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Tesla confirms Model 3 will have less than 60kWh battery option

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Still not confirmed yet, but now that we know the two packs are 310 miles and 220 miles of range, we can combine with Elon's talk about 75 kWh being the largest size possible. This implies the pack is 53kWh, right at the middle of 52-54 kWh I estimated.

What I didn't guess is that Tesla would drop the kWh marketing designation (otherwise this would almost certainly be named the "55kWh").

I look forward to finding out the actual numbers. The car is also surprisingly light (lighter than Bolt), which would help low speed efficiency (and given lower range implies base Model 3 has a smaller pack than the Bolt's 60kWh usable).

Math already done before shows that Tesla doesn't have to beat the i3 to reach its range goals. The original i3 is 231Wh/mi (18.7kWh usable/81 EPA miles). The new 2017 33kWh version (27.2 kWh usable) gets 239Wh/mi (27.2kWh/114 mi).
Official: 2017 BMW i3 Gets 33 kWh Battery, Range Increases To 114 Miles

To reach 215 EPA miles of range using the same consumption as i3 requires 49.7-51.4kWh usable. Tesla has ~95% usable, so that bumps it to ~52-54kWh. My bet has been a "55kWh" battery. The way Tesla can match the i3 is by better highway efficiency (i3 depends on city efficiency to get a high combined number).
 
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Still not confirmed yet, but now that we know the two packs are 310 miles and 220 miles of range, we can combine with Elon's talk about 75 kWh being the largest size possible. This implies the pack is 53kWh, right at the middle of 52-54 kWh I estimated.

What I didn't guess is that Tesla would drop the kWh marketing designation (otherwise this would almost certainly be named the "55kWh").
I look forward to finding out the actual numbers. The car is also surprisingly light (lighter than Bolt), which would help low speed efficiency (and given lower range implies base Model 3 has a smaller pack than the Bolt's 60kWh usable).

I spoke with Investor Relations last night ... more likely the base battery is smaller than expected for higher margin.
The math works perfectly well if you use 70 kWh with 310 miles range and 50 kWh with 220 miles range ... YMMV. :cool:
 
Is that using the EPA rating for the Roadster? Because the methodology has changed since then and I think it would get a lower EPA range rating today.
Wikipedia (Tesla Roadster - Wikipedia) reports it as:

According to the U.S. EPA, the Roadster can travel 244 miles (393 km) on a single charge of its lithium-ion battery pack, and can accelerate from 0 to 60 mph (0 to 97 km/h) in 3.7 or 3.9 seconds depending on the model. The Roadster's efficiency, as of September 2008, was reported as 120 MPGe (2.0 L/100 km). It uses 135 Wh/km (21.7 kW·h/100 mi, 13.5 kW·h/100 km or 490 kJ/km) battery-to-wheel, and has an efficiency of 88% on average.​

My own (Roadster 2.0) historic usage has been in the neighborhood of 231wh/mi, according to the car's trip meter. My "Range mode" charge (94% SoC) displays at about 214 miles, but that's after 7 1/2 years and 43,000 miles.
 
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Tesla is claiming 120kg weight difference between base and long range. If there is a 25kWh difference in battery size, that's 4.8 kg/kWh. Bare cells are probably about 3.7 kg/Kwh, assuming they're coming in about 270Wh/g. So about a 25 percent penalty for cell holders, interconnects, and extra cooling system, which seems reasonable. I'm assuming that if there are 3 modules in the long range pack, there are just two in the base. This strongly suggests that base system is just over 50 kWh, and the long-range system is perhaps slightly over 75 kWh.