesla can afford to pay the inevitable class action settlements?
Agreed, FSD new does not promise full autonomous driving, only the few features listed in the new text.
It isn't formulated as in the prior text, where they now only make a promise that the first full features part of FSD (stopsign and trafficlight detection) to be likely launched in 2019.
With the SW2,0 development strategy, they can retrain the NN using the same data set, but with different network typologies. This is the optimizing Elon was talking about (frame rate/ image size/ feature set). The big NN runs full rate everything, HW2.x is down-featured/ input stream. Based on the training results, they'll need to disable features if the percentage pass rate is too low.
It think this is re-alignment to set high confidence short term functional goals. Time will tell if that function list grows without the addition of new tier of FSD.
boonedocks
MS LR Blk/Blk 19”
Yes indeed, along with the new car swap to get HW3
I really hope Tesla has a grand plan for us 2.0 FSD-pre-paid at purchase car owners. If that grand plan means we ultimately get a new car then fine. Otherwise if there is no plan I will not sit idly by on this one, like I did with AP1, nor will I be part of any class action lawsuit either. I will get what I agreed to even if I have to fight the very company I truly want to succeed. Elon, his tweets, his phone calls, his public talks, podcasts.... basically untethered has really created a dilemma and a quagmire for Tesla.
I have sent many emails, made many phone calls, publicly tweeted since Elon likes that kind of communication, and all I have had in return is crickets chirping. All I have asked for is a written documented plan for those that, in good faith, purchased a HW2.0 car and pre-paid for FSD when purchased.
Tesla / Elon knows what is happening on the backside.
1: Set a date for those of us with HW2.0 with FSD paid for 2+ years ago to have HW3 installed on our cars. (As stated a multitude of time by Elon and apparently available within weeks according to Elon)
2: Make us part of the Early Access Program for testing and reporting on HW3/FSD as publicly announced by Tesla on their blog March 6, 2019
3: Change your stance on communication with your most loyal and highest cash margin product purchasing customers, early supporters, from a blackhole to a flow of information.
4: If there is indeed no way a HW2.0 car can be fitted with the required hardware to fulfill a written and agreed to contract then swap our cars out with a new car that is.
My gut says you're probably greatly overestimating the cost of the computer. I figure the off-the-shelf three-year-old smartphone-grade CPU, RAM, and flash parts probably cost on the order of $50 per side, for a total of $100. Then, you have their I/O hardware and tensor processing chips. If it all adds up to much more than about $250 total, I'd be surprised, unless you include paying down the R&D cost for the chips.
I probably am, I was trying to illustrate that even with high costs, the FSD option price covers the replacement on previously sold vehicles.
diplomat33
Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
Saw this on facebook. Take it with a grain of salt of course since it is not official. But it looks like Tesla is currently testing FSD with AP2 and AP2.5 to see if it is good enough. Although I would be surprised if Tesla went to all the trouble of AP3 only to go "never mind, we don't need it". But it is possible that if AP2 and AP2.5 are good enough for the FSD features listed on the website that AP2 and AP2.5 owners will still get FSD with no hardware upgrade required but newer cars will get AP3.
UPDATE OF FSD/HW3: just spoke to Tesla and asked if FSD will include HW3. Supervisors answer “ right now we don’t know. They are testing HW2 and 2.5 to see if they can handle FSD. HW3 is not fully developed yet. We do not know what the results of testing will be so we don’t know if 2.5 will be sufficient or if 3 will be needed”.
UPDATE OF FSD/HW3: just spoke to Tesla and asked if FSD will include HW3. Supervisors answer “ right now we don’t know. They are testing HW2 and 2.5 to see if they can handle FSD. HW3 is not fully developed yet. We do not know what the results of testing will be so we don’t know if 2.5 will be sufficient or if 3 will be needed”.
I just hope HW3 gets the auto windshield wipers to work ....that was on my delivery sheet in April '17 with 2.0. Reading speed signs would be nice.
Seriously I see a war of attrition for 2.0 people like me...we are becoming a minority anyhow. Hell we can't even get a path to 2.5 (better cameras and MCU and AP speed/dashcam) EVEN if we wanted to pay for it!
This is why is was "smart" of Tesla to lower the bar for FSD and try to squeeze it within HW2.0.
Seriously I see a war of attrition for 2.0 people like me...we are becoming a minority anyhow. Hell we can't even get a path to 2.5 (better cameras and MCU and AP speed/dashcam) EVEN if we wanted to pay for it!
This is why is was "smart" of Tesla to lower the bar for FSD and try to squeeze it within HW2.0.
You mean the new "watered" down FSD requirements right? There not testing crap in terms of FSD they promised me in 2016, just not happening.
If the almighty Elon had all this amazing FSD cars driving around, you'd think they'd update the sham of an original video no?
I agree, nobody's getting HW3, but that's just because they don't want the retrofit bill. So, they'll water it down until it can be done with the existing hardware. What a crock...
The cheapest thing for Tesla to do it to eventually reimburse early 2.0 FSD buyers $1k or more...or offer a discount on a new car when HW3 is up... which will be when many leases and warranties will be up anyhow.
If I was Tesla I'd offer FSD for free on a new vehicle if a user was trading in a FSD enabled vehicle. I would only require the buyer to get AP.
Most likely that buyer paid around $8K for something where they only really got $3K worth of stuff. EAP still doesn't do what it's supposed to do.
That keeps the person a Tesla customer, and sorts out the whole mess that is HW2 along with how long development of EAP took.
Right now everything is just speculation until we have clarity on HW3.
Here is what I speculate will happen if given enough time to play out.
HW3 will take awhile to get going. New hardware is difficult and they're probably at least 6 months away from production.
FSD won't work well on HW2.5 and Karpathy will threaten to quit if he's stuck trying to force his neural network to work on HW2/HW2.5 with the speed and results he wants.
Tesla will refund HW2.0 people $3K for FSD because it's not cost effective to upgrade.
Tesla will upgrade HW2.5 to HW3 on vehicles where owners have FSD
I’ve been following along. I think I’ve come to the following conclusion:
- Unlikely that HW3 will provide real FSD - something that (almost) everyone could agree on as a definition of it. Yeah I know, none of us really know, but I predict this based on extrapolating from previous broken promises, and the technical discourse here
- Those that purchased FSD won’t be getting it anytime soon, unless it’s a watered down version that Tesla redefines as FSD. They could then argue to get it, but is it really going to be worth it?
- If Tesla does ever produce a useful FSD, then I would consider paying for it (I bought EAP).
ROFL. There's not enough crack in the world for FSD to happen on HW2. If this is actually a serious consideration, then we just need to send whatever pencil pusher thinks this is possible up to Old Santa Cruz Highway with a "full self-driving" setup on HW2.5. Tie that person's hands behind his or her back, and tell him or her that if he or she survives the trip, their customers will be fine with an attempt to implement FSD on HW2.5. I measured parts of that trip in "feet per Take Over Immediately" and it was not a double-digit number. This was, might I add, in perfect weather, at single-digit MPH, behind another car.
HW2.5 isn't even fast enough for basic lane keeping without making passengers uncomfortable. The steering is jerky, it ping-pongs between the sides of lanes, reacts too late when the road turns, gets dangerously close to walls, crosses the center line, etc., all because performance is nowhere near good enough. And that's on highways that you actually might occasionally survive with AP on.
I'm not 100% certain that FSD will be possible with HW3, but I'd feel better about my chances of winning the lottery every year for the rest of my life than seeing FSD with HW2.5. There's just no way in you-know-where. It will take at least an order of magnitude better performance, minimum. And possibly two.
And the only thing funnier than FSD on HW2.5 would be FSD on HW2.
No, that's not even remotely the cheapest thing for them to do. It's a trivial board swap that will cost at most a thousand bucks per car. The cost of defending a lawsuit would be, at minimum, a hundred grand. So if even 1% of their customers sue individually, it's cheaper to install the hardware.
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What a difference a week makes.
The whole of last year the AP mess was somehow sustained by Elon Musk’s continued Twitter promises of HW3 upgrades and the subsequent narrative in the community that it would make everything allright in the end.
Now we are deeper and deeper into a new narrative: there will be no retrofits. This is of course supported by a lot of Tesla history. P85D HP was ”fixed” by a ”software update”... but when that didn’t fix anything, then by P85D Ludicrous, P90DL V1, V2, V3... none of which fixed the issue of reaching announced levels... until P100D finally did reach announced levels, to no comfort of P85D/P90DL owners of old.
So there is little reason to expect AP is any different. Tesla’s ”asprational” announcements will eventually be reached by future hardware revisions but just like some promises made for AP1 only really appear in AP2 some promises made for AP2 will only appear in AP3, AP4... to no comfort of AP2 owners of old (or AP1 owners before them etc).
Why the feel the need to promise the future in a product they sell today I’ll never understand (in any acceptable way anyway).
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diplomat33
Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
I think you are seeing what you want to see. I don't see "there will be no retrofits" in what I posted. I just see "we are currently testing our FSD software on our current hardware, AP2/2.5". You are extrapolating from that what you think Tesla will do in the future.
I think it is actually a win win for us. If the FSD package of features works on AP2/2.5 then we all get the FSD features without an upgrade and Tesla kept its promise to give us the FSD features on our current hardware. And if AP3 is required, we get the hardware upgrade.
caligula666
Member
The new FSD definition legally doesn’t apply to 2.0 owners, you can’t retroactively change terms. This is just arm spinning.
I am definitely ”not wanting” no retrofits, quite the opposite. I still hold out hope for it to happen too. It just seems once again the narrative has changed and in the past that has been a harbinger of bad news.
Why I don’t consider no retrofits a win is I do not believe AP2/2.5 will be able to keep up with FSD advancements with the current hardware. It is a faster route to obsolescense than with an HW3 upgrade would be. Even though we might get ”some FSD”, the bad news would follow when HW3 cars get more and more.
Historically Tesla always favours the latest and greatest they sell, everything else gets scraps if even that in the upgrades department...
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