Indiegogo is better as they allow full risk for the buyer.
Maybe after the stores close, Tesla sells cars on Indiegogo?
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Tesla autopilot HW3
- Thread starter verygreen
- Start date
Indiegogo is better as they allow full risk for the buyer.
Maybe after the stores close, Tesla sells cars on Indiegogo?
boonedocks
MS LR Blk/Blk 19”
Just for fun since we are discussing Elon’s tweets as facts and promises...here’s another just posted
Will there be an upgrade path to the newer MCU:
Elon Musk on Twitter
Will there be an upgrade path to the newer MCU:
Elon Musk on Twitter
Bet TSLA
Active Member
Oh, I didn't realize it had that. 2015 was the first blog post I saw about AP.
(I do like the Level 1 TACC on our Ford)
Bet TSLA
Active Member
They started building cars with AP1 hardware in September, 2014. Some time around the middle of the month. The software update that enabled TACC was in October. But yes, autosteer didn't appear until a year later.
That’s not even the first feature. LDW was activated around the time of the D+A announcement so AP1 hardware was definitely active from around Q3/2014 onwards.
Not a prayer. At only 200 fps for eight cameras, that means it isn't even able to process every frame of video coming from the camera with the current self-driving computer vision stack, much less anything approaching FSD. I'd be willing to bet that half the AP instability I've experienced is caused by it dropping frames entirely because it can't keep up with the frame rate.
So here's a radical idea. Tesla could take all the AP2 or AP2.5 computers that they're replacing with AP3, add a custom wiring harness to it, and upgrade the AP1 cars to give them the extra features originally promised on that hardware.
diplomat33
Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
We now have official confirmation in writing from a Tesla rep that FSD purchasers will indeed get the AP3 chip for free:
That does seem to be a confirmation, but on the other hand the wording there says "If [you] have purchased FSD, we will install it and enable it..." What is "it" exactly? FSD? Or the new chip? There is a small space for them to squeeze themselves through there, if they find they need to. Tesla has squeezed through smaller spaces in the past successfully.
diplomat33
Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
Based on context, the "it" has to refer to the AP3 chip. The previous sentence reads, "As for FSD - that will be available when the new chip we are working on is finished. So install "it" and enable "it" would refer to the last thing mentioned in the sentence before, ie the chip. Grammatically, I am not sure it really makes sense for "it" to refer to FSD. Why mention a chip if you then say you will install FSD and enable FSD to use the features. It makes more sense if "it" refers to the chip: "We are working on the chip and if you purchased FSD, we will install the chip and enable the chip so you can use the features."
Problem I have with the current, low-priced "FSD" is that if you purchase it, you subscribe to the new description of it, not the old lvl 5.
But... you still get Full Self Driving! It says it right there on the description! Full! Self! Driving!
This just happens to now be defined as an L2 driver assistance feature. Let me point out the apologist's answer to this and then preemptively refute it: "But it only starts as L2, until they refine it and gain confidence and regulatory approval, and then it will be L5." Well the problem with that is that they are not longer making any promises whatsoever about that. You are not buying an L5-capable system when you order FSD today. You are buying an L2 system with some slight chance that maybe if everything goes really well you might be able to read a book while it drives you to work -- eventually, years down the road, well after other companies have already released their LiDAR-based L4 vehicles, and there's only a chance of this happening, no guarantees. But I bet that in Elon's mind, when he talks about falling asleep in a Tesla -- and I'm talking even in Elon's optimistic, unrealistic mind here -- he is envisioning that happening in a future Tesla model, not current vehicles for current purchasers. For him there is no difference; not so for the people currently funding the company with their hard-earned dollars.
If you believe Tesla can achieve this in a reasonable time frame for existing AP2 vehicles, you are far, far better off investing your $2k in Tesla stock. If they do this the stock will easily double and you will be able to afford the upgrade price at that time.
Also, i'll point you to the Model Y presentation last night to quote Elon: "Just with software upgrades" : Feature complete
That pretty much kills the idea of a HW retrofit this year, and probably forever after all the stupid wording changes on the order / delivery page.
That pretty much kills the idea of a HW retrofit this year, and probably forever after all the stupid wording changes on the order / delivery page.
boonedocks
MS LR Blk/Blk 19”
Where exactly does that leave Tesla, commitment wise, to those of us that agreed to something completely different 2+ years ago. Can Tesla honestly and legally sweep it under the rug?
diplomat33
Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
Actually, I think Musk is still making some promises like that. Here is what Elon said at the Model Y reveal just last night:
"We expect to be feature complete with self-driving sometime later this year and as we prove out the safety with billions of miles uh kilometers, we will, from our standpoint, feel like it is safe enough not to pay attention then get regulatory approval sometime thereafter. The cool thing is feature complete. It will be able to basically do anything by the end of this year, just with a software update which is pretty cool."
He does appear to be saying that they will release a feature complete L2 system that will eventually mature into at least L3 autonomy (no driver attention) after "billions of miles" of testing. Although, it is probably worth mentioning that Musk does not specify how many billions of miles will be required for full validation and even stutters between saying miles and kilometers which makes a huge difference (units matter people! LOL). Are we talking 2 billion miles, 2 billion kilometers or 20 billion miles? Musk is leaving it very open ended.
So I think it is a given that Tesla will release a "feature complete" FSD system at L2 and then let the public basically be the safety drivers until they finish validation whenever that is. The real issue is that we don't know what will happen during those unspecified "billions of miles" of validation. Will 2 billion miles of testing with additional software updates be enough to make it to at least L3 autonomy or will 2 billion miles of testing in the public's hands reveal that the cars really do need more hardware?
Honestly, I don't think we can parse Musk's words that deeply. He has said before that feature complete will require AP3 and we now have a written promise from Tesla (not Musk) that FSD buyers will get the AP3 chip as soon as they finish testing it. Plus, the Model Y is due Fall 2020 at the earliest so it will probably get the AP3 chip. So maybe in the context of the Model Y reveal, he was just saying that the Model Y with AP3 will only need software updates? Or maybe he was just making a general marketing boast like "ain't it great that our cars will get these cool features with just software updates?"
So I would not read too much into it at this point. The only thing that really matters is what Tesla actually does. If Tesla releases a software update to AP2 owners without the AP3 upgrade and says, "you are now FSD feature complete", then we can discuss that.
'
Did I miss a memo somewhere? Where is this written? And Tesla had written / blogged a few things that have never come to pass.
diplomat33
Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
I posted it a few posts up. Here it is again. It's a written email from Tesla to a customer:
I posted it a few posts up. Here it is again. It's a written email from Tesla to a customer:
If we are taking Tesla supper emails as facts, I guess I need to run on butt to the SC for my hardware upgrade...
I don't know which is worse, the failed redaction, or the lack of context.
Not necessarily. Elon was asked on Twitter if his shoes were a "one more thing". His response "There was something, but no one caught it". I suspect he is referring to the HW3 chip/computer already being in production, and therefore his statement that "just software upgrades are needed" would stand true.
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