Tesla confirms Model 3 will have less than 60kWh battery option

[wdolson]

I'm on the extreme end of driving and mileage needs at ~120 miles/day. In theory, a 215 mile EV would be fine for me almost 100% of the time. That said, I'm likely to purchase the larger battery for a few reasons:

* "Almost 100% of the time". But not always. The added insurance of a larger battery pack is worth some peace of mind for those extraordinary occasions.
* As I generally keep cars a long time, I see a larger battery pack as a buffer against eventual battery degradation. While a brand new pack rated at 215 miles will likely be just fine right now, it could get uncomfortably close with 5+ years of degradation, poor weather, etc.

Real world experience with Teslas has shown the average person only sees about a 5% degradation even the few who reported being out close to 100K miles still only saw about 5%:
Battery Degradation Level In Tesla Model S Only 5% After 30,000 Miles?

It's a California thing. Housing costs skyrocket in the cities, so people move farther and farther away from their jobs to be able to afford housing.

It isn't just a California thing, it's common to cities all over the west. I knew quite a number of people in Seattle who had hellacious commutes and the Seattle freeway system is absolutely horrible compared to Los Angeles. The designers of Seattle's freeway system are all graduated of the Marquis de Sade school of traffic design.

 

[Red Sage]

I'm not going to mince words like the others: you recall incorrectly.

Your opinion. Enjoy it. I'll stick with mine.

But...

I believe I first heard the statement in an interview where Elon went into the Reuters offices. Several of their editors were there... But he was only speaking with one in particular who asked the questions, a blonde woman who wore glasses.

 

[SageBrush]

Your opinion. Enjoy it. I'll stick with mine.

But...

I believe I first heard the statement in an interview where Elon went into the Reuters offices. Several of their editors were there... But he was only speaking with one in particular who asked the questions, a blonde woman who wore glasses.

You pose an interesting riddle, so I'll take my three guesses:

You work for Tesla ?
My second guess is that the woman is very attractive
My third guess is that you are that woman

 

[Red Sage]

You pose an interesting riddle, so I'll take my three guesses:

You work for Tesla ?
My second guess is that the woman is very attractive
My third guess is that you are that woman

I am not, nor have I ever been, a candidate for employment of Tesla Motors. Though really...? After getting severely burned out at another company where I felt like I was on a treadmill for nine years... I probably should have applied at Tesla a long time ago. I might still apply for a job there, or at SpaceX... But that would likely mean you guys would never hear from me again. At least, not in any of these forums.

I am undoubtedly male, at least as far as I can tell. It is amazing that so many guys in Los Angeles find me attractive though. I figure either I look a lot better than I think I do, or those guys have much lower standards of femininity than I do, or those guys are blind in one eye can't see out the other and think anyone with long hair must be female, or there are a whole lot more gay dudes than I thought there were...

Once again, I'm not a chick. But it seems that some guys mistake me for one. Chicks look WAY better than I do. I look in the mirror and see an old, slow, fat guy staring back. Other people look at me and see a young, fit, attractive person. Did I mention I think they might be blind?

 

[Red Sage]

There will probably be another psychological barrier crossed when the 90D gets a combined EPA range over 300 miles, it's already rated that for highway mileage. 300 miles is the low end range for ICEs. Most I've seen are around 400 miles highway range.

I believe most people really don't notice how often they used to fill their cars with gasoline. Most are unaware of how the traditional automobile industry has openly fought against mandated improvements to fuel economy for the past 40 years. Until very recently, BMW 3-Series vehicles powered by gasoline were all pretty grotesquely horrible at fuel economy. That is, a 400 mile range was unlikely to be seen in them until 2012.

Tesla Motors' cars are likely to pair their highest capacity battery packs with their greatest Performance trims.
Take a look at what the maximum range would be if the Tesla Model ☰ only had 75% of the range of performance variants of other cars in the segment.

228 -- Cadillac ATS-V (304 miles)
237 -- BMW M3 (316 miles)
254 -- AUDI S4 (338 miles)
270 -- Mercedes-AMG C63 S (360 miles)​

I think most of us here think that spread of ranges, 228-to-270 miles, is more-or-less what they expect to see from the Model ☰. My point is that this is Tesla Motors' long awaited Generation III series of vehicles. They are the cars that Elon Musk foresaw ten years ago as the iteration of technology that would finally match the perceived ease-of-use for ICE vehicles. I would be more surprised that he chose to settle for 75% as an initial maximum, as opposed to at least matching the least of these competitors in range. And I would prefer the full 304-to-360 mile spread were approached, and aggressively so. If the official EPA range for a Tesla Model ☰ P100D were 320 miles or more, a very heavy gauntlet would have been cast for Defenders of the ICE to take on.

 

[wdolson]

I believe most people really don't notice how often they used to fill their cars with gasoline. Most are unaware of how the traditional automobile industry has openly fought against mandated improvements to fuel economy for the past 40 years. Until very recently, BMW 3-Series vehicles powered by gasoline were all pretty grotesquely horrible at fuel economy. That is, a 400 mile range was unlikely to be seen in them until 2012.

Tesla Motors' cars are likely to pair their highest capacity battery packs with their greatest Performance trims.
Take a look at what the maximum range would be if the Tesla Model ☰ only had 75% of the range of performance variants of other cars in the segment.

228 -- Cadillac ATS-V (304 miles)
237 -- BMW M3 (316 miles)
254 -- AUDI S4 (338 miles)
270 -- Mercedes-AMG C63 S (360 miles)​

I think most of us here think that spread of ranges, 228-to-270 miles, is more-or-less what they expect to see from the Model ☰. My point is that this is Tesla Motors' long awaited Generation III series of vehicles. They are the cars that Elon Musk foresaw ten years ago as the iteration of technology that would finally match the perceived ease-of-use for ICE vehicles. I would be more surprised that he chose to settle for 75% as an initial maximum, as opposed to at least matching the least of these competitors in range. And I would prefer the full 304-to-360 mile spread were approached, and aggressively so. If the official EPA range for a Tesla Model ☰ P100D were 320 miles or more, a very heavy gauntlet would have been cast for Defenders of the ICE to take on.

I know I'm weird enough to document every time I put fuel in the car, but I think most people pay attention to highway range when on a road trip. Quite a few sedans today get 500-600 miles on the highway. As I've said before, the Model 3 will be compared to luxury sedans and other EVs, but a large percentage of the buyers will be moving up from Camrys, Accords, and other less expensive sedans. A quick check showed most of those have 500+ miles of highway range.

This thread gives some idea of the Model 3 market:
What type of car is Model 3 replacing for you?

There are people saying they were coming from Fords, Pontiac, Honda, Chrysler, VW, etc. 40% said ICE sedan. There were some people coming from luxury cars, but a large number are moving up from much cheaper cars. The same phenomenon that happened with the Model S.

I generally expect a minimum of 400 miles highway range from an ICE and I think most people do too. Yes there are some ICEs down around 300, but they are the bottom end of the bell curve.

I expect Tesla will do the same thing with the Model 3 they did with the Model S/X and offer the performance model with the biggest battery, but there will be a non-performance model with the same battery that will get the best range of the Model 3. It would be nuts if they didn't. Over 50% of Tesla's market today is the 90D and those cars have the best resale value. I've been watching the used market for the last year. Used 85D/90Ds are rare and when they do come up, the 2015s are selling for around 90% of their new price which is all the more amazing because those cars all got the $7500 tax credit too.

 

[JRP3]

Your opinion. Enjoy it. I'll stick with mine.

But...

I believe I first heard the statement in an interview where Elon went into the Reuters offices. Several of their editors were there... But he was only speaking with one in particular who asked the questions, a blonde woman who wore glasses.

Professor Simons noted: "People tend to place greater faith in the accuracy, completeness and vividness of their memories than they probably should."

Memory is not as reliable we think | BPS

 

[zenmaster]

If the official EPA range for a Tesla Model ☰ P100D were 320 miles or more, a very heavy gauntlet would have been cast for Defenders of the ICE to take on.

I don't think it works that way. Most people don't have a need for more than 60 miles per day on their average commute and can charge their car each night. The benefit of range is for road trips where you wouldn't have to stop multiple times instead of just 1 in 500 miles. These stops add hours. Further, to get any decent range on the Model S, you must drive much slower than traffic.

 

[JeffK]

Quite a few sedans today get 500-600 miles on the highway.

I'll be moving up from a 2007 prius and I'm only averaging 300-400 miles per tank depending on the weather.

 

[garsh]

Most people don't have a need for more than 60 miles per day on their average commute and can charge their car each night. The benefit of range is for road trips

As a current Leaf owner with a 60 mile round-trip commute, let me just say that I'll be ordering the largest battery possible on my Model 3. There are so many times when I come home after work, and then have to make another trip that evening for an after-school event. Or when I'd like to visit relatives on the weekend who live 50 miles away. Just can't do those trips in the Leaf. I can't wait to have an electric car with good range.

 

[CarlitoDoc]

The only "long" trips we'll be taking involve 140 miles (over mountain passes) to Bellevue/Seattle or 185 miles to Portland. Even on the latter option, the first "charging" option will be 104 miles away from home; therefore I am assuming that in "real world" driving conditions, a 180 mile range will save my behind. Having said that, I will opt for the highest capacity battery if given the option. My daily commute is less than 15 miles.....

 

[WATTS-UP]

A 60KW will give you the extra range ( compared to the Leaf ). Even in an emergency we made it to the Supercharger in Newark DE to do a quick charge for 25 minutes to get us the range to make it to Baltimore. Ninety Eight percent to the time normal travel is less than one hundred miles, when I do go over it comes down to planing the trip. I can only think of one time that having an 85 would have been cool.

 

[ucmndd]

I'll be moving up from a 2007 prius and I'm only averaging 300-400 miles per tank depending on the weather.

Larger cars (with larger fuel tanks) tend to do better in this regard. My Passat TDI can do 850 miles on a tank without much fanfare. About the only thing better I can imagine is never going to a gas station again.

 

[SageBrush]

I'll be moving up from a 2007 prius and I'm only averaging 300-400 miles per tank depending on the weather.

The Prius tank is 12 gallons IIRC and combined EPA is ~ 45 -50 mpg so for the average driver 500 mile range would be typical.

You may be talking about distance between fill-ups. It is not at all uncommon for people to routinely add fuel when the meter is somewhere in the last quarter tank. The Prius encourages this behaviour by sounding an 'add fuel' buzzer when ~ two gallons remain in the tank.

Two gallons: right about the range of a fully charged 24 kWh LEAF

 

[JeffK]

it's 11.9 but with a bladder so you won't necessarily fill it to 11.9 and there's no way to know if it expanded or not before the nozzle shuts off. The 2007 epa is 46 city/highway average so 500 miles would be if all conditions were ideal and I wasn't an aggressive driver with A/C on (I'm not a hypermiler). The prius low fuel warning is notoriously inaccurate due to the bladder system so it's dangerous to assume there's actually two gallons in the system. There are tons of complaint about this and people running out of gas on the owners forums.

Speaking of distance between fill ups is exactly what we must be talking about because it's unwise to drive until the vehicle is completely out of gas. Same is true with EVs. One must gauge themselves between charging stations.

I personally have zero gas stations on my path between my home and work. If I had an EV, there's power both at my house and free EV charging at my workplace. Having a gasoline car, even my Prius, is super inconvenient comparatively.

 

[dhanson865]

The Prius tank is 12 gallons IIRC and combined EPA is ~ 45 -50 mpg so for the average driver 500 mile range would be typical.

You may be talking about distance between fill-ups. It is not at all uncommon for people to routinely add fuel when the meter is somewhere in the last quarter tank. The Prius encourages this behavior by sounding an 'add fuel' buzzer when ~ two gallons remain in the tank.

Gen II Prius is 2004-2009 and has a bladder that will only accept 7 to 9 gallons after you've had it for a couple of years.*
Gen III Prius 2010-2015 has a normal gas tank that will hold about 11 gallons
Prius C has a smaller gas tank that holds about 10 gallons

* To add to the fun if you drive to truly empty the bladder will fold in on itself and reduce it's capacity further. You can pump more gas in until it spills out the neck but it still won't undo the folds. To avoid folds some put gas in with 2 gallons remaining, the ones that don't end up with the folds and still get similar results.

I think you are vastly overestimating the range of a Prius of any age. They are more fuel efficient and if you hypermile one you can do a 99 mpg tank to get insane tanks but those aren't typical.

GenIII Top 10
1. bwilson4web - 91.8 mpg (1000.8 miles) (10.9 gallons)
2. Ferls80 - 81.1 mpg (750.0 miles)
3. Mark57 - 79.3 mpg (805.2 miles)
4. markabele - 79.1 mpg (818.7 miles)
5. Kore971 - 78.0 mpg (830.9 miles) (10.6 gallons)
6. kalome - 77.3 mpg (703.6 miles)
7. nfujii - 76.0 mpg (550.9 miles)
8. kdkuhns3 - 75.1 mpg (703.1 miles)
9. MattPersman - 75.0 mpg (553.8 miles)
10. mozdzen - 73.5 mpg (701.9 miles)

Prius c Top 10
1. ufourya - 99.9 mpg (501.1 miles)
2. vincent1449p - 90.7 mpg (871.8 miles) (9.6 gallons)
3. skayaks - 83.0 mpg (583.4 miles)
4. CHACHYONTOP - 81.1 mpg (607.9 miles)
5. xraydoug - 79.7 mpg (700.6 miles)
6. hcpc - 73.3 mpg (548.9 miles)
7. Optical Illusions - 69.4 mpg (582.1 miles)

GenII Top 10
1. bwilson4web - 73.8 mpg (507 miles)
2. Tony Schaefer - 72.2 mpg (662 miles) (9.1 gallons)
3. retired4999 - 71.3 mpg (626 miles)
4. Agent J - 70.2 mpg (808 miles)
5. roadpup - 67.5 mpg (587 miles)
6. jaquimo - 65.3 mpg (508 miles)
7. dhanson865 - 63.3 mpg (504 miles)
8. miscrms - 60.1 mpg (523 miles)
9. sagebrush - 59.5 mpg (633 miles)
10. Corwyn - 58.7 mpg (655 miles)

for every 500 mile tank I've gotten (which was maybe 2 or 3, I've had dozens of 400 mile tanks to offset it. I consider a 450 mile tank impressive in a GenII with bladder issues).

 

[JeffK]

I consider a 450 mile tank impressive in a GenII with bladder issues).

Me too, I was greatly disappointed after purchasing the car (used).

 

[dhanson865]

Me too, I was greatly disappointed after purchasing the car (used).

Yeah, I've never put more than 9 gallons in my Prius and my worst was 7.1 gallons. On my 500 mile tanks I used around 7.8 to 7.9 gallons and was driving on fumes.

More than once I've poured gas on the ground / by way of the side of my car, while trying to fill the tank and having the gas overfill, backup out the filler tube. And that was around 8 gallons pumped. I've learned to watch it after 7.2 gallons pumped and stop when it reaches the filler door if I want a true full tank.

In reality I never need a 500 mile tank so I just fill it up to 90% and avoid the filling issue unless I'm going for a record. (and I don't drive the Prius much anymore, the Leaf is my primary)

 

[Red Sage]

God.

First off, 'most cars' do NOT have an EPA certified combined range in excess of 500 miles. They certainly ought to by now, but that is far from being the case. I may well have pointed this out earlier in this very thread. I have certainly noted that point in threads at the Tesla Motors forum. Bottom line, most traditional automobile manufacturers use smaller fuel tanks, often 13 gallons or less, in their most efficient cars. That artificially cripples their range and keeps urban drivers going back to the pump more often than should be necessary.

I have made the point before that the contemporary competitors for Tesla Generation III vehicles will be: BMW 3-Series, Acura TLX, AUDI A4, Cadillac ATS, Infiniti Q50, Jaguar XE, Lexus IS, and Mercedes-Benz C-Class. Exactly NONE of those match the roughly 700 mile range of a Prius. And unless you get the diesel versions it is highly unlikely they will even approach a 500 mile range under the best of conditions.

Yes, those who may have bought less expensive versions of Toyota Camry, Honda Accord, Nissan Altima, Chevrolet Malibu, Ford Fusion, Hyundai Sonata, Kia Optima, or Volkswagen Passat may choose to move up-market to Tesla Model ☰. That doesn't change the target market for the vehicle itself. I doubt Tesla Motors will ever build a car to take on the Accord/Camry segment. I expect that a later Tesla Generation IV vehicle series will take on the perennial worldwide best seller, Toyota Corolla and its competitors. Such as Ford Focus, Volkswagen Golf, as they all approach or exceed 1,000,000 units per year. There is no need for Model ☰ to match any of those cars on range at this point. Better to maintain a focus on matching and surpassing the best available ICE offerings in a specific market segment.

 

[PJFW8]

talking range... I need roughly 300 to 90% charge with decent utility in the Carolinas. I could really use 350. I dream of 600 so I only destination charge. This isn't California. I will adapt, but nothing beats range in a world of slow, infrequent and potentially crowded Superchargers. Get 215 if you want, but don't minimize peoples concerns. I'm on my 2nd extended range plug-in both of which had a near 600 mile range. I really want to dump the gas. Range is gold to me. When I get my 3 it will have the farthest range I can get.