Tesla confirms Model 3 will have less than 60kWh battery option

[SageBrush]

Gen II Prius is 2004-2009 and has a bladder that will only accept 7 to 9 gallons after you've had it for a couple of years.*
Gen III Prius 2010-2015 has a normal gas tank that will hold about 11 gallons
Prius C has a smaller gas tank that holds about 10 gallons

I have owned the Gen2 Prius and Lexus CTh200. We currently own a Prius (v)agon.

The bladder in the Gen2 Prius could indeed be an annoyance once or twice each winter season but I rarely had any problem putting in 10+gallons. I'll dig up my old spreadsheet if you doubt me. The CTh and (v)agon are Gen3 twins and hold 11.9 Gallons

 

[SageBrush]

Our long trips are from SW Colorado to Albuquerque. Too far for a base M3 without a charge in the middle but an en-route SC in Farmington is ~ 185 miles away from the destination. I imagine that it will be rare conditions that force me to drive slower than my usual 65 - 70 mph, at least until the battery ages significantly.

My only small annoyance will be having to fill the battery to full at the SC.

 

[brianman]

Random data point...

To upgrade from 85 kWh to 120 kWh, I'd have no issues paying +$20k -- assuming the range scaled roughly linearly.

 

[SageBrush]

assuming the range scaled roughly linearly

Bad assumption due to the extra weight

 

[brianman]

Bad assumption due to the extra weight

If you include a lot of other assumptions you're making, sure....

 

[JeffK]

Bad assumption due to the extra weight

I agree, I don't think a lot of people are realizing about the extra weight when they want a higher capacity battery pack. They don't want the inconvenience of using a public supercharger a handful of times a year so they'd just rather carry the extra weight the rest of the year and waste energy/$ in addition to the increased purchase price.

If someone does a lot of travelling though then the added range would be worth it.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Bad assumption due to the extra weight

The presumes there will be extra weight however (which might not necessarily be the case).

 

[Red Sage]

The presumes there will be extra weight however (which might not necessarily be the case).

Exactly. I believe that improvements in battery technology will not only be Cumulative, but Compounding as well, over time. Eventually, a lot more energy will be stored in a much smaller space, weighing much less than ever before. Well before battery technology is on an even footing with liquid fuels on volume and weight they will have replaced them because of efficiency. The time will come when 120 kWh of energy can be stored in as little space as 60 kWh would have been in 2012.

 

[jkk_]

Get 215 if you want, but don't minimize peoples concerns.

Well said, 215 might be plenty for some, and that's fine. But some need more.

 

[tomas]

Doug, Danny... Definitely something wrong. This thread had a secret gateway into a Prius forum.

 

[JeffK]

Doug, Danny... Definitely something wrong. This thread had a secret gateway into a Prius forum.

LA Times reported in 2014 that over 25% of Tesla buyers were transitioning from a Toyota manufacturer car, most were Prius models, so this makes sense.

Many of us finally have the ability to get a Tesla.

 

[tomas]

LA Times reported in 2014 that over 25% of Tesla buyers were transitioning from a Toyota manufacturer car, most were Prius models, so this makes sense.

Many of us finally have the ability to get a Tesla.

Does anybody remember laughter?

 

[houdini]

I'm on the extreme end of driving and mileage needs at ~120 miles/day. In theory, a 215 mile EV would be fine for me almost 100% of the time. That said, I'm likely to purchase the larger battery for a few reasons:
.

I'll go for the larger pack for one reason and one reason only - to get the car sooner . If the smallest pack, performance version, or whatever means I get the vehicle months sooner it's a done deal.

 

[Yanquetino]

As we all know, miles-per-kWh is the key factor to speculate about battery size and range. Perhaps it would be helpful to compare the MPkWh of the current EVs on the market. This table lists the EPA results, lowest to highest:

I have no doubt that owners routinely achieve higher MPkWh than the EPA ratings. After all, I have averaged 5.4 MPkWh in my Nissan LEAF after 4 years, significanty higher than the 3.042 in this table. Regardless, since Musk claimed that the base Model 3 will have a EPA range of 215 miles, this is the measuring stick we should use to calculate reasonable speculations. Here are the results with different sizes of battery packs:

What the table suggests is that, to achieve an "EPA Total Range" of 215 miles with a 50 kWh pack, the Model 3's MPkWh would have to approximate that of a Chevy Spark EV. And with a 55 kWh battery, it would have to exceed that of a Mitsubishi i-MIEV.

Is it possible to extract such a high level of energy efficiency from the pack? Perhaps, but I have my doubts. Given the size of the Model 3, my own guess is that its MPkWh will likely be similar to those for the Nissan LEAF and the BMW i3 above --which would necessitate... a 60 kWh battery pack. Anything less would require a much lighter battery and an impressively slick drag coefficient. Only time will tell if Tesla can pull that off.

 

[zenmaster]

As we all know, miles-per-kWh is the key factor to speculate about battery size and range. Perhaps it would be helpful to compare the MPkWh of the current EVs on the market. This table lists the EPA results, lowest to highest:

* MPkWh Comparison

• Yanquetino
• May 22, 2016

I have no doubt that owners routinely achieve higher MPkWh than the EPA ratings. After all, I have averaged 5.4 MPkWh in my Nissan LEAF after 4 years, significanty higher than the 3.042 in this table. Regardless, since Musk claimed that the base Model 3 will have a EPA range of 215 miles, this is the measuring stick we should use to calculate reasonable speculations. Here are the results with different sizes of battery packs:

* MPkWh Speculation

• Yanquetino
• May 22, 2016

What the table suggests is that, to achieve an "EPA Total Range" of 215 miles with a 50 kWh pack, the Model 3's MPkWh would have to approximate that of a Chevy Spark EV. And with a 55 kWh battery, it would have to exceed that of a Mitsubishi i-MIEV.

Is it possible to extract such a high level of energy efficiency from the pack? Perhaps, but I have my doubts. Given the size of the Model 3, my own guess is that its MPkWh will likely be similar to those for the Nissan LEAF and the BMW i3 above --which would necessitate... a 60 kWh battery pack. Anything less would require a much lighter battery and an impressively slick drag coefficient. Only time will tell if Tesla can pull that off.

If the Model 3 had a 75kWh battery with same tech as Model S, it would go at least 320 miles. This is based only on weight estimates. The reduced drag should extend this range some number of miles.

 

[Yanquetino]

If the Model 3 had a 75kWh battery with same tech as Model S, it would go at least 320 miles. This is based only on weight estimates. The reduced drag should extend this range some number of miles.

Maybe! We should note, however, that the MPkWh of the Model S 75D in the above table is only 3.453. To go 320 miles with a 75 kWh pack would require an EPA rated MPkWh of... 4.267. That would be an amazing level of efficiency for a car that size.

 

[FlatSix911]

Great post! Always nice to have some data driven analysis on this thread.

As we all know, miles-per-kWh is the key factor to speculate about battery size and range. Perhaps it would be helpful to compare the MPkWh of the current EVs on the market. This table lists the EPA results, lowest to highest:

I have no doubt that owners routinely achieve higher MPkWh than the EPA ratings. After all, I have averaged 5.4 MPkWh in my Nissan LEAF after 4 years, significanty higher than the 3.042 in this table. Regardless, since Musk claimed that the base Model 3 will have a EPA range of 215 miles, this is the measuring stick we should use to calculate reasonable speculations. Here are the results with different sizes of battery packs:

What the table suggests is that, to achieve an "EPA Total Range" of 215 miles with a 50 kWh pack, the Model 3's MPkWh would have to approximate that of a Chevy Spark EV. And with a 55 kWh battery, it would have to exceed that of a Mitsubishi i-MIEV.

Is it possible to extract such a high level of energy efficiency from the pack? Perhaps, but I have my doubts. Given the size of the Model 3, my own guess is that its MPkWh will likely be similar to those for the Nissan LEAF and the BMW i3 above --which would necessitate... a 60 kWh battery pack. Anything less would require a much lighter battery and an impressively slick drag coefficient. Only time will tell if Tesla can pull that off.

 

[zenmaster]

That would be an amazing level of efficiency for a car that size.

Ignore "size". Knowing battery capacity and the tech already used in another platform, we can simply recalculate for weight and Cd x frontal area to get a good approximation of range difference. Other factors include energy efficiency of motor and drivetrain loss, but these are going to be roughly equivalent.

 

[Yanquetino]

Ignore "size". Knowing battery capacity and the tech already used in another platform, we can simply recalculate for weight and Cd x frontal area to get a good approximation of range difference. Other factors include energy efficiency of motor and drivetrain loss, but these are going to be roughly equivalent.

Heh heh. I was actually referring of weight when using the term "size" --not merely L x H x W dimensions. Sorry to have not been more specific.

 

[zenmaster]

Heh heh. I was actually referring of weight when using the term "size" --not merely L x H x W dimensions. Sorry to have not been more specific.

It would be interesting to see how that list becomes re-ordered by these factors, because that would reveal the relative efficiency as far as EV tech.