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Tesla autopilot HW3

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So if I spend the time to go look up what was said about AP1 in earnings call, not related to financial safe harbors, you'll just find another way to defend that too? Look you can defend all day...but sometimes you have to come out in to the light of day to actually see.

Was that AP1 before the ME split?
I'm not trying to defend anything. I'm giving the data involved in people's claims that Tesla/ Elon is not saying that FSD patrons get HW3 upgrade free. I'm also pointing out how conspiracy theory/ pessimistic some of these arguments are...

I get the pessimism, but I'm not going to agree with unfounded extrapolation.
 
I wan't referring to a new car purely for an AP upgrade, I was talking about people who had a lease, followed by another lease. Of a car that got totaled, or those that trad in for a new/ faster/ different model.

Which results in a new car. Tesla allowing the transfer of FSD wouldn't make sense unless things besides the AP computer need to be changed.
 
Was that AP1 before the ME split?
I'm not trying to defend anything. I'm giving the data involved in people's claims that Tesla/ Elon is not saying that FSD patrons get HW3 upgrade free. I'm also pointing out how conspiracy theory/ pessimistic some of these arguments are...

I get the pessimism, but I'm not going to agree with unfounded extrapolation.

Yes it was before the ME split. Tesla did NOT make us AP1 owners whole from promises made then. Look I do hope we all get our HW3 FSD upgrades, I paid for 2, but Tesla’s current posture is foreboding. You may ask why I am being so tough on Tesla this time around.... I just want them to be held accountable and make us whole....whether it’s HW3 or new cars....I just don’t want them pulling another AP1 on all of us
 
Which results in a new car. Tesla allowing the transfer of FSD wouldn't make sense unless things besides the AP computer need to be changed.

I don't think you understand my point. I'm talking about people who have to switch cars for other reasons.
Person on lease buys FSD. FSD comes out 6 months before lease ends, person gets half a year of the feature. End of story.
Or, they trade in the car for another Tesla and still have FSD without needing to pay for it again.
Another route is 100% option value at time of trade in, but that doesn't help if the car is totaled (which is interesting from a (gap) insurance POV).
 
Was that AP1 before the ME split?
I'm not trying to defend anything. I'm giving the data involved in people's claims that Tesla/ Elon is not saying that FSD patrons get HW3 upgrade free. I'm also pointing out how conspiracy theory/ pessimistic some of these arguments are...

I get the pessimism, but I'm not going to agree with unfounded extrapolation.

Tesla announced AP1 navigation-based exit-taking in Q3/2016 after the MobilEye split and did not deliver it. This was no Elon Musk tweet, it was a major announcement by the company and weeks/months after the split.
 
Tesla announced AP1 navigation-based exit-taking in Q3/2016 after the MobilEye split and did not deliver it. This was no Elon Musk tweet, it was a major announcement by the company and weeks/months after the split.

I'm not seeing anything on the blog in that time frame other than the Oct 2016 AP2 blog post, can you give a link to the announcement?

(Wow, hard to believe Oct 2015 was the AP1 release)
 
I think the Y will be telling in regards to what happens with HW3.

I see 3 obvious possibilities:
1) The Model Y gets AP2.5. 25% chance
2) The Model Y gets AP3. 70% chance
3) The Model Y bypasses AP3 completely and gets radically new "AP4" hardware with additional cameras and maybe even LIDAR. 5% chance

If 1) happens it could signal that FSD actually will work on AP2.5 or that Tesla is having problems with AP3. Of course, since it would be easily upgradeable to AP3, Tesla may go with AP2.5 for the Model Y now until they are ready to roll out AP3 upgrades. So it could mean "nothing" really.

If 2) happens it would be a good sign that Tesla is ready for AP3 and FSD will work on AP3. I think this scenario is most likely and also most favorable to AP2 owners getting the AP3 upgrade.

If 3) happens, it could suggest that FSD won't even work on AP3 and Tesla was wrong on the current hardware being good enough for FSD. Or it could suggest that "basic FSD" will work on AP3 but Tesla is already future proofing for how to get to true L4 autonomy. This possibility would obviously raise huge red flags though and it would very depressing for current AP2 owners as it would most likely signal the end of the line for AP2 and no free upgrades. Frankly, I don't think this option is very likely. For one, we've gotten no leaks about new hardware beyond AP3. I also think this is unlikely because it would mean Tesla cars with radically different hardware to account for. You'd have Model S cars with mostly AP2, Model 3 cars with AP2.5 and then new Model Y cars with AP4. That would make software more difficult.
 
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I'm not seeing anything on the blog in that time frame other than the Oct 2016 AP2 blog post, can you give a link to the announcement?

(Wow, hard to believe Oct 2015 was the AP1 release)

Check Teslarati at the end of Q3/2016.

It was part of the 8.0 firmware hooplah and they preannounced it for firmware 8.1 in December. This was a couple of weeks before AP2 announcement but well after the MobilEye split.
 
"Elon Time"... ;)

Elon is actively denying the differences in hw2.0 to hw2.5 sensor suites too. Promised dashcam and sentry mode to hw2.0 cars.

Was that AP1 before the ME split?
I'm not trying to defend anything. I'm giving the data involved in people's claims that Tesla/ Elon is not saying that FSD patrons get HW3 upgrade free. I'm also pointing out how conspiracy theory/ pessimistic some of these arguments are...

I get the pessimism, but I'm not going to agree with unfounded extrapolation.

From today:
Yes (Elon: Correct) FSD purchases get HW3.

kCxxVtz.jpg
 
Perhaps hard to believe because it was actually a year earlier?

Oct 2014 was the start of HW, Oct 2015 was the first version of software.

Check Teslarati at the end of Q3/2016.

It was part of the 8.0 firmware hooplah and they preannounced it for firmware 8.1 in December. This was a couple of weeks before AP2 announcement but well after the MobilEye split.

this seems close but is post AP2... Get ready for more Tesla software updates: v8.1 Autopilot and UI improvements to come
Version 8.1 of Autopilot is said to have the ability to automatically take highway exits using the onboard Navigation feature. Presumably, if a driver enters a destination address on Nav, Model S and Model X will be able to provide Autosteer capabilities and follow the blue line and exit freeways, when applicable.
 
Ok, so in August 2018 it was promised that something would probably happen in 4-6 months. Today, 7 months later, nothing have happened yet... But of course people parade just part of that message as the ironclad promise, right?

But, it's an Elon time frame.

Everyone knows to double it.

So we have to wait till August 2019 before trying to assess that statement. Plus we're talking about new hardware of the type that the company has never done before.

As to Ironclad promises. I'm afraid we don't get them with Tesla. I usually feel more comfortable with what's on their blog or order page, but even those things come and go without any evidence that they were even attempted.