Tesla confirms Model 3 will have less than 60kWh battery option

[dsvick]

Seems unlikely. I can push a car by myself. I can't push one to highway speeds.

Push harder?

 

[JeffK]

Push harder?

off a cliff?

 

[scaesare]

I'd have to do some math, but I'm almost positive that the huge weight difference will be a greater resistive force (rolling resistance) than drag, even at highway speeds. In areas like mine, the road gradients amplify this power burden.

Likely not the case.

This site: ecomodder has an interesting calculator that determines percentages of power required to overcome various forces. I also attempts to estimate gasoline MPG, but you can ignore that for this discussion.

I plugged in some estimates for Model 3 (80% weight and frontal area of Model S), and a Cd of .21. I left the rest of the values at defaults.

You can see that rolling resistance scales linearly with speed, whereas aero power losses are exponential:

By the time you get to ~55mph speeds, aero begins to dominate, even with a slippery car like the Model 3 is anticipated to be.

 

[Red Sage]

Plus, an EV can more readily overcome the rolling resistance at low speed due to the generous availability and application of torque.

 

[JRP3]

That's not relevant since the force required is the same per lb regardless of motive force.

 

[shrspeedblade]

Yes, but have you ever tried pushing one up an incline?

 

[RobStark]

 

[scaesare]

Interesting data point on the earnings call yesterday: Elon stated that 70GWh of battery production from the GF is enough for 1 million Model 3's. That averages 70kWh per car.

So, assuming 2 pack sizes, one would have to be above 70kWh if the base is under 60kWh, as is the premise of this thread.

Now we can add speculating on the relative distribution of the pack mix as well as pack sizes to our discussion here!

Given that Elon suggested the avg. selling price of the car would be ~$42K, one wonders how many are assumed to be opting for a larger battery...

 

[JeffK]

Interesting data point on the earnings call yesterday: Elon stated that 70GWh of battery production from the GF is enough for 1 million Model 3's. That averages 70kWh per car.

So, assuming 2 pack sizes, one would have to be above 70kWh if the base is under 60kWh, as is the premise of this thread.

Now we can add speculating on the relative distribution of the pack mix as well as pack sizes to our discussion here!

Given that Elon suggested the avg. selling price of the car would be ~$42K, one wonders how many are assumed to be opting for a larger battery...

I also said this and everyone shot me down... naysayers I tell you.

 

[Model 3]

Elon stated that 70GWh of battery production from the GF is enough for 1 million Model 3's.

Incorrect. He said that it would be enough for 1 million *cars*. That is Model S+3+X - and maybe also Y.

So you have to count in "a few" Model S+X with 75,90(?) and 100kWh packs into this.

 

[Lloyd]

~*sigh*~

The 2014 Toyota RAV4 EV had a 50 kWh battery pack with 41.8 kWh available for use. It achieved a 103 mile EPA rated range. This car used a Tesla Motors drivetrain and battery pack, though the motor was rated at only 154 HP. It weighed roughly 400 lbs less than the Model S 60.

Something here does not compute.

My wife drives one of these, and I can get > 150 miles on a full charge at freeway speeds easily.

 

[MP3Mike]

Incorrect. He said that it would be enough for 1 million *cars*. That is Model S+3+X - and maybe also Y.

So you have to count in "a few" Model S+X with 75,90(?) and 100kWh packs into this.

Yeah, but last we heard the Gigafactory cells were only going to be used in TE and the Model 3. Model S/X cells are still going to come from Panasonic in Japan. (Continue to use the 18650 cells.)

 

[ecarfan]

Model S/X cells are still going to come from Panasonic in Japan. (Continue to use the 18650 cells.)

For now...

I think it is clear that in the future S/X cells will come from a Tesla Gigafactory. When that will occur, I do not know.

 

[Model 3]

Yeah, but last we heard the Gigafactory cells were only going to be used in TE and the Model 3. Model S/X cells are still going to come from Panasonic in Japan. (Continue to use the 18650 cells.)

Yes, but from the Q&A - both quotes are from http://seekingalpha.com/article/4048698-tesla-tsla-q4-2016-results-earnings-call-transcript

Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.

Yes, (53:55) you've seen the average pack sizes, but if you say it's somewhere around the 60-kilowatt-hour to 70-kilowatt-hour level, then you need 70 gigawatt-hours to get to 1 million units. And we think that's the sell (54:17) level. And then we think the current Gigafactory should actually be able to do in excess of 100 gigawatt-hours. So, that leaves – probably a big – Gigafactory 1 can manage – can support – it can support probably 1 million vehicles a year, plus maybe something like 30 gigawatt-hours or so of storage, depending upon how fast the storage market grows. But really, I think the storage market's probably going to grow maybe twice the rate of the automotive business. Something like that.

Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.

Yes. I currently think that we should build to 500,000 vehicles next year and 1 million vehicles by 2020. That's 500,000 vehicles in total, Model S, Model 3, and Model X combined next year should – as far as the information I have at my disposal right now, I believe that is the most likely outcome. And then, with a couple more years, getting to 1 million units. That seems also the most likely outcome. Yes.

So he is clearly speaking about one million cars - S+3+X - in 2020. And as @ecarfan said - what you said is "for now".

 

[MP3Mike]

For now...

I think it is clear that in the future S/X cells will come from a Tesla Gigafactory. When that will occur, I do not know.

My guess is sometime after the Gigafactory makes more cells than can be used by the Model 3 and TE. (And Panasonic lets them out of the contract for 18650 cells.)

 

[arnis]

if you say it's somewhere around the 60-kilowatt-hour to 70-kilowatt-hour level, then you need 70 gigawatt-hours to get to 1 million units.

So guys, can we go back to the near 90kWh packs for Model 3 stories? We have 75-90-100 on S/X. Clearly all above Elon's average.
How many 75-95kWh packs for Model 3 can be sold (while having a million Teslas in total) to get down to upper end of Elon's average (70kWh average per Tesla) with 55kWh base versions? Let's assume Model S+X sales will be 1:5 compared to Model 3 (or any other realistic ratio). Need to make assumption what is the average S+X battery size ordered. My estimation 85kWh as an average (due to larger X and Model 3 preference over cheapest Model S).

Nice table with 75 80 85 90 95 on X-axis and numeric value "maximum number of vehicles" below it. Rounded to four zeros. Negative values accepted.
Let's assume only one capacity value above 55kWh will be offered (like with Model S&X, 100 model is actually advanced design of 90, that will most likely kill 90 as soon as new design production capacity is not a limitation)
Possible to add different S+X : 3 ratios on Y-axis (1:4 1:6 1:7 1:8)

 

[electracity]

Yeah, but last we heard the Gigafactory cells were only going to be used in TE and the Model 3. Model S/X cells are still going to come from Panasonic in Japan. (Continue to use the 18650 cells.)

When they switch the cells, they will probably switch to gigafactory packs too. Perhaps just a longer variant of the model 3 pack.

If they have a lot of powerpack demand they may not want to switch for several years due to insufficient capacity to make both S/X cells and packs along with Tesla Energy products.

 

[smilepak]

Okay... as you wish. Here is the same comparison table, but with a new column for curb weight, sorted from heaviest to lightest:

In general it appears that, when an EV's curb weight drops below 3,000 lbs., its EPA energy efficiency rating starts to exceed 3.5 MPkWh. IF that pattern holds true, to achieve a whopping 4.267 MPkWh, the Model 3 with a 75 kWh pack would need to weigh at least 35% less than a Model S 75D. As I said, that would be an amazing level of efficiency.

Hope this helps!

You can add to the list Tesla Model S 70D is 238 Miles rating I believe.

 

[FlatSix911]

Tesla Model 3: Elon Musk hints at possible heads-up display, releases details about screen, battery, and more

Musk also briefly hinted at the size of the Model 3’s battery packs – though we have to read into it.
Tesla currently produces battery packs between 75 and 100 kWh for the Model S and X. The Model 3 will account for the vast majority of the battery packs produced by Tesla at the Gigafactory and Musk said yesterday that he expects it will end up with an average between 60 and 70 kWh per pack.

The base battery pack for the Model 3 is expected to be less than 60 kWh, but bigger battery options will be available which will bring the average higher. We recently reported that Tesla was testing a Model 3 test mule with a 70 kWh battery pack. It’s not clear if that will be a mid-range or the top range option, but if Musk expects the average pack size to be between 60 and 70 kWh, I wouldn’t be surprised if it ends up being the biggest battery option for the Model 3.

 

[Red Sage]

My wife drives one of these, and I can get > 150 miles on a full charge at freeway speeds easily.

I have no doubt you do. My point is that official EPA testing of Tesla drivetrains seems to consistently be more 'energy thirsty' than what owners experience in the real world. I consider that a bias. Knowing it is in place, it is better to make sure the intended range rating may be reached by providing enough battery capacity to overcome that bias. Aiming for an amount that might just barely make the mark will almost certainly guarantee failure. Those hoping for ultra low energy consumption on the order of 150 Wh/mile to 210 Wh/mile, or averaging below ~192 Wh/mile will be disappointed with a minimal capacity sub-50 kWh battery pack. Even the Hyundai Ioniq EV isn't that efficient.