Tesla autopilot HW3

[iTech]

I think the Y will be telling in regards to what happens with HW3.

 

[tesemmd]

This is what it says current on the Tesla website in the autopilot section: "All new Tesla cars come standard with advanced hardware capable of providing Autopilot features today, and full self-driving capabilities in the future—through software updates designed to improve functionality over time."

My concern is that they are stating the HW2.5 is essentially advanced enough to handle FSD in the future.

 

[iTech]

This is what it says current on the Tesla website in the autopilot section: "All new Tesla cars come standard with advanced hardware capable of providing Autopilot features today, and full self-driving capabilities in the future—through software updates designed to improve functionality over time."

My concern is that they are stating the HW2.5 is essentially advanced enough to handle FSD in the future.

They've always stated that.

 

[diplomat33]

Musk was pretty clear in his tweet:
"Those who order full self-driving get the upgrade at no cost."

Elon Musk on Twitter

We can debate whether Tesla will follow through and keep this commitment but I don't think there is a debate about what he promised.

 

[verygreen]

Musk was pretty clear in his tweet:
"Those who order full self-driving get the upgrade at no cost."

Elon Musk on Twitter

We can debate whether Tesla will follow through and keep this commitment but I don't think there is a debate about what he promised.

Ok, so in August 2018 it was promised that something would probably happen in 4-6 months. Today, 7 months later, nothing have happened yet... But of course people parade just part of that message as the ironclad promise, right?

 

[ChrML]

That's not what confirmed

I think you guys are reading too much into it. Elon speaking at the quarterly webcast is speaking as Tesla. He's also the CEO of Tesla, which implies everything he says he is a statement from Tesla.

Elon honestly wants do delivery on what he says. Unfortunately Elon tends to be optimistic on timeframes, and the Tesla organization does not always work in terms of taking responsibility for acting on Elons intent.

Tesla is also a very typical American company being very hierarchical making things much more complicated and less agile than it needs to be.

 

[diplomat33]

Ok, so in August 2018 it was promised that something would probably happen in 4-6 months. Today, 7 months later, nothing have happened yet... But of course people parade just part of that message as the ironclad promise, right?

You have to look at the big picture, not just one tweet. I've given my 4 reasons why I think Tesla will do the upgrade. if you look at all the pieces of the puzzle, it just makes sense that Tesla will keep that promise. Again, it would be catastrophic for Tesla to just release AP3 on new cars and screw over all AP2 owners with no FSD that they already paid for.

 

[boonedocks]

You have to look at the big picture, not just one tweet. I've given my 4 reasons why I think Tesla will do the upgrade. if you look at all the pieces of the puzzle, it just makes sense that Tesla will keep that promise. Again, it would be catastrophic for Tesla to just release AP3 on new cars and screw over all AP2 owners with no FSD that they already paid for.

Did you forget that Tesla has already done this with AP1 owners, me included, and it wasn't catastrophic for Tesla or Elon. You have to look at the forest and not the trees to see why those of us that have been through the Elon Promises only to be let down are so skeptical. As an owner of two EAP/FSD 2.0 & 2.5 cars I am truly hopeful. As a previous owner of an AP1 car and saw Elon's promises of features get tossed aside for HW2+....well I am a realist.

 

[mongo]

Ah. Yeah, moving FSD over to a new car might be a solution for some, but better than nothing I guess.

I wan't referring to a new car purely for an AP upgrade, I was talking about people who had a lease, followed by another lease. Of a car that got totaled, or those that trad in for a new/ faster/ different model.

 

[mongo]

read that carefully. What Elon is confirming is that YES, this was discussed at the webcast.

Read what Fred is asking. IF there's a retrofit program people would get HW3.

So.. it does not confirm hw3 upgrades for all. It's all rather carefully worded to extract money from gullible people now.

Here is what was stated in the Q3 2018 conference call Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) Q3 2018 Earnings Conference Call Transcript -- The Motley Fool

Great. And that will be roughly a 1000% increase in processing capability compared to the current hardware and so sounds good, a giant of crew despite being a bump, it costs about the same costs volume and car consumption are approximately the same as the current hardware, but it is a tenfold increment in frames per second and improved redundancy as well. But very importantly, very important to emphasize is that, the only thing that needs to change between the cars used today and cars produced in the second quarter of next year is swapping up the autopilot computer. And this is a simple change that takes less than half an hour and service to upgrade the computer. And one will be able to upgrade their computer to full-self driving capability or upgrade their car to full-self driving capability with a simple service visit. So, we expect all cars with the hardware to sensor suite, basically anything made in the last roughly two years will be upgradeable to full-self driving.

 

[diplomat33]

I think the Y will be telling in regards to what happens with HW3.

I am expecting the Model Y to have AP3.

 

[boonedocks]

Here is what was stated in the Q3 2018 conference call Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) Q3 2018 Earnings Conference Call Transcript -- The Motley Fool

You guys are bamboozled citing Tweets and Earnings Calls. Remember AP1?

Maybe most weren't here then and don't know how little Tweets / public statements / Earnings calls actually mean to reality.

Have you ever cited the first words out of earnings call when using them as promises from Tesla / Elon?

"During this call, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements. These comments are based on our predictions and expectations as of today. Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent filings with the SEC. [Operator Instructions]

 

[verygreen]

Here is what was stated in the Q3 2018 conference call Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) Q3 2018 Earnings Conference Call Transcript -- The Motley Fool

So... Not promising upgrades, stating that upgrades are possible if the sensor suite is the same (so excluding hw2.0 cars at that)

 

[mongo]

You guys are bamboozled citing Tweets and Earnings Calls. Remember AP1?

Maybe most weren't here then and don't know how little Tweets / public statements / Earnings calls actually mean to reality.

Have you ever cited the first words out of earnings call when using them as promises from Tesla / Elon?

"During this call, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements. These comments are based on our predictions and expectations as of today. Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent filings with the SEC. [Operator Instructions]

Finanical safe harbor does not cover everything...

So... Not promising upgrades, stating that upgrades are possible if the sensor suite is the same (so excluding hw2.0 cars at that)

Same link two paragraphs later:

Right. So, it's very important to emphasize that people shouldn't (inaudible) if you want to wait until that comes out, but there's no need to wait till it comes out because it's just a very simple plug-and-play change to get the full-self driving. And anyone who is patron for self-driving option, we'll just get it done for free.

 

[diplomat33]

So... Not promising upgrades, stating that upgrades are possible if the sensor suite is the same (so excluding hw2.0 cars at that)

"basically anything made in the last roughly two years will be upgradeable to full-self driving"

2 years back from 2018 would be 2016 so that would include AP2 cars as upgradeable.

 

[Soda Popinski]

You guys are bamboozled citing Tweets and Earnings Calls. Remember AP1?

Maybe most weren't here then and don't know how little Tweets / public statements / Earnings calls actually mean to reality.

Have you ever cited the first words out of earnings call when using them as promises from Tesla / Elon?

"During this call, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements. These comments are based on our predictions and expectations as of today. Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent filings with the SEC. [Operator Instructions]

This isn't speculating whether or not the HW3 will happen

Finanical safe harbor does not cover everything...

Same link two paragraphs later:

Here's the thing, you have proven Elon Musk / Tesla has stated FSD purchasers will get HW3 for free. You won't convince Boonedocks that it'll actually happen, because Boonedocks doesn't trust Musk / Tesla.

We'll see what happens when it happens.

 

[diplomat33]

You guys are bamboozled citing Tweets and Earnings Calls. Remember AP1?

Maybe most weren't here then and don't know how little Tweets / public statements / Earnings calls actually mean to reality.

Have you ever cited the first words out of earnings call when using them as promises from Tesla / Elon?

"During this call, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements. These comments are based on our predictions and expectations as of today. Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent filings with the SEC. [Operator Instructions]

The bottom line is that nobody knows for sure what Tesla will do in the future. This is a debate between people who think Tesla will do X and people who think Tesla will do Z. I happen to think that Tesla will do the upgrade. Let's see.

 

[verygreen]

"basically anything made in the last roughly two years will be upgradeable to full-self driving"

2 years back from 2018 would be 2016 so that would include AP2 cars as upgradeable.

basically is a not precise word. 1.5 years is basically 2 years. The much more precise qualifier is the same sensor suite. and we know hw2.0 sensor suite is not the same as hw3 or hw2.5

 

[mongo]

basically is a not precise word. 1.5 years is basically 2 years. The much more precise qualifier is the same sensor suite. and we know hw2.0 sensor suite is not the same as hw3 or hw2.5

HW 2.5 came out ~August 21 2017. Conference call was October 24 2018, 14 months is nowhere near 2 years.

 

[boonedocks]

Finanical safe harbor does not cover everything...

Same link two paragraphs later:

So if I spend the time to go look up what was said about AP1 in earnings call, not related to financial safe harbors, you'll just find another way to defend that too? Look you can defend all day...but sometimes you have to come out in to the light of day to actually see.