Tesla autopilot HW3

[run-the-joules]

In a few years all of you AP2.5 owners will be complaining about not being upgraded to the needed AP5 hardware needed for FSD.

and rightly so. That's what we were promised, after all.

 

[DrDabbles]

Isn’t every single retrofit an FSD owner? They aren’t going to retrofit any EAP cars with HW3.

You can pay for an upgrade even if you don't have FSD. That was one of the perks of buying FSD- "free" access to hardware upgrade.

I think this priority is to employees first to gauge/refine the process of the retrofit service before expanding to all the FSD purchasers.

Seems probable.

Tech today said it doesn’t require a full tear down of the dash like the screen replacement. But caveated he hasn’t done it yet.

You only have to take the glove box apart, there are already a dozen videos on youtube of how to get access to the computer.

There's no actual proof or even strong evidence to indicate that FSD purchasers will get early access to anything.

Oh, you didn't hear? Now every FSD owner is an early access member.

Don't think it's necessarily Texas,

It literally is Texas. They're not allowed to sell you a car in one of their galleries in Texas, because Texas bends to the whims of the dealership association. They can't even discuss pricing with you. Texas and Connecticut are the only two states in the US where direct sales are illegal. Why It’s Hard To Buy A Tesla In Texas | Texas Standard Any time you find yourself in the company of Connecticut when it comes to government corruption, you've made a grave mistake.

Even better, this year saw legislation proposed to make it illegal for Tesla to service their cars in Texas. Thankfully, from what I remember, the legislation didn't pass. But not for lack of trying. If Texas lawmakers get their way, Tesla won’t be able to fix its own cars

Texas is absurd.

 

[NHK X]

You can pay for an upgrade even if you don't have FSD. That was one of the perks of buying FSD- "free" access to hardware upgrade.



Seems probable.



You only have to take the glove box apart, there are already a dozen videos on youtube of how to get access to the computer.



Oh, you didn't hear? Now every FSD owner is an early access member.



It literally is Texas. They're not allowed to sell you a car in one of their galleries in Texas, because Texas bends to the whims of the dealership association. They can't even discuss pricing with you. Texas and Connecticut are the only two states in the US where direct sales are illegal. Why It’s Hard To Buy A Tesla In Texas | Texas Standard Any time you find yourself in the company of Connecticut when it comes to government corruption, you've made a grave mistake.

Even better, this year saw legislation proposed to make it illegal for Tesla to service their cars in Texas. Thankfully, from what I remember, the legislation didn't pass. But not for lack of trying. If Texas lawmakers get their way, Tesla won’t be able to fix its own cars

Texas is absurd.

Yeah, I totally understand that about Texas. I’ve been following closely. What I am saying is that the issues I had with customer service didn’t have to do with what you mentioned.

Overall, the system is overloaded. On the customer end you feel it more especially where I live as it is covered by the broader Texas mobile service division. Poor communication, had appt cancelled twice less than two days before the appt as correct parts weren’t ordered ect. It’s all stuff that isn’t specific to Texas but felt more as there is no phone contact for my service lite center and email communication is sparse. All growing pains that will improve.

 

[dgatwood]

Unless of course you were bitten by reality as a buyer of AP2 who was promised AP1 feature parity by end of 2016, which still hasnt happened yet (speed sign recognition is still sorely missing - and it might take a very long time until they find a way around Mobileyes computer vision patent on it).

There are two broad categories of patent that you could be talking about: The vague, generic "on a computer" type patents, which are usually overturned, and the specific ones that precisely describe a method for doing so, which are usually easily worked around as long as you are aware of them. I very much doubt that patents are what is preventing that from happening. Lack of adequate processing power, lack of adequate engineers to work on the feature, etc. are far more plausible.

 

[electronblue]

I am already seeing the rhetoric that HW3 update priority doesn’t matter! No feature is using it yet. Yes, just like AP2.5 was just ”AP2.1” and there was no diffence... one day it will be different and where will we be then?

There will very likely be people without FSD retrofits (through no fault of their own) once features making use of it start appearing, so there is a genuine reason to ask pre-emptiveness from Tesla. If we don’t, one day the updates start coming and we’re still without.

So, how about it Tesla, we know you are reading. Start with AP2s, right? We’ve waited the longest, in many cases paid more and were promised the most — with the most promises broken to boot.

We’re a limited number. Easy to do the right thing here.

 

[Saghost]

I am already seeing the rhetoric that HW3 update priority doesn’t matter! No feature is using it yet. Yes, just like AP2.5 was just ”AP2.1” and there was no diffence... one day it will be different and where will we be then?

There will very likely be people without FSD retrofits (through no fault of their own) once features making use of it start appearing, so there is a genuine reason to ask pre-emptiveness from Tesla. If we don’t, one day the updates start coming and we’re still without.

So, how about it Tesla, we know you are reading. Start with AP2s, right? We’ve waited the longest, in many cases paid more and were promised the most — with the most promises broken to boot.

We’re a limited number. Easy to do the right thing here.

Tesla changed a bunch of sensors for AP2.5 from AP2 - and to the best of our knowledge, didn't change them from the AP2.5 version for AP3.

That means the AP3 swap on a 2.5 should be a straight computer swap, while the AP2 version will either need new sensors too or the code will have to be changed to handle the sensor differences.

Not disagreeing about the right thing, but it seems like the AP2.5 retrofit is significantly easier from a technical or logistics standpoint (depending on which way they go.)

 

[NHK X]

I am already seeing the rhetoric that HW3 update priority doesn’t matter! No feature is using it yet. Yes, just like AP2.5 was just ”AP2.1” and there was no diffence... one day it will be different and where will we be then?

There will very likely be people without FSD retrofits (through no fault of their own) once features making use of it start appearing, so there is a genuine reason to ask pre-emptiveness from Tesla. If we don’t, one day the updates start coming and we’re still without.

So, how about it Tesla, we know you are reading. Start with AP2s, right? We’ve waited the longest, in many cases paid more and were promised the most — with the most promises broken to boot.

We’re a limited number. Easy to do the right thing here.

Even as a HW2.5 owner, agree that priority should go to the ones who have waited the longest. But wouldn’t be surprised if Tesla does things to have a more representative sample in terms of software development. Best of luck, hope you are one of the early lottery winners!

 

[conman]

So, how about it Tesla, we know you are reading. Start with AP2s, right? We’ve waited the longest, in many cases paid more and were promised the most — with the most promises broken to boot.

We’re a limited number. Easy to do the right thing here.

I'm with you too, I was an "investomer" in FSD with AP2 hardware. Realistically, I don't think we stand a snowball's chance in hell of being first, unfortunately, which I'm sure you know as well. Add to that the delays of being in a non-North American country and HW3 upgrades for V10 for (yet more promises of) FSD features that don't exist and it makes me wonder if I'll ever see anything at all for my early FSD prepayment for the life of my vehicle. Our autopilot features are over a year behind now so where does that leave us for FSD?

 

[timewasted]

The only fair way to handle scheduling for AP3 upgrades is:

SELECT * FROM vehicles WHERE opt_fsd=1 ORDER BY opt_fsd_purchased_at ASC

Unfortunately, I fully expect their query to actually be:

SELECT * FROM vehicles WHERE opt_fsd=1 AND ap_hw_rev>2 ORDER BY celebrity_status DESC, opt_fsd_purchased_at DESC

I hope Elon can prove me wrong on this, but I’m not going to hold my breath.

 

[Bet TSLA]

The only fair way to handle scheduling for AP3 upgrades is:...

The early upgrades will obviously be scheduled to provide a variety of configurations (so Tesla can size the effort and adjust for any problems they run into) and be for people who are unlikely to whine and complain if there are any problems. Once they've got the process down, they'll go wide and I don't think it will matter much what order they go in.

But inevitably, those fairly early in the queue will, once it is discovered that Tesla improved something from their experience and the later ones are "better", will whine and complain some more. This is so predictable.

 

[GlennH]

You can pay for an upgrade even if you don't have FSD. That was one of the perks of buying FSD- "free" access to hardware upgrade.



Seems probable.



You only have to take the glove box apart, there are already a dozen videos on youtube of how to get access to the computer.



Oh, you didn't hear? Now every FSD owner is an early access member.



It literally is Texas. They're not allowed to sell you a car in one of their galleries in Texas, because Texas bends to the whims of the dealership association. They can't even discuss pricing with you. Texas and Connecticut are the only two states in the US where direct sales are illegal. Why It’s Hard To Buy A Tesla In Texas | Texas Standard Any time you find yourself in the company of Connecticut when it comes to government corruption, you've made a grave mistake.

Even better, this year saw legislation proposed to make it illegal for Tesla to service their cars in Texas. Thankfully, from what I remember, the legislation didn't pass. But not for lack of trying. If Texas lawmakers get their way, Tesla won’t be able to fix its own cars

Texas is absurd.

 

[GlennH]

You can pay for an upgrade even if you don't have FSD. That was one of the perks of buying FSD- "free" access to hardware upgrade.



Seems probable.



You only have to take the glove box apart, there are already a dozen videos on youtube of how to get access to the computer.



Oh, you didn't hear? Now every FSD owner is an early access member.



It literally is Texas. They're not allowed to sell you a car in one of their galleries in Texas, because Texas bends to the whims of the dealership association. They can't even discuss pricing with you. Texas and Connecticut are the only two states in the US where direct sales are illegal. Why It’s Hard To Buy A Tesla In Texas | Texas Standard Any time you find yourself in the company of Connecticut when it comes to government corruption, you've made a grave mistake.

Even better, this year saw legislation proposed to make it illegal for Tesla to service their cars in Texas. Thankfully, from what I remember, the legislation didn't pass. But not for lack of trying. If Texas lawmakers get their way, Tesla won’t be able to fix its own cars

Texas is absurd.

Hmmm -- Does Texas have a big interest in consumption of oil and gasoline or something? ;-)

 

[EVNow]

The only fair way to handle scheduling for AP3 upgrades is:

SELECT * FROM vehicles WHERE opt_fsd=1 ORDER BY opt_fsd_purchased_at ASC

Unfortunately, I fully expect their query to actually be:

SELECT * FROM vehicles WHERE opt_fsd=1 AND ap_hw_rev>2 ORDER BY celebrity_status DESC, opt_fsd_purchased_at DESC

I hope Elon can prove me wrong on this, but I’m not going to hold my breath.

You know table names should be singular, right ?

While saying what is and isn’t fair is fair, Tesla has to consider other things like cost and reliability before scheduling the upgrades.

 

[azred]

While I have two Teslas needing the HW3 upgrade, I am not sure why anyone is that worried about getting the upgrade anytime soon.. Does anyone seriously believe Tesla will be able to flawlessly handle stoplights and various signage anytime in the next two years? Heck, my cars still go crazy when two lanes merge and that is surely child’s play compared to handling stoplights and signage. And unlike the lane merger problem that can be easily managed by taking control, how will failure to stop at a stoplight or blowing through a stop sign or yield sign work out? I use autopilot a lot and view it as a 15 year old beginning driver. It has great vision and reflexes, but requires adult supervision. The various quirks on freeways happen slowly enough to manage as long as I am paying attention but that all changes with FSD on the streets.

 

[Matias]

There are two broad categories of patent that you could be talking about: The vague, generic "on a computer" type patents, which are usually overturned, and the specific ones that precisely describe a method for doing so, which are usually easily worked around as long as you are aware of them. I very much doubt that patents are what is preventing that from happening. Lack of adequate processing power, lack of adequate engineers to work on the feature, etc. are far more plausible.

AP1 has a processing power of a potato and it does it.

 

[electronblue]

I'm with you too, I was an "investomer" in FSD with AP2 hardware. Realistically, I don't think we stand a snowball's chance in hell of being first, unfortunately, which I'm sure you know as well.

Of course that is likely, but I expressed what I think would be right — and while the group 1 roll-out has apparently started with AP 2.5 in limited fashion, there is still time for Tesla to make sure AP2 is first in any volume roll-out.

 

[electronblue]

The early upgrades will obviously be scheduled to provide a variety of configurations (so Tesla can size the effort and adjust for any problems they run into) and be for people who are unlikely to whine and complain if there are any problems. Once they've got the process down, they'll go wide and I don't think it will matter much what order they go in.

But inevitably, those fairly early in the queue will, once it is discovered that Tesla improved something from their experience and the later ones are "better", will whine and complain some more. This is so predictable.

I would have to say, AP2 FSD buyers from 2016 can ”whine” quite a lot before an objective observer would find it unreasonable. It really was a bad play from Tesla and now is their chance to make some of it right. They should. AP2 cars are limited in number, that is not an issue either.

I don’t even care about my personal car. 90% of AP2 done first would suffice as a good move even if they skip mine and a few others for whatever reason for a later date. I would give credit for that. Make a genuine effort.

 

[Octo]

The early upgrades will obviously be scheduled to provide a variety of configurations (so Tesla can size the effort and adjust for any problems they run into) and be for people who are unlikely to whine and complain if there are any problems. Once they've got the process down, they'll go wide and I don't think it will matter much what order they go in.

But inevitably, those fairly early in the queue will, once it is discovered that Tesla improved something from their experience and the later ones are "better", will whine and complain some more. This is so predictable.

If Tesla has your attitude towards their customers (“whiners”) who spent around $6000 on vapor (so far), I would not bet on TSLA.

 

[timewasted]

You know table names should be singular, right ?

While saying what is and isn’t fair is fair, Tesla has to consider other things like cost and reliability before scheduling the upgrades.

I’m sure there are customer tables to join in as well.

Didn’t Tesla talk about how many years AP3 has been in development during their autonomy day presentation? There was a leaked e-mail just a couple weeks shy of a year ago talking about wanting to get employees running AP3 so they could start collecting data from the cars, so internal testing has been happening for roughly a year now. AP3 has also been shipping in new customer vehicles for 3-4 months at this point. They’re even taking to surprising random customers with the upgrade during a service visit.

This is all a very long-winded way of saying that the time to consider “cost and reliability” has long since passed, since that’s something that you do before you start rolling it out to customers.

Also, the rollout of this to customers is honestly a super easy logistical problem. I’ve posted this before, but it’s worth repeating. Tesla has a record of every car sold, the date it was purchased, all the options, and probably the date those options were purchased. Tesla also knows the locations that the cars call home, so they know the closest service center. They know how long the retrofit will take, and they know the general service load of each service center. Tesla is also capable of sending an e-mail blast to their customers with a simple “I’d prefer my upgrade sooner”/“I’ll wait a little while” form to gauge interest in the retrofits.

Given all of that, it is super easy to send each service center enough AP3 kits to handle a week’s worth of retrofits each and every week until that service center has cleared their backlogs. They should, as an established car company, already have all these logistical pipelines in place.

Anything less than this is, in my eyes, another failure by Tesla.

 

[Holo]

While I have two Teslas needing the HW3 upgrade, I am not sure why anyone is that worried about getting the upgrade anytime soon.. Does anyone seriously believe Tesla will be able to flawlessly handle stoplights and various signage anytime in the next two years? Heck, my cars still go crazy when two lanes merge and that is surely child’s play compared to handling stoplights and signage. And unlike the lane merger problem that can be easily managed by taking control, how will failure to stop at a stoplight or blowing through a stop sign or yield sign work out? I use autopilot a lot and view it as a 15 year old beginning driver. It has great vision and reflexes, but requires adult supervision. The various quirks on freeways happen slowly enough to manage as long as I am paying attention but that all changes with FSD on the streets.

I agree completely. I have a 2018 MS and I use AP all the time. In my case I have described its behavior as a 16 year old on a learner's permit. Probably reflects my state's age requirements to obtain a permit.