Tesla batteries designed last to 10 years

[scaesare]

Do you think the Gigafactory will enable that just due to sheer production capacity? Because right now Tesla seems to have zero interest in offering upgrades for classic cars. And if they ever change the battery form factor making it incompatible with the older cars, then I would say the chances of being able to upgrade a battery on a 10 or more year old car from Tesla go to zero.

Maybe 3rd parties will pick up the market.

I think the overall drivers will be different for replacement for end-of-life batteries than it it is for performance/capacity upgrades.

Replacing EOL packs will:

- Have large demand: There are 100K's of cars today that will reach this state within a few years of each other in the future. There will be millions soon.

- Be necessary: Cars will become increasingly unusable without them.

- Have a PR impact: Manufacturers won't want the perception the car has to be "thrown away", when the HV pack wears out

- Become increasingly plausible: Once battery manufacturing capacity catches up (at least somewhat) with demand, the logistics of manufacturing replacement packs is less problematic


So I suspects manufacturers will allow for it to some degree (although I'm sure they'd be happy to sell you a new car vehicle instead), but I also expect a 3rd-party industry will crop up as well...

 

[azred]

Do you think the Gigafactory will enable that just due to sheer production capacity? Because right now Tesla seems to have zero interest in offering upgrades for classic cars. And if they ever change the battery form factor making it incompatible with the older cars, then I would say the chances of being able to upgrade a battery on a 10 or more year old car from Tesla go to zero.

Maybe 3rd parties will pick up the market.

Given the large number of people who lease or sell their cars after three or four years, it seems like this issue isn't taken very seriously on this forum. But my wife and I do tend to keep our cars a long time and as we consider following through on our Model 3 deposit to buy a second Tesla this is my primary concern. (The first is whether Tesla as an independent company will still be around in ten years.)

 

[Az_Rael]

I think the overall drivers will be different for replacement for end-of-life batteries than it it is for performance/capacity upgrades.

Replacing EOL packs will:

- Have large demand: There are 100K's of cars today that will reach this state within a few years of each other in the future. There will be millions soon.

- Be necessary: Cars will become increasingly unusable without them.

- Have a PR impact: Manufacturers won't want the perception the car has to be "thrown away", when the HV pack wears out

- Become increasingly plausible: Once battery manufacturing capacity catches up (at least somewhat) with demand, the logistics of manufacturing replacement packs is less problematic


So I suspects manufacturers will allow for it to some degree (although I'm sure they'd be happy to sell you a new car vehicle instead), but I also expect a 3rd-party industry will crop up as well...

All good points. I wonder how low replacement pack costs would have to be to not be a PR issue for a manufacturer. Less than the costs of an ICE engine or transmission replacement?

 

[scaesare]

All good points. I wonder how low replacement pack costs would have to be to not be a PR issue for a manufacturer. Less than the costs of an ICE engine or transmission replacement?

I'd hope so. Having to plow $15-20K in to a 10 yr old vehicle would seem to be a non-starter...

 

[animorph]

Tesla has been upgrading battery packs for Roadsters, so there is some precedent for that.

 

[mspohr]

There are lots of problems with reusing used battery packs as grid storage. First, you have to repackage the modules into a weather proof enclosure. Right there you've thrown the economics out the window since these packs were not made to be disassembled easily.

The batteries are already packed in a weatherproof container. Just plug it into an inverter /charger.

 

[Uncle Paul]

For people with Solar, or time of use metering at their homes, I would imaging that there will be a market for used (but still useful) auto battery packs to be hung, flat on a garage wall or underneath their parked cars, that will power homes during times of peak costs, outages or outages. Would be a less expensive option to residential powerwalls.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Utilities don't have empty buildings just lying around...

If I recall correctly, when the consultant for ONCOR was calculating the breakeven battery cost for mass deployment, it included figuring that they'd be able to have batteries in buildings that could still be leased to customers. I'd have thought that in some locations having batteries in basements would be desirable.

They could be put in new buildings, so land prices would be relevant.

 

[dgpcolorado]

For people with Solar, or time of use metering at their homes, I would imaging that there will be a market for used (but still useful) auto battery packs to be hung, flat on a garage wall or underneath their parked cars, that will power homes during times of peak costs, outages or outages. Would be a less expensive option to residential powerwalls.

How would you hook up and operate the cooling system in such an application?

 

[henderrj]

How would you hook up and operate the cooling system in such an application?

You wouldn't. At least Jason Hughes didn't in his application. Said the use was so low compared to the use in the car it never got hot enough. I'm sure he knows what he's talking about given all that he's done.

 

[SunCatcher]

I wonder how much it will cost to replace a Tesla battery if it fails at 10 years (2 years past the warranty).

Bump.

I wonder how much it would cost Tesla to replace batteries in tens of thousands of their cars if the batteries are not able to last for the 8 year warranty period. As a TSLA investor, this is one of my biggest concerns. I know that there have been reports of owners racking up 200,000 miles on their Model S's, with amazingly high charging capacities left. The unknown is lifespan in terms of age. It seems like the only way we'll know the answer to this is when 8 years comes and goes on the first cars produced. How are the Roadster batteries holding up, and what age would their battery packs be reaching by now? When this time threshold is crossed, I think I'll breathe easier.

I'm a worrier. I want badly for Tesla to withstand the tests of time. Not just as an investor, but as a concerned citizen who wants this brilliant company, and its ideas, to succeed.

 

[henderrj]

Bump.

I wonder how much it would cost Tesla to replace batteries in tens of thousands of their cars if the batteries are not able to last for the 8 year warranty period. As a TSLA investor, this is one of my biggest concerns. I know that there have been reports of owners racking up 200,000 miles on their Model S's, with amazingly high charging capacities left. The unknown is lifespan in terms of age. It seems like the only way we'll know the answer to this is when 8 years comes and goes on the first cars produced. How are the Roadster batteries holding up, and what age would their battery packs be reaching by now? When this time threshold is crossed, I think I'll breathe easier.

I'm a worrier. I want badly for Tesla to withstand the tests of time. Not just as an investor, but as a concerned citizen who wants this brilliant company, and its ideas, to succeed.

It has, indeed, been 8 years since I first read about a test drive of the Roadster. I think you can begin to breath easier!

Who's the comedian that said "I was walking down the road and suddenly the prescription on my eyeglasses expired"? I think Dr Dahn's point was that they would stay within new tolerance in ten years - which I think means less than 15% degradation. Don't think they'll suddenly die. I am confident my 85 will still get more than 200 miles of range in a dozen years, maybe even more.

 

[Az_Rael]

The real question may be how much the components inside the pack that fail cost to repair out of warranty. I have seen several reports here of folks having components in the battery go bad requiring a loaner battery for several months while their battery is refurbished. One unlucky person actually had a battery component fail twice already.

It's all been under warranty so far, but it does happen, so it will be interesting to see how much that will cost out of warranty.

 

[ecarfan]

I wonder how much it would cost Tesla to replace batteries in tens of thousands of their cars if the batteries are not able to last for the 8 year warranty period. As a TSLA investor, this is one of my biggest concerns. I know that there have been reports of owners racking up 200,000 miles on their Model S's, with amazingly high charging capacities left. The unknown is lifespan in terms of age. It seems like the only way we'll know the answer to this is when 8 years comes and goes on the first cars produced. How are the Roadster batteries holding up, and what age would their battery packs be reaching by now?

The Roadster batteries are only roughly comparable to even the first Model S batteries, which are clearly improved. But the data so far at Plugin America shows remarkably good Tesla battery longevity. That is related to number of charge cycles and miles driven. As a TSLA investor I am not particularly concerned about that aspect of Tesla's future.

And in 5 years the cost to replace a Tesla battery will likely be less than the cost of a good quality ICE replacement.

 

[dgpcolorado]

The real question may be how much the components inside the pack that fail cost to repair out of warranty. I have seen several reports here of folks having components in the battery go bad requiring a loaner battery for several months while their battery is refurbished. One unlucky person actually had a battery component fail twice already.

It's all been under warranty so far, but it does happen, so it will be interesting to see how much that will cost out of warranty.

That is going to be me in the near future. I am in the process of trying to convince Tesla service that a 13% RM range reduction is not normal for a three year old car with 29k miles on it. Downside is that I am 338 miles from the nearest Service Center so the nuisance value of the service is rather high.

 

[SunCatcher]

Thanks all, for your excellent responses.

 

[wcfinvader]

The Roadster batteries are only roughly comparable to even the first Model S batteries, which are clearly improved. But the data so far at Plugin America shows remarkably good Tesla battery longevity. That is related to number of charge cycles and miles driven. As a TSLA investor I am not particularly concerned about that aspect of Tesla's future.

And in 5 years the cost to replace a Tesla battery will likely be less than the cost of a good quality ICE replacement.

That's what they said 5 years ago. Battery pack prices are still quite high. They also won't allow battery upgrades which they promised. Our car has over 100k miles and we've lost ~20 rated miles. If we lose ~10 rated miles a year then what good is the car once 8 years old if given the current trend of our car it would have a estimated 185 rated miles by that point. We will certainly need a upgrade long before that point which is why we've been pushing for a upgrade. Our battery just failed for the second time so we are hopeful that we will be able to obtain the 100kwh upgrade even though I think it's a long shot.

 

[ecarfan]

That's what they said 5 years ago. Battery pack prices are still quite high.

And that is because the Gigafactory is not up to full output, that is going to take another few years. And during that time the second and maybe third Gigafactory will get started. All of that will drive down pack prices considerably.

Our car has over 100k miles and we've lost ~20 rated miles.

That's all the range you've lost? That is impressive battery performance.

My impression is that you disagree.

At 57K miles my full charge has gone from 265 when new to 254. If at 100K miles my full charge is at 245 I think that will be very satisfactory.

 

[gregd]

That is going to be me in the near future. I am in the process of trying to convince Tesla service that a 13% RM range reduction is not normal for a three year old car with 29k miles on it. Downside is that I am 338 miles from the nearest Service Center so the nuisance value of the service is rather high.

For what it's worth, my Roadster has also lost about 13%, but I'm at over 7 years and 42k miles. Different battery chemistry, yes, but yours should be better. No?

 

[SunCatcher]

For what it's worth, my Roadster has also lost about 13%, but I'm at over 7 years and 42k miles. Different battery chemistry, yes, but yours should be better. No?

I have to say.... I'm still shaking my head in disbelief that batteries can be made to last this long, and serve this hard, and still keep going. Eveready Battery Bunny on steroids, that's what Tesla has developed. Simply amazing. And they keep improving them to be even better.